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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Jun 1, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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American military veterans have a suicide problem.

Some have theorized the reason is deployment-related trauma.

Leveraging the random assignment of new soldiers to units with different deployment cycles, Bruhn et al. found that was wrong.

Deployment did not increase suicides. Image
Looking only at violent deployments (ones with peer casualties), there aren't noncombat mortality effects either.

What explains veteran suicide rates? Image
The reason seems to be that the proposition is wrong: veterans do not have increased suicide risk.

This may seem surprising, but it's not. Their suicide rates are elevated over the general population because most of them are young White men. That group has a suicide issue. Image
There are good and bad parts to this observation.

On the one hand, it means that there is not selection of suicidal people into the military.

On the other, demographic selection makes this problem into one that agencies like the VA will probably not be able to fix on their own
because it's not a soldier problem, it's a young White male problem.

I don't know how this can be fixed, but presumably tackling opiate use would help.

Soliman (2022) found that DEA crackdowns on overprescribing pharmacies resulted in fewer local suicide deaths. Image
Soliman also found that sanctioning specific doctors affected opioid-related mortality more generally without impacting suicide rates. Effects were generally larger for males than females and they were larger for people aged 30-49 than those aged 15-29 or 85+. No race data.
Kennedy-Hendricks et al. found that Florida's pill mill crackdown reduced opioid overdose mortality considerably.

Their supplement contained details on the characteristics of the people who died from opioid overdoses, but I wasn't able to access it.

Regardless, this problem can Image
probably be helped to some degree.

Sources:

nber.org/papers/w30622

fivethirtyeight.com/features/suici…

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.21…

More:

bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/resear…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
May 9
Conservatives love to attack the Great Society as if it's responsible for modern high divorce and low marriage rates as well as high Black crime rates.

But this is a narrative-based belief, not a statistically-justified one. High Black crime rates precede the Great Society.Image
The Great Society gets a lot of senseless blame.

Some people say it caused people to work a lot less. Not clearly supported:

Some people claim it failed to affect poverty rates.

Negatively supported:
Read 11 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 7
Roughly one-third of all of Japan's urban building was done through a process of replotting land parcels and reconstructing homes to increase local density while making way for new infrastructure🧵

Conceptually, it's like this: Image
In that diagram, you see an area of low-density homes that has undergone land rights conversion, where, when two-thirds of the area’s existing homeowners agree, everyone’s right to their land is converted to the rights to an equivalent part of a new building. Image
This works well to generate substantial, dense amounts of housing, and it's, crucially, democratic.

All the decision-making power was held by those who were directly affected, and not outsiders to the situation.

If 2/3 wanted to upzone, they could, and they did!Image
Read 16 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 6
Chinese cities occasionally sell land to developers before buying out all the existing residents.

But sometimes existing residents refuse to be bought out, so developers are forced to build around them.

These are "nail houses"🧵
The most famous nail house is undoubtedly Wu Ping's home in Chongqing.

Wu Ping came to national acclaim when she and her husband refused to give up their property to make way for a luxury apartment complex.

They wanted more compensation, and they fought for it for three years. Image
Wu Ping and her husband refused to leave their property during the debate over the Wuquan Fa, Property Rights Law.

The debate was largely centered around whether and how China would protect property rights given their socialist ideals.Image
Read 18 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 6
I've seen a lot of people recently claim that the prevalence of vitiligo is 0.5-2%.

This is just not true. In the U.S. today, it's closer to a sixth of a percent, with some notable age- and race-related differences.

But where did the 0.5-2% claim come from?🧵 Image
The claim of a 0.5-2% prevalence emerged on here because Google's Gemini cited a 2020 review in the journal Dermatology which proclaimed as much in the abstract.

Simple enough, right? They must have a source that supports this estimate in the review somewhere.Image
They cite four studies for the 0.5-2% claim, so let's look into those studies. Image
Read 27 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 2
There's a myth that the Islamic world has figured out fertility, but it has not.

They show the same declining fertility rates that other places have. Barring Iraq, the Middle East has lower fertility rates than Israel now. Image
Exceptions: Yemen and maybe Palestine, both of which have terrible data, so their comparative situation is unclear.

But, two things on that:

Firstly, Jewish fertility is ahead of Arab fertility in Israel. Image
Secondly, Israeli fertility might be just ahead or slightly behind Palestinian fertility, depending on the source.

Israeli growth is definitely ahead of Palestinian growth due to immigration, Palestinian emigration, and Palestinian mortality.Image
Read 6 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 2
Relationships between class and fertility and IQ and fertility used to routinely be negative in the not-so-distant past.

But across the developed world, they're increasingly positive, albeit only slightly. In this Swedish birth cohort (1951-67), the transition came early: Image
In this example, there's also some interesting confounding: between families, IQ isn't monotonically associated with fertility, but within families, it is.

Something seems to suppress the IQ-fertility relationship between families!

See also:
Sweden's positive IQ-fertility gradient (which, above, is just for males, since it's draftee data), has been around for quite a while (but has varied, too), whereas in countries like France, Japan, and the U.S., the gradient shift towards being slightly positive is more recent. Image
Read 6 tweets

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