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Paul Maidowski Profile picture
@_ppmv
May 31, 2023 • 17 tweets • 17 min read • Read on X
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Pandemic policy 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023:
2. Our friends in Hollywood work hard to model the real world for us through popular culture. Winning by attrition describes sarbecovirus and human monkeypox virus (hMPXV) policy quite well, whether you think of either virus as pandemic or newly ‘endemic.’ ImageImage
3. These very human dynamics are fascinating to systems thinkers. Two viruses - the poxvirus in its evolutionary infancy, not yet efficiently airborne, the coronavirus evolving fast already - are starting to downregulate the exuberant expression of humanity on this lovely planet.
4. By July 2020, @mylesbyrne saw SARS-CoV as “Wolbachia for humans,” an apt metaphor to ecologically literate people. It may be humane to slow or even arrest it by policy - I think most people would prefer “living without Covid.”

The assessment is less clear at population level.
@mylesbyrne 5. In this 2022 @ClubOfRome Berlin event, Dennis Meadows proposed to banks and policymakers one simple action: invest 10% of the money invested in research on how to sustain growth into research on how to manage equitable, peaceful and controlled decline. ImageImageImageImage
@mylesbyrne @ClubOfRome 6. The 1% rule holds for ClubofRome events too. Assume that in 100 people who talk about a given question - here limits to sustainability -, maybe one understands it. The most interesting feature of the SARS virus is to give visual cues on who the 1% are. Image
@mylesbyrne @ClubOfRome 7. Inside joke: @P_Graichen misreads Limits to Growth. The lesson of the 1972 report was the opposite of his popular reading. A system runs out of problem-solving skills (its "ability to cope") long before physical limits like climate, ecology are reached. ImageImage
@ClubOfRome @P_Graichen 8. Dennis Meadows said in 2006 that within 10-30 years, population, energy and natural resource consumption growth would turn negative. Expect more change within 25 years than over the past 100.

You need less sustainability PR, more real systems thinkers. ImageImageImageImage
@ClubOfRome @P_Graichen 9. Every time Dennis narrates his first presentation in the Smithsonian Institute in DC 1972, he mentions how nervous he was as he thought, "These great people know all we have to say, it's so obvious." - Of course now we know none of them understood (his words). #OnePercent rule ImageImage
10. This causal loop diagram explains why NIAID Dr. Tony Fauci, WHO Chief Scientist @doctorsoumya, and even @CDCDirector Dr. Walensky, here unmasked in a funny photo with @CPHO_Canada, Harjit Sajjan, had to go once they stood up for N95-grade PPE for HCWs. Image
@doctorsoumya @CDCDirector @CPHO_Canada 11. Precise for analysts: @CDCDirector resigned around the time the WHO PHEIC ended, the CDC map was turned green by entirely unscientific algorithms, and after the end of the Public Health Emergency (PHE) and resignation of CoV coordinator Jeff Zients.
@doctorsoumya @CDCDirector @CPHO_Canada 12. How can society go from addiction to adaptation in policy? (1) Eliminate feedbacks that focus governance on the perceived state of the system rather than its real state; (2) concrete actions. As @dbdugger outlines, a challenge even at individual level. ImageImageImageImage
13. War of attrition: In @RealCheckMarker's image, Beta-CoVs hold cells as sex slaves. Unlike influenza, which kills, they replicate smoothly, SARS-CoV-2 thanks to Orf8 histone mimicry. They even protect the cell to extend its lifecycle. Zombie sex slaves. ImageImageImage
@RealCheckMarker 14. I use the analogy of human trafficking, a structurally similar challenge to public international law. Human traffickers or slavers keep victims alive. The controlled cycle can break down as the cell's life cycle ends and cause runway viral replication.
@RealCheckMarker 15. This is why most 'experts', even professors who are no SARS/MERS experts, are blatantly wrong about SARS-CoV. They don't read or draw wrong the conclusions.

I'm sorry, both ethics, epistemology and epidemiology will continue to be complex for a while.
@RealCheckMarker 16. Link: wikipedia articles are great to share because English isn't most people's first language and they come with good translation. Also they are frequently updated (if enough volunteers chime in); really one of the great successes societal learning. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betacoron…
@RealCheckMarker 17. It works both ways. @kali0x2a noted that for example the English-language wikipedia systems analysis entry is strangely unstructured and unprofessional ("and so on"?) Maybe someone wants to edit it?

The German entry is excellent; I translated it here. de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systemana… ImageImageImage

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 19, 2024
1. May do SARS-CoV-2 science threads when I find time. "While association between ABO blood group and infection is well known for many years, lower susceptibility of O blood group to coronaviruses had already been reported nearly 20 years ago for SARS-CoV" degruyter.com/document/doi/1…
2. Transplacental SARS-CoV-2 protein Orf8 binds to complement C1q to trigger fetal inflammation - Yes, as we've been saying for years. Orf8 makes SARS (CoV-1/-2) unique among coronaviruses. Let's infect all the kids so we are really, really sure that's bad embopress.org/doi/full/10.10…Image
3. SARS-CoV-2 can trigger a devastating, destructive placental pathology causing placental dysfunction and fetal hypoxia, yet stillbirth is rare. The fetal hypoxia is acute/subacute, apparent as reduced fetal movements. 20% of participants in this study(!) sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Read 8 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Sep 20, 2024
1. The structural parallels of SARS-CoV-2 and HIV-1 were known already 20 years ago, from SARS-CoV-1. Yet COVID-19 policy and even most scientists ignore these parallels, failing to learn key lessons. Fundamentally, genetic recombination drives both pandemics—two typical articles

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2. Don't worry about the specific article—there are hundreds more, and more relevant ones. The lesson here is we face syndemics, overlapping epidemics that cluster with inequity, not just distinct pandemics. All reinforce each other
link.springer.com/article/10.118…
frontiersin.org/journals/micro…
3. Background. There are literally thousands such articles; no one integrates them. That's why as political scientist, for years already, I've been arguing that only institutionalization can help with such complexity. We need a @UNAIDS for SARS-CoV, sorry
Read 29 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Sep 12, 2024
Is bamboo our best chance to sustain modern civilization and slow climate change? No one systematically studies its global potential in food, paper, energy, & construction yet. To build resilient economic and ecosystems, we need to grow bamboo where it is needed, incl Europe 👇☕️ Moso bamboo shoot (phyllostachys edulis)
“Self made” 80 liter air pot design and 12 liter air pot propagation set. Coffee for scale
40 year old moso bamboo in southwestern France grown from seed. Photo Lihua Jiang, www.yunnan-bamboo.com
1. It is no new idea to replace plastic, steel, concrete etc. with bamboo, just as these materials originally replaced timber, clay, and bamboo. When indigenous people in Taiwan move, they plant bamboo before all else, “because it does everything timber does and is much lighter.” Taiwan mountains 台灣新竹
2. Every mountaintop here has its own name in the local - non written - language, to be found on no map. By force or virtue, indigenous people know how to sustain themselves and live within their ecological limit (“habitat”), unlike industrial civilization. Mixed bamboo forest 👇 Image
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Read 32 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Aug 30, 2024
1. Growing bamboo is our best chance to avert climate breakdown: the plants build soil, help biodiversity, avoid GHG emissions, provide food & construction material, sequester carbon 30 times (!) faster than mixed temperate forest. Yet stunningly, no one coordinates this work yet 40 year old moso bamboo in southwestern France grown from seed. Photo Lihua Jiang, www.yunnan-bamboo.com
2. After 40 years of climate science - first AGGG, now IPCC -, everyone feels they know climate. Yet experts only really know their own field. Generalists and practitioners can implement solutions but need experts to develop them. Bamboo as climate solution is entirely unexplored
Two bamboo stands in Zhongshan Expo Park, Taipei
Bamboo species in Tapei botanical garden
3. Last time atmospheric carbon content was as high as today, 16 million years ago, Earth was >3°C warmer than today, the Arctic was ice free, and Iceland had a subtropical climate. People think they know what climate change means, but most really don't. mdpi.com/2673-4834/5/2/…
Read 47 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Aug 21, 2024
We’ve shared this for years, it was known or suspected even before the pandemic from SARS-CoV-1. Friends of we’re going to learn at this rate, ignoring prepandemic science, populations worldwide will get into serious trouble
Background. Thanks for outstanding science communications @vipintukur
I'd like to delete my account, but then a sizable fraction of the early Covid twitter scicomm documentation - to show what was known when - would be gone. As far as I know, no one else with even a moderately sized account (>10k followers) shares the same readily available science
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Jun 13, 2024
“Bamboo is our best chance to slow climate breakdown. It can replace drivers of GHG emissions and biodiversity loss (food, construction, concrete, plastic), build soil & allow regrowing rainforest." - Let's test it. Grow bamboo as blueprint for a future ecological civilization 🧵
Moso bamboo (phyllostachys edulis) seedling grown from seed with tap root
Moso bamboo forest in China, stock photo
2. Giant bamboo dwarfs trees. As grass, it grows 30 times (!) faster and can be harvested every year. Timber takes decades; too slow. Stunningly, no one in the west described the unique climate mitigation potential of bamboo yet. - Note the rhizome system:

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3. Climate relevant will be the use in millions of ha of plantations, just like other economically important crops. After two months on this, some significant progress: air pot kindly donated 1 m of their professional U system, so I can test it for bamboo.
Image
Read 39 tweets

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