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Jun 2, 2023 11 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ Citizens of the puppet 'Donetsk People's Republic' (DNR) are complaining en masse that they are not being paid their promised compensation for deaths and injuries caused to local residents by the war. The DNR itself admits that it owes more than 38 billion rubles ($467m). ⬇️ Image
2/ Relatives and soldiers of the DNR's armed forces – which have been decimated due to being used as so-called 'meat waves' against Ukrainian positions – have been posting numerous videos complaining about the lack of compensation payments and appealing to Putin for help.
3/ In one video, a wife says: "Starting from September 2022, funding for lump-sum compensation for wounded and killed DNR servicemen for 2022 was terminated. We submitted documents to the commission of the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy of the DNR.
4/ "There are a lot of us. We applied to all authorities. From the presidential administration to the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation.
5/ "All our appeals are forwarded to the government of the DNR, which redirects them to the Ministry of Labour, and the answers come from there that there is no funding. We write to the deputies and there are no results."
6/ According to the wife of one wounded soldier, his unit "collected all the necessary documents promptly, the medical examiner issued a conclusion of a severe injury.
7/ "In November we submitted all the documents for payment, and for seven months there have been no payments, the allowance during treatment is 30,000 rubles ($371). The answer is the same, there is no funding."
8/ People seeking compensation have complained to the DNR state prosecutor's office, which admitted that an audit had "established the fact of lack of funding for this type of payment, which requires an amount of more than 38 billion rubles."
9/ It's very unlikely that the DNR will be able to pay the sums it owes, as its finances are precarious, its economy is a mess and it's kept afloat only by Russian government funding.
10/ The Russian government has shown little concern previously for the welfare of DNR soldiers and their families, so there seems to be little likelihood that the relatives' video appeals will achieve much. /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

May 5
1/ The world is very rapidly running out of refined fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, according to a new Goldman Sachs report, with only 45 days' worth of stockpiles of jet fuel, naphtha, and LPG remaining. Rationing, surcharges, and mass cancellations are forecast. ⬇️ Image
2/ A research note authored by Goldman Sachs strategists Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven has examined the impact of Middle East disruptions on refined product markets, finding that jet fuel and diesel are being hit far harder than crude oil.
3/ The analysts estimate that about 101 days' worth of usable global oil stocks remain in stockpiles. (While more oil than that is stockpiled, it can't all be used, as the JP Morgan report summarised below explains.)
Read 25 tweets
May 5
1/ Russia's (allegedly) most incompetent general says he plans to stand for election in Tatarstan as a candidate for Vladimir Putin's United Russia party. Russian warbloggers are unimpressed at Colonel General Alexander Lapin's continued failure upward. ⬇️ Image
2/ Lapin has repeatedly been dismissed from his positions since the start of the Ukraine war, and has attracted a great deal of criticism – likely justified – for his failures in command. Now retired, this unpopularity has not stopped him from declaring his candidacy:
3/ "At this stage in my life, I have a great desire to serve my multinational people, to defend the interests of my small homeland, to help people, to fight for truth, to fight for justice, to defend the interests of our republic and, as a whole, our great Motherland – Russia."
Read 24 tweets
May 4
1/ Oil prices will rise to at least $140 per barrel by June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by July, and will not return to pre-Iran War levels before 2028 even in a best-case scenario, predicts Goldman Sachs. It warns of price surges and major economic impacts. ⬇️ Image
2/ A new report from Goldman Sachs predicts that 14.5 million barrels per day of production have been lost in April 2026. Global stockpiles are being drained at a record 11-12 mb/d which, as JP Morgan has noted, risks a cliff-edge drop in oil supplies.
3/ The longer the blockade continues, the worse the damage becomes. Goldman predicts that in all but the best-case scenario, there will be permanent reductions ("scarring") in Gulf oil production of between 0.5 mb/d and 2.5 mb/d.
Read 25 tweets
May 3
1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, "price increases become exponential rather than linear." Image
2/ The exponential point is reached at $250 per barrel, which is well within the range of realistic possibilities predicted by many analysts. Linearity breaks down because of:
3/ ♦️ Refinery margin blowouts — refineries pass through higher feedstock costs at elevated rates under stress

♦️ Speculation and panic premiums — markets take fright and price in fear, not just fundamentals
Read 19 tweets
May 2
1/ The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. ⬇️ Image
2/ A month ago, JP Morgan published a report highlighting that the last oil shipments from the Persian Gulf countries would be delivered by 20th April. That date has come and gone, and oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz have not resumed.
3/ Limited amounts of Gulf oil have continued to be pumped via pipelines to ports on the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. However, instead of producing enough oil supply to meet global demand, the world has been relying on emergency stockpiles. Image
Read 26 tweets
May 2
1/ Russia faces being surrounded by Europe's mightiest power - the United Kingdom. In a commentary that highlights Russian nationalists' peculiar obsession with Britain, a warblogger predicts doom unless a military alliance is formed with China, North Korea, and Iran. ⬇️ Image
2/ 'Tungsten' writes:

""Azerbaijan, right next door, is beginning joint production with Ukraine of anti-drone systems, FPV drones, and naval unmanned aerial vehicles.

Britain's southern thrust is on our North Caucasus through Armenia."
3/ "Norway, Denmark, and Sweden, together with Ukraine, will begin producing air defence systems and equipment for combat operations in the Arctic and North Atlantic, along the border with Russia, starting in June of this year.
Read 6 tweets

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