Job openings edged up in April 2023, but remain close to their level two years ago (in April 2021) and significantly lower than in the height of labor market churn in the pandemic recovery. Layoffs and discharges decreased in April while hires held steady and quits softened.
Job openings have generally been decreasing over the last year, slowly but steadily moving closer to their pre-pandemic levels, though clearly not there yet. Much of the elevated rates we've seen may have been because of the increased labor market churn and not net new demand.
After increasing in March, layoffs dropped in April closer to its February level. Hires held steady in April, while quits continued to edge down.
Layoffs still remain significantly lower than their prepandemic levels while hires and quits are still elevated.
Last month, it appeared that the labor market might be cooling given the rising layoffs in March, but job growth in April and the drop in layoffs in today's report suggest the labor market remains steady and is not rapidly cooling.
Payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, with notable downward revisions in the prior two months. Employment growth is expected to slow as the labor market approaches full employment. The Federal Reserve should get a clear message that we are not in a hot labor market.
The slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.1% in June—ending a 30-month streak of at or below 4.0% unemployment—was largely due to an increase in labor force participation, as more workers sought jobs. Employment increased as the employment-to-population rate held steady.
June's gain of 206,000 jobs is on par with the average gain over the prior 12 months. There were notable increases in health care and social assistance as well as in public sector employment, primarily at the state and local level.
Poverty increased sharply in 2022 due to safety net cutbacks and inflation. Official poverty measurement misses the valuable tax credits and other assistance provided in the wake of the pandemic. Likewise it also misses the huge uptick in poverty when they were allowed to expire.
Comprehensive measures of poverty—specifically those based on the Supplemental Poverty Measures—showed very sharp increases. The unfortunate headline from today's report is that child poverty more than doubled between 2021 and 2022, rising from 5.2% to 12.4%.
The spike in child poverty was severe, erasing nearly all of the gains made from the valuable pandemic safety net measures, notably the expanded child tax credit. The spike was most striking for Black and Hispanic children, hitting 17.8% and 19.5%, respectively.
Today’s Census Bureau data on income, poverty, and health insurance in 2022 confirmed many of the predictions made in our preview last week. epi.org/blog/2022-cens…
Median household income fell 2.3% as the inflationary shock of 2022 overwhelmed the benefits of a strong labor market (more hours worked and relatively fast nominal wage growth).
Labor market story is strong overall for May with some notable survey divergence:
Payroll data solid
- payroll employment increased a healthy 339k
- nominal wage growth continues to decelerate
Household data mixed
- rise in unemployment (+.9pp Black unemp)
- drop in employment
The job report for May shows notable employment gains in education and health services, professional and business services, government, and leisure and hospitality in May.
Gains in both leisure and hospitality and government employment are particularly welcome news as they remain the sectors with the largest job shortfalls since before the pandemic. Those deficits are steadily shrinking month after month.
The labor market continues strong in February 2023, payroll jobs up 311,000. Prime-age EPOPs back to pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment rate up along with labor force participation.
After increasing 504,000 in January, payroll employment increased by 311,000 in February. The most jobs added were in the leisure and hospitality sector, up 105,000, while jobs were lost in the information sector, down 25,000.
The gains in leisure and hospitality continue to chip away at the leisure and hospitality shortfall since millions of jobs were lost in the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality is now down 410,000 jobs since February 2020.