Elise Gould Profile picture
Economist, bike commuter, ultimate frisbee player. Studying wages, poverty, jobs, health care, and economic mobility. Striving to be part of the solution.
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May 6 9 tweets 5 min read
Today's #JobsReport shows a continuing healthy recovery from the pandemic recession as payroll employment came in at 428,00 jobs added. The unemployment rate held steady though the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio ticked down.
bls.gov/news.release/p… While the share of the population with a job ticked down slightly in April, it has been trending strongly in the right direction for months. I'm optimistic this will simply be a blip on the way to a full recovery in EPOPs by the end of 2022.
May 5 10 tweets 4 min read
On Jobs Day tomorrow, I'll be watching employment growth, rising labor force participation, and wage growth. Wage growth has stopped rising and might actually be showing signs of slowing in the last two quarters.
epi.org/blog/what-to-w… The large compositional effects of the pandemic on wage growth are now largely behind us. Wage growth continues to be slower than inflation, and there’s no real sign of that changing anytime soon. So far, wage growth continues to dampen price growth rather than feed it.
Mar 9 5 tweets 3 min read
The phrase "little changed" appears 12 times in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January 2022 (bls.gov/news.release/p…).

Job openings, hires, and separations were little changed as the quits rate decreased to 2.8% in January. Image The hires rate remains higher than the quits rate in every major industry. This indicates that when workers quit, they are taking other jobs-likely in the same sector-not dropping out of the labor force altogether. Image
Mar 4 9 tweets 4 min read
Today's jobs report shows a strong 678,000 jobs added in February 2022 with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8% as participation rises. Two years since the pre-pandemic business cycle peak, the labor market continues its strong and speedy recovery.
bls.gov/news.release/p… This month, the household survey and the establishment survey tell a very consistent story of a continuing strong recovery. Both show significant gains in employment and the unemployment rate is falling for the "right" reasons as more workers return to the labor market.
Jan 4 5 tweets 3 min read
Jobs openings ticked down in November, while hires were little changed. Quits continued to be high, hitting a new series high in November, notably increasing in accommodation and food services.
bls.gov/news.release/p… Job openings fell between October and November 2021 by over a half million (-529k) to 10.6 million. The job openings rate fell to 6.6%, the lowest it's been since June (but still historically high). The largest decrease in openings was in accommodation and food services (-261k).
Dec 3, 2021 12 tweets 4 min read
Today's jobs report tells two different stories of the November labor market:
-payroll survey is notably weaker, showing an economy that added only 210,000 jobs in November
-household survey saw 1.1 million job gains, a drop in the unemployment rate and increase in participation Even with the weaker than expected November payroll numbers, job growth so far has already topped 6.1 million for 2021. As long as Nov is a blip, the 2021 average rate of 555,000 per month still means we are on track for a full recovery by the end of 2022.
Nov 5, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read
A welcome return to solid job growth in October as the recent surge in the pandemic recedes. Payroll employment grew 531,000 in October after a disappointing September (now 312,000 with with significant upward revisions).
bls.gov/news.release/p… Private payrolls grew by a 604,000 while govt employment fell by 73,000 in October. The losses in the public sector were primarily in state and local education jobs due in part to seasonal adjustment factors pulling down what were otherwise mild gains. See epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
Sep 14, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read
So, are you telling me that poverty went up AND poverty went down between 2019 and 2020? I’ve been asked this more than once since the Census release this morning. And, the answer is yes. Here’s how this is possible. Let's start with the facts:
- According to the official poverty measure, the official poverty rate in 2020 was 11.4%, up 1.0 percentage point from 2019.
- According to the supplemental poverty measure, the SPM poverty rate in 2020 was 9.1%, down 2.6 percentage point from 2019.
Sep 14, 2021 20 tweets 5 min read
The 2020 Census report highlights the costs of the pandemic and benefits of early policy safety net measures.
Key takeaways:
- median household income down
- full time earnings up
- stimulus payments and UI very effective at reducing poverty for millions
epi.org/blog/the-2020-… The Census report on income, poverty, and health insurance for 2020 provide insights into the effects of the pandemic on earnings and incomes as well as the vital measures put in place to reduce economic insecurity during the steep economic downturn.
Aug 9, 2021 6 tweets 4 min read
The latest #JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a notable uptick in hires and the hires rate, up nearly 700k and 0.4 percentage points between May and June while layoffs continue to trend down. Altogether a promising sign for an economy continuing to recover. The uptick in the quits rate is notable, likely due in part to increased opportunities for workers to find better job matches, potentially with higher wages or safer working conditions in the lingering pandemic (which had not worsening as much during the June reference period).
Jun 4, 2021 12 tweets 5 min read
Today's jobs report is a promising sign that the recovery is on track. The labor market added 559,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate fell to 5.8%.

bls.gov/news.release/p… +559k jobs in May is slightly better than the average growth of the prior 3 months. If this pace continues over the next year, we will likely get down to 4% unemployment by mid-2022 and will be fully recovered before the end of 2022, fully absorbing losses plus population growth.
Jun 2, 2021 20 tweets 10 min read
The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated underlying disparities in the health and economic wellbeing of people across the country. Segregated cities and neighborhoods have devastated many—disproportionately Black and Hispanic communities—others less so.
journals.lww.com/lww-medicalcar… Some families have seen multiple family members and friends become seriously ill or lose their jobs, while others have come away relatively unscathed (and in some cases, prospered).
See @LarryMishel+@joriskywalker's latest on the growth in CEO pay: epi.org/blog/prelimina…
Jun 2, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
New paper alert from @EconomicPolicy using the latest CPS data on telework, co-authored w/ @joriskywalker.

As of April 2021, only 1 in 5 workers (18.3%) worked from home due to COVID. Black and Hispanic workers are less likely to be able to telework.
epi.org/blog/only-one-… At the beginning of the pandemic, @hshierholz and I showed that not everybody can work from home, with the ability to telework differing enormously by race and ethnicity.
Dec 9, 2020 10 tweets 4 min read
Today's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report says "little changed" 16 times. This is not a labor market speeding towards recovery.

bls.gov/news.release/p… The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey continues to show weaker levels of hires than before the recession hit.
Any hope for a quick recovery is off the table unless Congress acts now.

Sep 4, 2020 13 tweets 5 min read
Today, six months into the recession, when the labor market has seen the sharpest employment declines in our lifetimes, we will get the latest jobs data and learn about how workers are faring. It will confirm what we already know: continuing economic pain.
epi.org/blog/what-to-w… Today, the BLS reports an increase of 1.4 million jobs in August. In normal times, this would be an enormous jump, but it represents a noted slowdown in the pace of job growth. At this point, the U.S. economy is still down 11.5 million jobs from where it was in February.
Aug 6, 2020 17 tweets 7 min read
What should we expect in tomorrow's jobs day release?

A stalled recovery.

After historically fast growth in May and June, July's jobs report is sure to disappoint. Because so many jobs were lost in March and April, the economy remains 14.7 million jobs short, and a full recovery even with rapid growth is many months away.
Jun 9, 2020 7 tweets 3 min read
The U.S. economy remains in an enormous jobs deficit—we were down 6.4 million jobs at the end of April (according to the JOLTS data), and down 19.6 million at the middle of May (according to the monthly employment data).
epi.org/blog/the-u-s-e… The JOLTS data showed that 6.4 million jobs were lost from the end of March to the end of April. The monthly jobs report straddle these numbers, showing that 20.7 million jobs were lost from mid-March to mid-April, and 2.5 million jobs were gained from mid-April to mid-May.
Feb 20, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read
State of Working America Wages 2019: A story of slow, uneven, and unequal wage growth over the last 40 years
Thread of key takeaways from the report.
Slow wage growth persists: Consistent positive wage growth has occurred in only 10 of the last 40 years.
Jan 10, 2020 13 tweets 5 min read
2019 ends with solid job growth and tepid wage growth.
1/n #Jobs #JobsReport #BLS #Wages This morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that December payroll employment growth was 145,000 and year-over-year nominal wage growth was 2.9%—the lowest it’s been in 18 months. The unemployment rate came in at 3.5%, holding steady since November.
Sep 10, 2019 14 tweets 17 min read
In this morning's release on income, poverty, and health insurance for 2018, the Census Bureau data reveal that income growth once again slowed significantly in 2018.
Household income growth significantly slowed again in 2018, following a marked deceleration in 2017. While any reduction in poverty or increase in income is a step in the right direction, most families have just barely made up the ground lost over the past decade.
Aug 2, 2019 25 tweets 17 min read
Job growth stays solid but wages disappoint—again
#JobsReport @EconomicPolicy 1/n @EconomicPolicy Today’s jobs report showed that 164,000 jobs were added in July. After a couple of weak months this year, we are now seeing solid job growth for the last two months, even with sizable downward revisions for June (and continued losses in retail). 2/n