Drew Thompson 唐安竹 Profile picture
Jun 3 37 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
More and more, the countries of the Indo-Pacific have come together around a compelling vision of the future.

It’s a vision of a free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific within a world of rules and rights.
It’s a vision of a region in which all countries are free to thrive on their own terms—without coercion, intimidation, or bullying.
 
It’s a vision of a free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific within a world of rules and rights.
And that vision is anchored in some key principles.
 
Respect for sovereignty.
 
Adherence to international law.
 
Transparency and openness.
 
The free flow of commerce and ideas.
And resolving disputes through peaceful dialogue, not coercion or conquest.
Just look at the crisis caused by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
 
The Kremlin’s indefensible war of choice stands as the bloodiest conflict in Europe since the end of World War II.
And Russia’s shocking aggression has brought home to people everywhere how dangerous our world would become if big countries could just invade their peaceful neighbors with impunity.
 
Russia’s invasion shows us all the dangers of disorder and the cost of chaos.
This year, as president of the G-7, Japan has focused on connectivity and on bridging the gap with developing countries. That includes pledging to invest $75 billion in public and private funds for regional infrastructure that can weather the storms of climate change.
Around the region, countries are matching their words with their actions, insisting on resolving differences through dialogue, and calling for even closer cooperation.

And so are we.
The United States is working together with our friends more closely every day.
 
We’re doubling down on our alliances and partnerships.
 
And our National Defense Strategy calls for us to work more closely with our allies and partners at every stage of defense planning.
Our shared goals are clear: to deter aggression and to deepen the rules and norms that promote prosperity and prevent conflict.
 
So we’re stepping up planning, coordination, and training with our friends from the East China Sea to the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean.
At the same time, we’re working closely with our allies to upgrade our force posture in the region. We’re making our presence more distributed, more agile, and more resilient. And that will bring greater stability and security to the region.
We are committed to ensuring that every country can fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows. And every country, large or small, must remain free to conduct lawful maritime activities.
through the historic AUKUS partnership, we’re cooperating with Australia and the U.K. on a range of path-breaking capabilities…. we announced AUKUS will deliver conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, all with the purpose of upholding peace and stability.
The United States is absolutely proud to expand our cooperation with ASEAN. We remain staunch supporters of ASEAN centrality and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific. And we have stepped up our work through the ADMM+, including new programs…
We’re also continuing to expand our marquee maritime initiative with the Quad. The Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness will help partners across the region better monitor the waters near their shores.
We’ll continue to stand by our allies and partners as they uphold their rights. We’ll maintain our vigorous, responsible presence across the Indo-Pacific. And we’ll continue to work to ensure that no one country can assert control over shared waterways.
In the South China Sea, we will continue to work with our allies and partners to uphold freedom of navigation and overflight. And let me again underscore the importance of the 2016 ruling by the Arbitral Tribunal.

It is legally binding, and it is final.
We won’t be deterred by dangerous operational behavior at sea or in international airspace.
The People’s Republic of China continues to conduct an alarming number of risky intercepts of U.S. and allied aircraft flying lawfully in international airspace. And we’ve all just clearly seen another troubling case of aggressive and unprofessional flying by the PRC.
So we will support our allies and partners as they defend themselves against coercion and bullying.
 
We do not seek conflict or confrontation. But we will not flinch in the face of bullying or coercion.
So we will support our allies and partners as they defend themselves against coercion and bullying.
 
We do not seek conflict or confrontation. But we will not flinch in the face of bullying or coercion.
 
Now, all of this is especially important in the Taiwan Strait.
Let me be clear. The United States remains deeply committed to preserving the status quo there, consistent with our longstanding one-China policy, and with fulfilling our well-established obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act.
Our policy is constant and firm. It has held true across U.S. administrations. And we will continue to categorically oppose unilateral changes to the status quo from either side.
Conflict is neither imminent nor inevitable. Deterrence is strong today—and it’s our job to keep it that way.
The whole world has a stake in maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The security of commercial shipping lanes and global supply chains depends on it. And so does freedom of navigation world-wide.
Make no mistake:conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be devastating.
The United States believes that open lines of communication with the People’s Republic of China are essential—especially between our defense and military leaders.
 
For responsible defense leaders, the right time to talk is anytime.
 
The right time to talk is everytime.
#SLD23
And the right time to talk is now.
 
Dialogue is not a reward. It is a necessity.
 
And the more that we talk, the more that we can avoid the misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to crisis or conflict.
You know, I am deeply concerned that the PRC has been unwilling to engage more seriously on better mechanisms for crisis management between our two militaries. But I hope that will change, and soon.
I’ve said it before: Great powers must be beacons of transparency and responsibility. And the United States is deeply committed to doing our part.
 
And we are determined to keep this region open, peaceful, and prosperous.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Indo-Pacific has become an extraordinary example of human progress and peaceful cooperation.
 
I’m proud to be here with you. And the United States is proud to be your partner.
 
Conflict and strife are not inevitable.
It’s not a fierce debate. #SLD23 is a constructive dialogue, and an opportunity to build relationships and strengthen partnerships.
#SLD23

@SecDef responds to @BonnieGlaser asking about Taiwan, affirming that “differences should be resolved through diplomacy.” Image
When asked about the “contradiction” between the Quad, AUKUS and ASEAN Centrality, @SecDef responds, “this will add greater stability in the region.”
President Xi challenged his military to conduct operations [against Taiwan] by 2027, but that is not necessarily intent.

A conflict is neither imminent, nor inevitable.

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More from @TangAnZhu

Jun 4
General Li is speaking at @IISS_org #SLD23 Image
"Mutual respect should prevail over bullying and hegemony. Where there is bullying and hegemony, there is chaos and worse."
“Hegemony denies other countries their strategic autonomy and development.”
Read 24 tweets
Sep 23, 2022
I wake up to DMs, and find a twitter feed full of unverified rumors about Xi Jinping under arrest in a palace coup.

It appears to be a complete falsehood at this point, but the spread of the rumor indicates belief in its plausibility.
The claimed source of the information is an “investigative journalist” named Zhao Lanjian who tweeted that 60% of China’s flights have been cancelled, which is an indication of a coup.

@ELuttwak might agree that flight cancellations are not the opening phase of a coup.
I don’t follow “Zhao Lanjian” on Twitter, and when I looked for his account, I could not find it.

Falungong media is amplifying the rumor which makes it suspect too.

Zhao has written several articles for New Tang Dynasty TV, which is a Falungong outlet.
Read 24 tweets
Aug 21, 2022
@jamescrabtree I certainly have thoughts on this.

I've written about it as well:
inss.ndu.edu/Media/News/Art…
@jamescrabtree A 2018 piece I wrote was probably the first to publicly analyze the "Overall Defense Concept", which was a new approach that prioritized asymmetric capabilities to defend Taiwan in the littoral and on the beaches, rather than a defense-in-depth strategy.
warontherocks.com/2018/10/hope-o…
@jamescrabtree The dilemma for Taiwan is having a conventional force that is effective in grey zone coercion, like what we saw during Speaker Pelosi's visit. Taiwan needs big ships and manned fighter planes to intercept and shadow the PLA's big ships and planes.
Read 17 tweets
Apr 10, 2022
This long YouTube video of the Shanghai lockdown is informative, wild, and fascinating.

Pro-tip: increase the playback speed to 1.5x

#LOCKDOWN #Shanghai 2022
Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang used to be Xi Jinping’s secretary.

I think I just watched the end of his career.

His loyalty and service to Xi may keep him out of jail. He’d be lucky with that outcome.
Shanghai’s governor should probably leave the country now and seek asylum somewhere without an extradition treaty with China.
Read 43 tweets
Oct 18, 2021
This Sunday morning tweet garnered some good discussion (and no trolls!), including several DM requests for more insights and explanation why I think strategic stability is slipping away.

Some additional thoughts in a thread -
We can debate what stability means and whether the security dilemma enhances or undermines deterrence, but I’d rather not. That's too academic/theoretical for Twitter.

I'd rather look at what’s happening, and what isn't happening.
The U.S. plans to spend $1.5 TRILLION to update its nuclear weapons and delivery systems - $15.6 billion spend in FY2021.

New nuclear warheads, B-21 bomber, Columbia-class submarine and Trident II upgrade…
Read 37 tweets
Feb 1, 2021
Hong Kong is facing a potential brain drain crisis.

Successful professionals among others are making their way to Singapore, Taipei, Tokyo and elsewhere in response to the HKSAR’s mismanagement of crises and Beijing’s overreach.

A Hong Kong thread.

ft.com/content/76f88f…
“Beijing’s sweeping national security law and subsequent crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong has spooked some employees of international law firms, asset managers and banks.”
“Government agencies including the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong [and others] have phoned banking and asset management executives who have relocated to rival cities including Singapore and Tokyo, according to three people with direct knowledge of the calls. “
Read 25 tweets

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