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Elise Gould Profile picture
Elise Gould
@eliselgould
Economist, bike commuter, ultimate frisbee player. Studying wages, poverty, jobs, health care, and economic mobility. Striving to be part of the solution.
Jul 5 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, with notable downward revisions in the prior two months. Employment growth is expected to slow as the labor market approaches full employment. The Federal Reserve should get a clear message that we are not in a hot labor market. Image The slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.1% in June—ending a 30-month streak of at or below 4.0% unemployment—was largely due to an increase in labor force participation, as more workers sought jobs. Employment increased as the employment-to-population rate held steady. Image
Sep 12, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Poverty increased sharply in 2022 due to safety net cutbacks and inflation. Official poverty measurement misses the valuable tax credits and other assistance provided in the wake of the pandemic. Likewise it also misses the huge uptick in poverty when they were allowed to expire. Image Comprehensive measures of poverty—specifically those based on the Supplemental Poverty Measures—showed very sharp increases. The unfortunate headline from today's report is that child poverty more than doubled between 2021 and 2022, rising from 5.2% to 12.4%. Image
Sep 12, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
New data out from the Census Bureau:


Poverty increased sharply in 2022 due to safety net cutbacks and inflation shock.

What we also know from other data is that a strong labor market signals a better 2023.

For more: census.gov/newsroom/press…
epi.org/press/poverty-… Today’s Census Bureau data on income, poverty, and health insurance in 2022 confirmed many of the predictions made in our preview last week.
epi.org/blog/2022-cens…
Jun 2, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Labor market story is strong overall for May with some notable survey divergence:

Payroll data solid
- payroll employment increased a healthy 339k
- nominal wage growth continues to decelerate

Household data mixed
- rise in unemployment (+.9pp Black unemp)
- drop in employment The job report for May shows notable employment gains in education and health services, professional and business services, government, and leisure and hospitality in May. Image
May 31, 2023 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Job openings edged up in April 2023, but remain close to their level two years ago (in April 2021) and significantly lower than in the height of labor market churn in the pandemic recovery. Layoffs and discharges decreased in April while hires held steady and quits softened. Image Job openings have generally been decreasing over the last year, slowly but steadily moving closer to their pre-pandemic levels, though clearly not there yet. Much of the elevated rates we've seen may have been because of the increased labor market churn and not net new demand. Image
Mar 10, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
The labor market continues strong in February 2023, payroll jobs up 311,000. Prime-age EPOPs back to pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment rate up along with labor force participation. After increasing 504,000 in January, payroll employment increased by 311,000 in February. The most jobs added were in the leisure and hospitality sector, up 105,000, while jobs were lost in the information sector, down 25,000.
Oct 6, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
Jobs day tomorrow!!!
What am I hoping to see?
Some signs of life in stalled public sector employment!
epi.org/blog/what-to-w… Over the last few months, we’ve seen signs of labor market cooling (albeit from a very strong base).

Some examples:
- the historic decline in job openings in August
Oct 4, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Sharp drop in job openings according to the latest #JOLTS data from the #BLS.

Job openings fell 10% between July and August 2022, from 11.2 million to 10.1 million.

The largest fall in job openings were in health care and social assistance, other services, and retail trade. Image Other topline indicators in the #JOLTS report saw little to no change in August. The hires rate was unchanged as separations ticked up slightly, due in part to a mild increase in the layoffs and discharges rate while the quits rate held steady. Image
Aug 2, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
June 2022 #JOLTS data is out. Job openings fell sharply, now four months of declines, and yet, job openings are still higher than a year ago and significantly higher than pre-pandemic. Hires and separation rates both ticked down slightly while quits and layoffs were unchanged. Slight correction. Job openings are down each month since March's series high. That's three months in a row of declines. Please pardon the error in counting months when it's now August and the data are for June.
May 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Today's #JobsReport shows a continuing healthy recovery from the pandemic recession as payroll employment came in at 428,00 jobs added. The unemployment rate held steady though the participation rate and employment-to-population ratio ticked down.
bls.gov/news.release/p… While the share of the population with a job ticked down slightly in April, it has been trending strongly in the right direction for months. I'm optimistic this will simply be a blip on the way to a full recovery in EPOPs by the end of 2022.
May 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
On Jobs Day tomorrow, I'll be watching employment growth, rising labor force participation, and wage growth. Wage growth has stopped rising and might actually be showing signs of slowing in the last two quarters.
epi.org/blog/what-to-w… The large compositional effects of the pandemic on wage growth are now largely behind us. Wage growth continues to be slower than inflation, and there’s no real sign of that changing anytime soon. So far, wage growth continues to dampen price growth rather than feed it.
Mar 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The phrase "little changed" appears 12 times in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January 2022 (bls.gov/news.release/p…).

Job openings, hires, and separations were little changed as the quits rate decreased to 2.8% in January. Image The hires rate remains higher than the quits rate in every major industry. This indicates that when workers quit, they are taking other jobs-likely in the same sector-not dropping out of the labor force altogether. Image
Mar 4, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Today's jobs report shows a strong 678,000 jobs added in February 2022 with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8% as participation rises. Two years since the pre-pandemic business cycle peak, the labor market continues its strong and speedy recovery.
bls.gov/news.release/p… This month, the household survey and the establishment survey tell a very consistent story of a continuing strong recovery. Both show significant gains in employment and the unemployment rate is falling for the "right" reasons as more workers return to the labor market.
Jan 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Jobs openings ticked down in November, while hires were little changed. Quits continued to be high, hitting a new series high in November, notably increasing in accommodation and food services.
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/p… Job openings fell between October and November 2021 by over a half million (-529k) to 10.6 million. The job openings rate fell to 6.6%, the lowest it's been since June (but still historically high). The largest decrease in openings was in accommodation and food services (-261k).
Dec 3, 2021 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
Today's jobs report tells two different stories of the November labor market:
-payroll survey is notably weaker, showing an economy that added only 210,000 jobs in November
-household survey saw 1.1 million job gains, a drop in the unemployment rate and increase in participation Even with the weaker than expected November payroll numbers, job growth so far has already topped 6.1 million for 2021. As long as Nov is a blip, the 2021 average rate of 555,000 per month still means we are on track for a full recovery by the end of 2022.
epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
Nov 5, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
A welcome return to solid job growth in October as the recent surge in the pandemic recedes. Payroll employment grew 531,000 in October after a disappointing September (now 312,000 with with significant upward revisions).
bls.gov/news.release/p… Private payrolls grew by a 604,000 while govt employment fell by 73,000 in October. The losses in the public sector were primarily in state and local education jobs due in part to seasonal adjustment factors pulling down what were otherwise mild gains. See epi.org/blog/what-to-w…
Sep 14, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
So, are you telling me that poverty went up AND poverty went down between 2019 and 2020? I’ve been asked this more than once since the Census release this morning. And, the answer is yes. Here’s how this is possible. Let's start with the facts:
- According to the official poverty measure, the official poverty rate in 2020 was 11.4%, up 1.0 percentage point from 2019.
- According to the supplemental poverty measure, the SPM poverty rate in 2020 was 9.1%, down 2.6 percentage point from 2019.
Sep 14, 2021 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
The 2020 Census report highlights the costs of the pandemic and benefits of early policy safety net measures.
Key takeaways:
- median household income down
- full time earnings up
- stimulus payments and UI very effective at reducing poverty for millions
epi.org/blog/the-2020-… The Census report on income, poverty, and health insurance for 2020 provide insights into the effects of the pandemic on earnings and incomes as well as the vital measures put in place to reduce economic insecurity during the steep economic downturn.
census.gov/content/dam/Ce…
Sep 3, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Employment growth was 235,000 in August, slower than in June or July, and likely muted as the spreading Delta variant increased COVID-19 caseloads by five fold in August.
epi.org/blog/what-to-w… The slowdown in payroll employment growth was notable in leisure and hospitality. After growing about 400,000 a month in the prior two months, leisure and hospitality experience zero growth in August, likely related to the reinstatement of Delta-related safety closures.
Aug 9, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
The latest #JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a notable uptick in hires and the hires rate, up nearly 700k and 0.4 percentage points between May and June while layoffs continue to trend down. Altogether a promising sign for an economy continuing to recover. The uptick in the quits rate is notable, likely due in part to increased opportunities for workers to find better job matches, potentially with higher wages or safer working conditions in the lingering pandemic (which had not worsening as much during the June reference period).
Jun 4, 2021 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Today's jobs report is a promising sign that the recovery is on track. The labor market added 559,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate fell to 5.8%.

1/n
 bls.gov/news.release/p… +559k jobs in May is slightly better than the average growth of the prior 3 months. If this pace continues over the next year, we will likely get down to 4% unemployment by mid-2022 and will be fully recovered before the end of 2022, fully absorbing losses plus population growth.