Commodities Investor. Very Long Oil and Coal.
60% Commodities, 20% Special Sits and 20% Short Garbage.
*Not Investment Advice*
Now kind of a Bitcoin douche!
Oct 30 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
I'm a RE guy & have followed Trump since I was a teenager.
I've also provided flawless Political commentary this season.
Assuming he wins, here is how I see it playing out & why the market has alot of things 'wrong':
1/2 the Country has TDS & the mArKeT assumes he will be the
Same as Trump 1.0 & PUMP. I don't think people have been LISTENING to his or JD's message. They've been VERY clear that they intend to make gas, groceries & housing more affordable.
The only way to achieve this is to engineer a (hopefully) mild recession.
The Treasury is
Aug 1 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A HORNY wake up to $BTU CRUSHING earnings!
Much better than expected on the 'soft' side of the year.
Reminder - yesterday's closing price had a $2.8B MC and a ~$2B EV.
Highlights:
Earnings of $1.42/share (quarter not annual)
The US. They have their own currency and their own language.
Please adjust his comments via Fx differential if researching.
I'm happy to be part of #COM again (mainly b/c this means I'm ALIVE).
My fave inflections are impatient/grouchy shareholders, debt reduced to a target
Oct 26, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Breaking Coal News: Peabody $BTU acquires rights to Stanmore's $SMR.AX Southern portion of Wards Well tenement.
Deal Highlights:
- $136M in upfront cash
- A contingency royalty of up to $200M based on a variety of factors
- Deal closing in 1H '24 hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-ag…
KEY Element - Peabody will provide usage to Stanmore of it's North Goonyella infrastructure, for Stanmore's use in mining the remainder of Wells Ward (North).
MacGruber take - The North Goonyella infrastructure has been estimated in Company presentations to have a replacement
Oct 14, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Hugely important video.
1. Errryone on Fintwit loves tearing into @chamath, but as an 'All-In' occasional listener, the dude is brilliant.
2. Admitting you've been 'duped' is IMPORTANT, now more than ever.
3. Jared Kushner may have had the most effective run of any American
Government Official of the past 40 years. His 'ideas' and his 'existence' were relentlessly denegrated by the perma-wrongs, despite Lifetime Politicos mishandling of nearly every Middle East Policy.
There are GREAT videos circulating of the intense stupidity of John Kerry.
Jun 5, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
When I read this last week, it immediately clicked, but after a weekend of reflection, I have to state how profound this is.
Sold out for '23, I want to remind that BTU is not a proxy for a play on Coal Indexes.
The opaque nature of their sales, has pointed to multi-year agreements, which underperform indexes in 'up' markets - and might overperform indexes in 'down' markets.
The Mkt is now pricing
Mar 15, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Bought 10K more shares of $BTU, my largest position by far
At ~$23
- $14-$15 of cash at the end of Q1
- NO DEBT
- Greater FCF in '22 than Netflix
- '23 is 90% pre-sold
The best buy on my board
I would also add that for those who can plug their nose and stomach this - that IMO the market has the energy trade completely wrong
This will allow BTU to start buybacks at massively reduced prices. It's absolutely an amazing opportunity if you don't care about the price for
Mar 11, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Some random thoughts on the fall of SIVB and what happens next:
Losers - Banks. Estimates are high as 80% recovery for deposit holders, but this will wound smaller banks, who are the lifeblood of lending to their community.
The lack of faith in 'the system' will cause deposit
holders to convert to Treasuries - or - move to larger banks.
JPM, B of A will be obvious winners.
Winners - Treasuries. Rates will go down as long as there is 'fear' in the system and risk of contagion is high.
The treasury rates are much higher than bank rates, which
Feb 16, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Sold some $BTU $30 Feb-24 puts in the final hour yesterday - a starter position.
I wrote earlier that had the Company simply issued a PR in Mid-December that we'd be debt free by end of Jan, the stock wouldn't have dipped below $30
Being debt free, while great, isn't the end
Game in the slightest...it's merely a cash shuffle
BTU earnings typically take awhile to digest - and I suggested on Tuesday that it may take a week+
The real catalyst - likely in the next 45 days is Surety Resolution and the corresponding Shareholder Retuns.
Selling before
Aug 7, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
As a follow-up to my $BTU debt update, I've now gone further down the rabbit hole
A brief BTU primer:
$2.775B MC
$1B+ Cash
$937M Debt (my calcs)
$270M Hedge Cash returning in 2H
$800M Conservative 2H FCF
