Catherine Rampell Profile picture
Jun 2 3 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Another gangbusters payrolls report. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May; forecast had been for ~190,000.
In 13 of the past 14 months, the jobs number has exceeded forecasts.
The change for April was also revised up by 41,000, from +253,000 to +294,000.
Construction hiring accelerated slightly from previous few months. This is despite rising interest rates, which should be discouraging building.
Wonder how much of this might be related to some of the CHIPS/infrastructure/IRA industrial policy? Seems too early

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More from @crampell

Jun 2
Remember concerns about how the 2020 "she-cession" might set working women back a generation?

The labor force participation rate for prime-working-age women (25-54) just hit an all-time high. Image
Share of women in this age group who have jobs is also at an all-time high (tied with level from April) Image
Same is not true of prime-working-age men: Neither their labor-force participation rate nor their e-pop is even back to the pre-pandemic cyclical peak, and way down from record highs. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Jun 1
“No one is teaching your kids to be gay,” a Florida teacher told the room. “Sometimes, they just are gay. I have math to teach. I literally don’t have time to teach your kids to be gay.” washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
in all fairness, there are schools in FL that think math class should reflect conservative Christian values. I know because my dad (who is Jewish) applied to teach accounting at a small local Christian college and was asked how he planned to ensure it was "Christian accounting"
I forget if I've shared this story publicly before. But the guy interviewing my father explained that he taught "Christian statistics"
Read 4 tweets
Jun 1
For first time on record, YoY productivity change has remained negative for five consecutive quarters; this series began in 1948.
bls.gov/news.release/p… Image
current business cycle is showing historically low productivity growth. Image
among other things, this trend does not bode well for our longer-term fiscal & economic outlooks, which lawmakers profess to care so much about right now amid the debt-limit fight.
Read 8 tweets
May 31
Wonder how many other House D progressives will oppose. Seems like not enough to threaten passage, given House D leadership has come out in favor of the bill.
May even be helpful if a few progressive Ds make a show of how unhappy they are with the bill, so that Rs still vote for it.
Read 5 tweets
May 31
A running tally of Senate R's who say they'll vote against the Biden-McCarthy debt limit deal. Recall that the bill needs 60 Senate votes to clear a procedural hurdle, so both D+R votes needed. 🧵

@ me if I missed anyone
Read 16 tweets
May 30
CBO estimate for Biden-McCarthy debt limit bill is out.
cbo.gov/system/files/2… Image
Note that CBO scores the rescission of IRS funding specified in the bill text** as expanding deficits. $1.4b clawed back, leading to a drop in revenues of $2.3,B for a net deficit expansion of $900m.

**which understates the size of the full rescission agreed to! Image
The bill text specifies "only" $1.4B being taken away from IRS.
But, separately, the White House has agreed to "repurpose" another $20B, officially accounted for across FY 2024 & FY2025, so the $ can be used for other priorities.
Read 8 tweets

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