Patricia Marins Profile picture
May 31, 2023 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
🧵1/9
Kinzhal and Iskander missiles, something similar, but different.

Both missiles reach hypersonic speed, it means above mach 5.
The Kinzhal is air launched, while the Iskander has ground launchers.

But there is a big difference between them: the flight altitude.
Image
Image
2/9
While the Kinzhal is launched at 20km altitude and keep it's flight maneuvering at that zone, the Iskander fly at 40-50km altitude. It makes the missiles completely different and in distinct levels of interceptions.
E.g the Pac-3 has 35km altitude range; Pac-2 (24km) alt. Image
3/9
Is true that the whole flight of a Kinzhal can be tracked by a Patriot Pac-2/Pac-3, and the system analyze it's maneuvers, creating a prediction, but the same can't be done against a Iskander, which can be seen only when the missile directly downards to the target.
4/9
For a Pac-3 it means 35km, or 13-15 seconds considering the speed 2-2.8km/s.
The Pac-3 has 7 seconds of reaction time. So, would left 7-8 to reach the target, counting the flying time. It's really short time because we don't know the distance from the launcher to the target.
5/9
And we are talking about a target maneuvering and releasing decoys.
It's why the Iskander is much more dangerous than a Kinzhal.

The Iskander:

The flight lasts up to 6 min/ distance of 575 km, which is due to the fact that the Iskander maintains Mach 7 in the middle phase. Image
6/9

It doesn't maneuver during the boost phase because leads to a loss of speed, and the control of the rocket is based on programmable control over the entire length of the flight and self-guidance using the proportional navigation method only in the terminal phase.
7/9
The midcourse phase is a transition period where the rocket moves mainly in a ballistic trajectory.
The maneuvers there do not significantly change the trajectory of the flight in the midcourse phase, but it is enough to change the projectile's range by up to 50 km. Image
8/9
The Iskander achieves its greatest maneuverability in the terminal phase, where aerodynamic control is used.

This phase is the period when the missile returns to the denser parts of the atmosphere, which allows it to maneuver using aerodynamic forces and loss of speed. Image
9/9
During the flight, it uses gyros, accelerometers and the GPS module, etc.
During the terminal phase, it changes and the optoelectronic or radar head on board the rocket compares digital maps of the terrain surface with the real image of the terrain, correcting its trajectory.
Note:
The best chances against this kind of missile is if the launcher is <5 sec distance to the target.
During it's terminal phase, depending of the maneuvers, it loss speed, but due to the short time to predictions and still a high speed, the interception remain at a low rate.
Note 2:
Can a Pac-2 Gem intercept a Iskander? Obviously yes, but it's more rare. And an Iris-T SLM? Less chances.

Actually the AD layers in Ukraine put the Pac-3 as the first choice for ballistic missiles in general. The other systems are for cruise and the last layer for drones
Note 3
How many RU has?
Before the war they were manufacturing 60 yearly, but now I think they can reach 80-90 if they solve the INS.
The navigation for this missile had imported components, but recently some monopolies were broken and maybe they solved this problem. Or MAYBE not
Note 4
The Iskander is the most dangerous Russian missile. Later the Kalibr due to it multi speed.
Untill the allies bring a 360 GAN Radar into a ICBS, the Iskander keep being extremely dangerous, and with few true cases of interceptions, differently from the propaganda.
Note 5:
The Ukrainian Grom 2 is similar to the Iskander, but smaller. Months ago the Russian MoD accuse Ukraine of using the Grom 2. For me the Grom 2 was the response for the attack on Crimes bridge. The only thing able to by pass all the ADs on the way.

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More from @pati_marins64

Jan 5
The Russians pay half the amount for a 152mm shell compared to what the Germans pay for a 30mm ammo.

A while back, I wrote a post about Rheinmetall selling their Caracal 4x4 to the German government for over $600,000. Recently, I've been looking into the variations in ammunition costs among Western companies.

Rheinmetall is asking for over $600 for a Gepaed 35mm round, which is the same price the Russians are paying for a 152mm artillery round. But it doesn't stop there. Rheinmetall also sold 600,000 30mm rounds to be used in the PUMA IFV for $1,000 each.

In all three of these overpriced sales, the client was the German government. To put it in perspective, the US ordered and paid $108 for each round back in 2017. Obviously, costs vary depending on the type of ammo, but $1,000 for a single 30mm round? This puts a burden on the German taxpayers.

There's a concern that Europe wouldn't be able to sustain a war with these prices. They could bankrupt any country before troops are even prepared for combat. The focus here is not on the quality, but rather the sustainable cost during a real war.
A single medium Cal cannon can fire 5,000 rounds in less than one minute. How can pay that bill?Image
Image
Just s personal feeling.

Countries with a smaller industry, mainly light armored vehicles, like the Baltics, had no chance to sell anything. The big sharks just eat the EU budget with high costs, collaborating to a higher concentrated market.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 13, 2023
Yesterday, a video was released on some Russian channels, supposedly recorded in Omsk.

Omsktransmash doesn't work with any MLRS except the TOS-1.

Since June, they haven't been producing new batches of tanks anymore.
Is it now KBTM refurbishing Uragans? Highly unlikely.

These… https://t.co/HZHNgaJR7atwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This potential military collaboration between former Soviet republics and Russia holds significant importance for the outcome of war.

These nations possess a wide range of armored vehicles, hundreds of artillery systems, and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

They boast a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
More about the Russian and the former Soviet central republics.

Russia continues importing military equipment despite Western sanctions:



Russia supplies military equipment to Uzbekistan:

https://t.co/kYLUoAeuEU

Russia supplies military technical… https://t.co/rGbNtRi6v5novastan.org/en/non-classe/…
kun.uz/en/news/2021/1…
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 7, 2023
Omsktransmash has finished the modernization of a batch of T-80BVM tanks, which are now on their way to Ukraine.

This marks the second batch of tanks in less than 30 days. The previous batch consisted of T90M tanks.

The frequency and size of these batches confirm my previous… https://t.co/xJsMfYHqvHtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mass production of SOSNA-U devices has indeed put an end to the previous bottleneck in Russia's tank production.

Some months ago, I had discussed the projected waiting time of 2-5 months for these devices. Regrettably, it appears that the allies have missed this window of… https://t.co/spOEBt16jOtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Image
Image
Actually, the lack of equipment for Ukraine resulted from serious mistakes. It's a political will, but we need to look a bit earlier.

The Ukrainian Malyshev tank factory was indeed a reputable facility with the capacity to produce hundreds of tanks yearly.

Moreover, Ukraine… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 3, 2023
It appears that The time windows for an attrition war against Russia was missed.

Months ago, I wrote about the three biggest Russian factories idling their production due to a shortage of electronics.

()

Now, the situation is just the opposite. The… https://t.co/GUxFlOOGte https://t.co/XMV8tDch3k
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…


Recent Govt visit to Omsktransmash.
Recent video about the work on Uraltransmash
Read 4 tweets
Jun 2, 2023
🧵1/11
Patriot still has the same failures as 30y ago.
This thread is specially about the American tax payer, who deserve to spend their money on something that works and a transparent company. These systems cost billions.

Well, to understand this, we must come back to 1991.
2/11
During the 1991 Gulf War, the public was led to believe the that the Patriot had near-perfect performance, intercepting 45 of 47 Scud missiles.
The truth was a system w failures and only 9% of successful interceptions.
The company blamed a software

washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…
3/11
During the Iraqi Freedom:
The command reported that the Patriot missile defense system, scored a perfect nine for nine in interceptions.

The truth was that Iraq launched ballistics and cruise missiles, but Patriots didn't intercept any.

armscontrol.org/act/2003-11/pr…
Read 15 tweets
Jun 1, 2023
1/3
Apparently the US want to test some aspects of IBCS in Ukraine.

The Pentagon sent an
Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD), Battle Command System (IBCS) and an Engagement Operations Center (EOC) for Ukraine.
If it works, would mean huge advance.

breakingdefense.com/2023/04/pentag…
2/3
The IBCS will integrate multiple sensors and weapon systems into a single network, enabling faster decision-making and more efficient engagement of targets in multi-domain battle operations.
A completely independent Fire Control system operating on a powerful radar network. Image
3/3
What change?
Processing speed and capacity. The integration on Gallium Nitride (GaN) radars and GaN processing networks, should give few more seconds against hypersonic missiles and better use of other systems to hit targets.
It raises the interception chances significantly.
Read 4 tweets

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