Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

When you add this to what Blinken said yesterday about the state of the Russian and Ukrainian armies, its clear that those with pretty good intelligence are growing increasingly bullish on the chances for a major success from the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1664748976782950402

Secretary Blinken's speech was probable the most extraordinary attack on the state of the Russian military by a top figure in the US government so far. He mocks their condition then says the Russians have suffered "more than" 100000 casualties in the last 6 months alone.

I would guess the mockery comes from intelligence they receive on the state of Russian armed forces. Much has been made by analysts about the Russian army learning and improving--I have a sense neither Wallace or Blinken are being told this is the case.

https://twitter.com/ChubbsPubbs/status/1664795223602630656?s=20

All I will add is that what the Ukrainians are doing with this counteroffensive is already of a magnitude greater in terms of planning and organization than anything we have seen so far in this war. The shaping operations and pre-offensive attrition seem really well conceived

They have assembled and equipped the most well trained and prepared assault force we have seen in the war, and they have spent the last six months wearing out Russian forces, particularly in Bakhmut.

They are giving this counteroffensive the best possible chance to succeed.