Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 1, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
American military veterans have a suicide problem.

Some have theorized the reason is deployment-related trauma.

Leveraging the random assignment of new soldiers to units with different deployment cycles, Bruhn et al. found that was wrong.

Deployment did not increase suicides. Image
Looking only at violent deployments (ones with peer casualties), there aren't noncombat mortality effects either.

What explains veteran suicide rates? Image
The reason seems to be that the proposition is wrong: veterans do not have increased suicide risk.

This may seem surprising, but it's not. Their suicide rates are elevated over the general population because most of them are young White men. That group has a suicide issue. Image
There are good and bad parts to this observation.

On the one hand, it means that there is not selection of suicidal people into the military.

On the other, demographic selection makes this problem into one that agencies like the VA will probably not be able to fix on their own
because it's not a soldier problem, it's a young White male problem.

I don't know how this can be fixed, but presumably tackling opiate use would help.

Soliman (2022) found that DEA crackdowns on overprescribing pharmacies resulted in fewer local suicide deaths. Image
Soliman also found that sanctioning specific doctors affected opioid-related mortality more generally without impacting suicide rates. Effects were generally larger for males than females and they were larger for people aged 30-49 than those aged 15-29 or 85+. No race data.
Kennedy-Hendricks et al. found that Florida's pill mill crackdown reduced opioid overdose mortality considerably.

Their supplement contained details on the characteristics of the people who died from opioid overdoses, but I wasn't able to access it.

Regardless, this problem can Image

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Nov 20
Why?

I doubt the answer is weight loss. Consider 2 other drugs for diabetes: DPP-4 and SGLT-2 inhibitors

GLP-1RAs are associated with less Alzheimer's vs. DPP-4is:

But not SGLT-2is:

Neither generates much weight loss, but SGLT-2is match GLP-1RAs on glycemic benefitsImage
Image
So, at least in this propensity score- or age-matched data, there's no reason to chalk the benefit up to the weight loss effects.

This is a hint though, not definitive. Another hint is that benefits were observed in short trials, meaning likely before significant weight loss.
We can be doubly certain about that last hint because diabetics tend to lose less weight than non-diabetics, and all of the observed benefit has so far been observed in diabetic cohorts, not non-diabetic ones (though those directionally show benefits).

Anyway, trials needed!
Read 4 tweets
Nov 18
Diets that restrict carbohydrate consumption lead to improved blood sugar and insulin levels, as well as reduced insulin resistance.

Additionally, they're good or neutral for the liver and kidneys, and they don't affect the metabolic rate. Image
Carbohydrate isn't the only thing that affects glycemic parameters.

So does fat!

So, for example, if you replace 5% of dietary calories from saturated fat with PUFA, that somewhat improves fasting glucose levels (shown), and directionally improves fasting insulin: Image
Dietary composition may not be useful for improving the rate of weight loss ceteris paribus, but it can definitely make it easier given what else it changes.

Those non-metabolism details may be why so many people find low-carb diets so easy!

Read 4 tweets
Nov 18
Property taxes should, in theory, make it so buying a home is more affordable and young people will have increased access to home ownership.

Let's look through the literature to see what really happens🧵

Firstly, higher property taxes get older people to move. Image
Higher property taxes act as leverage since they're capitalized into house prices.

This reduces the number of people who own multiple homes, increases general ownership, and increases young ownership even more. Image
Property tax exemptions are popular because the old feel like they shouldn't have to pay anything to live in their homes.

Exemptions shift homeownership to older ages and make America less mobile because people live in their homes for longer. Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 18
There's a popular belief that family wealth is gone in three generations.

The first earns it, the second stewards it, and the third spends it away: from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations!

But how true is this belief?

Gregory Clark has new evidence🧵 Image
The first thing to note is that family wealth is correlated across many generations. For example, in medieval England, this is how wealth at death correlates across six generations.

It correlates substantially enough to persist for twelve generations at observed rates of decay: Image
But why?

The dominant theory among laypeople is social: that the wealth is directly transmitted.

This is testable, and the Malthusian era provides us with lots of data for testing. Image
Read 19 tweets
Nov 18
The Catholic Church helped to modernize the West due to its ban on cousin marriage and its disdain for adoption, but also by way of its opposition to polygyny.

The origin of this disdain arguably lies with Church Fathers like Justin Martyr, Irenaeus, and Tertullian🧵 Image
Justin Martyr, in his Dialogue with Trypho argues with a Jew that Christians are the ones living in continuity with God's true intentions.

Justin sees Genesis 2 ("the two shall become one flesh") as normative.

In his apologetic world, Christians are supposed to transcend lust.Image
Irenaeus, in Against Heresies, is attacking Gnostics (Basilides, Carpocrates), whose sexual practices he finds scandalous.

To him, "temperance dwells, self-restraint is practiced, monogamy is observed"—polygyny is a doctrinal and moral deviation from creation affirmation.Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 17
The effects of charter schools on student test scores are meta-analytically estimated to be small.

In this study, the largest estimated effect was estimated to be equivalent to ~1.35 IQ points, for mathematics scores, which consistently showed larger effects than reading scores. Image
Similarly, the estimated effect of parents' preferred schools and of elite public secondary schools on test scores is around zero. Image
More interestingly, it seems charter school openings lead to competition that marginally boosts non-charter student performance and reduces absenteeism by very small degrees:
Read 12 tweets

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