Thread by @TrentTelenko

The logical conclusion of this unfolding corruption scandal in Russian nuclear early warning procurement that it's least tested nuclear delivery systems are as highly suspect.

Even when you aren't corrupt, nuclear weapons
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https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1663967994781769730

...are extremely finicky beasts that are more likely to fail than work unless the procurement & maintenance for them are 1st rate.

Case in point is the US Navy Polaris missile warhead:

"Three quarters of the U.S. Polaris A1 model submarine-launched

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washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…

...nuclear warheads probably would not have worked in the mid-1960s because of a mechanical defect, Department of Energy officials disclosed yesterday.

In November 1966, scientists who discovered the extent of the problem described it as "truly catastrophic," officials said.

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...Publicly, however, there was nothing but praise at the time for the Polaris system."

Given this American example documented in the 1978 era Washington Post...

...Do you seriously think the Russians would be different if there are corruption based flaws in their nukes?🤡

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The Cold War US Military Industrial Complex had a "Come to Jesus moment" on this and other major systems engineering failures in its nuclear delivery systems and spat forth MIL-STD-499A MILITARY STANDARD: SYSTEM ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT (USAF), dated 1 May 1974 to fix this.

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Back in 2019 I wrote about the political/institutional history of MIL-STD-499A in relation to Boeing's 737-Max engineering debacle on the Chicagoboyz weblog.

See:
The 737 MAX and the Death of MIL-STD-499A SYSTEM ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
chicagoboyz.net/archives/59466…

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MIL-STD-499A was being rewritten early in my DoD career, post Cold War, in light of the failed US Navy A-12 Avenger 2 stealth carrier bomber procurement.

While it was a good idea to cancel the A-12. It was a really bad idea for Pres. Clinton to cancel MIL-STD-499A.
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Systems Engineering to prevent issues like the ones on the Polaris A1 SLBM nuclear warhead isn't easy, but it is absolutely necessary for reasons in the clip from my blog piece below.

Most of the failed 21st century military procurements like the Ford Carrier
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...electromagnetic launch system, the LCS transmission and dissimilar metal corrosion can be laid at the feet of the cancellation of MIL-STD-499A.

That and the simultaneous adoption of "Two level maintenance."

Where minimally trained unit maintainers replace
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...plug & play modules and all other work is done with by the contractor who is supposed to maintain the overall system at a contracted rate of availability.

The reality is Congress never funds maintenance to that theoretically multi-year contract.

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So the contractor cannot afford enough modules to plug & play. He has to pretend his "Just-in-time" model will cover the gap...& it never does

Even if Congress did fund the multi-year contract, the actual serviceability rates never meet the mutually agreed goal because the
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...system was immature when goal was negotiated.

Additionally, the DoD didn't buy the full technical data package for it's engineers to examine to "save money."😭

Almost every US high level system complexity military procurement after 1995

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...has been late, over budget and most importantly, they have failed to be financially supportable in operational service.

The DoD's over reliance on contractors to do 2nd & 3rd level maintenance on Cold War era weapons because they don't

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...want to train Cold War era skills sets into soldiers has bit it square in the assets.

When the US Army's Kuwait based prepositioned stocks were left in charge of the 401st Army Field Support Battalion. They didn't have the skills to know they were
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defensenews.com/land/2023/05/3…

...being scammed.

They "trusted the contractor."🤯

Humvee tires on Humvees sent from Kuwait to Poland for Ukraine fell part from dry rot. And there were no spare tires at all.

The 401st FSB apparently trusted/pencil whipped maintenance on M777 howitzers for 19 months.
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According to Defense News:

"Army Materiel Command senior representative from Kuwait issued a request for assistance, bringing in a U.S. Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command mobile repair team from Anniston Army Depot, Alabama."
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And the found:

"When the team arrived at Camp Arifjan in March 2022, the contractor provided a howitzer that it said was fully mission capable. But the weapon system was not maintained according to the standard technical manual, per the mobile repair team, and “
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...‘would have killed somebody [the operator],’ in its current condition,” the report stated."

Somethings simply should not be privatized.

Essential military maintenance is one of those things.

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US nukes & their delivery systems are late Cold War era & were built under MIL-STD-499A.

The Russian nuclear systems...?

...not so much.

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However, the USA has nuclear worries of its own:

"One of the reasons nuclear weapons profitability is extremely high is that the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) of the Department of Energy,

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thenation.com/article/societ…

...responsible for the development and operations of the DOE’s nuclear weapons facilities, does not monitor subcontractors, which makes it difficult to monitor prime contractors as well."

US nukes maintained like Ukraine bound M777's, anyone?🤦‍♂️

21/21 End.