Thread by @MassDara

The Russian military's problems go beyond casualties and equipment losses. It faces two looming crises in retention and veteran PTSD and other disorders, when its soldiers are allowed to leave Ukraine. I explore this topic in my piece for @TheEconomist, linked in tweet below. /1

In my newest piece for @TheEconomist I explore the Russian military’s looming twin crises of retention and veteran mental health problems. 2/ economist.com/by-invitation/…

Russia’s wartime personnel policies mask the war’s impact on retention. Since September, *all* Russian forces (except PMCs, perhaps Rosgvardia) in Ukraine are serving in a compulsory status once mobilization began, according to decree. /3

..Officers, professional enlisted, and mobilized have had their contracts extended indefinitely until presidential decree ends mobilization. /4 politico.eu/article/text-v…

Currently, the only ways out of military service (apart from being killed in combat) are reaching mandatory retirement age, receiving a medical discharge, or imprisonment. Or refusals and desertions, which are also on the rise. /5 en.zona.media/article/2023/0…

Soldiers are not rotated out regularly and do not always receive proper rest. They face prolonged exposure to combat stress and intensifying feelings of helplessness and anger at their situation. Anecdotes from the front suggest some want to resign when restrictions are lifted./6

Not all soldiers will want to leave the military when they are able, of course. Some may want to remain in service. Some may need to stay due to the money or housing benefits for themselves and their dependents. /7

Then there is the matter of PTSD. Just as there was “Afghan syndrome” and “Chechen Syndrome” to describe veterans with severe PTSD who struggled to adapt to civilian life, it is a matter of time before “Ukraine syndrome” emerges in Russia. Most soldiers are not home yet. /8

Even now, Russia’s medical system is straining to care for those with physical and mental wounds. Russia doesn't have enough veteran psychiatric care facilities. Some are discharged without care for severe PTSD or sent to other facilities with inadequate staffing or care. /9

Like this facility, not designed to receive combat trauma, with little ability to care for physical or mental combat wounds. Some mothers come to care for their sons. Other soldiers buy alcohol off site and drink alone to sleep or numb themselves. /10 meduza.io/en/feature/202…

The 2020s are different from the 1990s, so veteran care may not be as shabby as before. The Russian government can spend more on veterans, Russian society is more stable than in the 1990s, and there is institutional knowledge about PTSD (a term they now use in Russia). /11

Some Russian medical professionals estimate 20-25% of returning veterans will have PTSD, and 100,000 will need professional help. While soldiers are deployed the Kremlin set up a “Defenders of the Fatherland Fund” to create regional centers for veteran care. It's very new /12

But there are problems: the scale of the problem is different (97% of Ground Forces/Airborne units) are in Ukraine which makes it different from Afghanistan and Chechnya. Secondly, the environment in Russia criminalizes anything seen as “discrediting” the military. /13

When veterans of Afghanistan and Chechnya returned home, those with severe and untreated PTSD struggled with employment, family life, were more prone to criminal activity, and had health issues. The Russian population avoided them, making their isolation worse. /13

I lived in Russia during the second campaign in Chechnya. I saw a soldier of that war standing on the street once. He was a few years older than me, but I'll never forgot how old his eyes looked. No Russians looked at him.... /14 washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…

... yet, not long before that, I had seen an entire bus leap up at one time to help a WWII veteran stand. What I understood was that pride was only for some wars and some veterans, and shame was for others. /15

Currently, Russia is grafting the iconography of WWII onto soldiers of this war, calling them ‘liberators’ , curating an image of these personnel as defenders. In some ways, this might differentiate veterans experiences when they return home from ‘Afghantsy’ or Chechnya vets/16

I want to note that, Ukraine is also facing severe challenges with PTSD, not only in its armed forces but their civilian population too. They were invaded, and they urgently need support. /17 nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the way they mistreat their own personnel, will likely cause lasting problems with military retention and a ticking time bomb of veteran mental health disorders. For now these issues loom on the horizon (no one can resign), but the fuse is lit. /end

Many thanks to @TheEconomist for asking me to write.