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Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 Profile picture
@MikePMoffatt
May 30 • 6 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Daily reminder that the big international student boom at the college level wasn't due to falls in domestic enrollment, or government cutbacks. Rather, it's a bunch of institutions opening branch campuses in the GTA in an empire-building exercise.

Check out these enrollment #s. Image
There is *no* compelling public policy reason why a college in Sarnia needs to build satellite campuses in Mississauga and Toronto.
Here's the full college enrollment data set, from the Ontario government. Tons of fun stuff in there: data.ontario.ca/dataset/colleg…
RE: Housing. My understanding is that Lambton College (to use them as an example), has a 280 residence spots in Sarnia, and none for their new Mississauga and Toronto campuses.

I'm 99.9% sure that's right, but if it's wrong please let me know.
They'd describe it as "33,000 square feet of classrooms, labs, student areas and administration offices in two buildings."

Some numbers from that Ontario dataset:

Since 2012-13, college enrollment in Ontario is up 61,453.

Since 2012-13, colleges have added 42 satellite campuses, with a combined enrollment of 38,476 students.

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More from @MikePMoffatt

Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 Profile picture
Jun 1
After the @CHRA_ACHRU event, I've been thinking about things like vacancy taxes, and crackdowns on short-term rentals.

As an immediate, temporary response to the current crisis, I think they make a fair bit of sense.

As a long-term policy, they're likely harmful. A thread:
Right now, we have a whole lot of renters (thanks to slow home building and faster-than-expected population growth), and no inventory. In that circumstance, it's logical to want to make sure we're as efficient as possible with housing. No bedroom should go "unused" in a shortage
But there's two long-term problems with hyper-efficiency and trying to drive down vacancies:

1. Efficiency comes at the cost of resilience.
2. A low vacancy market creates a power imbalance between landlords (high power) and renters (low power).
Read 13 tweets
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 Profile picture
Jun 1
The City of Ottawa needs to increase homebuilding by 157% to reach their provincial target. Yet they're taking their sweet time at instituting reforms. Makes zero sense. Image
Though looking at needed housing completion increases, in percentage terms, there are a lot of communities with higher hills to climb than Ottawa. Image
I should also point out that, if anything, these housing targets are too low, as they don't incorporate recent changes to immigration targets, nor do they consider international student enrollments that were higher than forecast in 2022-23.
Read 7 tweets
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 Profile picture
May 31
Morning reminder:
- Over 70,000 people, on net, move out of the GTA (Defined as City of Toronto, Peel, York, Durham and Halton regions) to other parts of Ontario
- This trend continues to grow
- This phenomenon pre-dates the pandemic by several years. Image
And who is leaving the GTA? Mostly people in their early 30s and kids under age 5.

Where are they going? Thorold, Brantford, Woodstock, Tillsonburg, as well as bigger centres like London. Image
The 416 and 905s inability to house their growing populations is causing large strains across rural SW Ontario. Oxford (home to communities like Woodstock, Tillsonburg, and East Zorra) is grappling with land use issues from population growth.

lfpress.com/news/local-new…
Read 4 tweets
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 Profile picture
May 30
This piece makes an elementary mistake I see everywhere. And it's this: it treats "newcomer" and "immigrant" as synonyms, but they're anything but.

Most international newcomers aren't immigrants, and many new immigrants have been living in Canada for a really long time.
Our discourse has this early 20th century idea of international migration... that a newcomer to Canada shows up to Pier 21 or whatever and boom, and obtains permanent residency as an immigrant.

But that's not really how our system functions.
There are many pathways to gain permanent residency... one is through becoming an international student.

Study for four years in Canada, stay for three years under the Post-Graduation Work Permit Program, then immigrate to Canada. Image
Read 9 tweets
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 Profile picture
May 28
Thread on the "musical chairs" effect.

What we're seeing across Southern Ontario metros is folks moving in from Toronto, causing house prices to rise, and existing residents to move to less expensive locales.

A few examples...
Here's metro Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo. Gains about 6,000 people a year, on net, to Toronto. But also loses hundreds to Stratford, London, Brantford, and Woodstock. And nearly *2000* to rural Ontario (shown as "Area outside CMAs).

That exodus is causing a lot of rural sprawl Image
Here's Hamilton. Same story - a net gain of 10,000 from Toronto, but loses to London and Norfolk. Not surprisingly, big net outmigration to Brantford, St. Catharines-Niagara, and rural Ontario. Image
Read 8 tweets
Dr. Mike P. Moffatt 🇨🇦🏅🏅 Profile picture
May 25
I've been seeing a lot of folks on the centre and left cite Vienna as a model for what Ontario's housing system could look like.

And I've got to wonder if everyone has lost their minds.

A thread.
Austria as a country, is experiencing slow population growth. In fact, they're expected to experience population decline very soon.

As such, their need to build more housing is rather limited. Image
In the last 3 months, Ontario's population has grown by 123,747 people.

In the last 5 *years*, Austria's population has grown by 118,447.

Ontario has had more population growth in 3 months than Austria has in 5 years.
Read 14 tweets

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