Drew Thompson 唐安竹 Profile picture
Jun 4 24 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
General Li is speaking at @IISS_org #SLD23 Image
"Mutual respect should prevail over bullying and hegemony. Where there is bullying and hegemony, there is chaos and worse."
“Hegemony denies other countries their strategic autonomy and development.”
“Some countries take a different approach to international rules and norms…. The so-called rules-based international order does not define the rules.”

The rules for safe operations of planes and vessels are quiet clear, however.
globalnews.ca/news/9743650/c…
General Li opposes "block politics" and "NATO-like alliances" in the region.

Region needs, "big pies" [?] of partnerships.
"We need an Asia Pacific with lasting stability, rather than chaos and instability."
“China is ready to work with all partners to create more equitable rules.”
Will accelerate consultations on the COC in the SCS. Continue to work on CUES.
"Taiwan is the core of China's core interests."
Image
Questions about unprofessional operations of PLA planes and vessels, asking Gen Li whether such unsafe maneuvers are in their interest, and whether China will engage in consultations and follow existing rules and agreements.
“We will follow unclos. We have no problem with innocent passage. We need to prevent the use of innocent passage being used for hegemony. Foreign vessels are not hear for innocent passage. They are here for provocation.”
On the US: “China is open to communications between our two countries and militaries. So far, we have had smooth communications about channels at different levels. But we have our principles. But they need to be based on mutual respect...."
"...If we do not have mutual respect, they will not be productive.”
@DrTimHuxley asks about lessons learned from Ukraine. ImageImageImage
@lkyspp alumni Kyi Sin asks General Li about the relationship between the PLA and the Myanmar junta. Image
A couple of General Li’s statements did not make my real-time thread. He speaks faster than my thumbs.
I was surprised he said the offensive idiom, “for our friends we have fine wine, for jackals we have shotguns.”
His concluding remarks will feed meme machines for awhile.
When pressed to respond to unsafe incidents, he asked somewhat rhetorically, “why do these incidents happen in areas close to China, not other countries?”
“Because China does not do these hegemonic actions near other countries.”
“The best way to avoid incidents is to avoid hegemonic behaviors. What is the point of you being there? MIND YOUR OWN BUSINESS. Take care of your own territorial waters and airspace.”
My Chinese friends told me they thought General Li’s remarks and his delivery were “softer” and “more polite” and “measured” than previous defense ministers.

I’m not sure the room agreed.
The questions from the floor and chatter afterwards underscored that the region sees a big disconnect between China’s actions and their words.

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More from @TangAnZhu

Jun 3
More and more, the countries of the Indo-Pacific have come together around a compelling vision of the future.

It’s a vision of a free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific within a world of rules and rights.
It’s a vision of a region in which all countries are free to thrive on their own terms—without coercion, intimidation, or bullying.
 
It’s a vision of a free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific within a world of rules and rights.
Read 37 tweets
Sep 23, 2022
I wake up to DMs, and find a twitter feed full of unverified rumors about Xi Jinping under arrest in a palace coup.

It appears to be a complete falsehood at this point, but the spread of the rumor indicates belief in its plausibility.
The claimed source of the information is an “investigative journalist” named Zhao Lanjian who tweeted that 60% of China’s flights have been cancelled, which is an indication of a coup.

@ELuttwak might agree that flight cancellations are not the opening phase of a coup.
I don’t follow “Zhao Lanjian” on Twitter, and when I looked for his account, I could not find it.

Falungong media is amplifying the rumor which makes it suspect too.

Zhao has written several articles for New Tang Dynasty TV, which is a Falungong outlet.
Read 24 tweets
Aug 21, 2022
@jamescrabtree I certainly have thoughts on this.

I've written about it as well:
inss.ndu.edu/Media/News/Art…
@jamescrabtree A 2018 piece I wrote was probably the first to publicly analyze the "Overall Defense Concept", which was a new approach that prioritized asymmetric capabilities to defend Taiwan in the littoral and on the beaches, rather than a defense-in-depth strategy.
warontherocks.com/2018/10/hope-o…
@jamescrabtree The dilemma for Taiwan is having a conventional force that is effective in grey zone coercion, like what we saw during Speaker Pelosi's visit. Taiwan needs big ships and manned fighter planes to intercept and shadow the PLA's big ships and planes.
Read 17 tweets
Apr 10, 2022
This long YouTube video of the Shanghai lockdown is informative, wild, and fascinating.

Pro-tip: increase the playback speed to 1.5x

#LOCKDOWN #Shanghai 2022
Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang used to be Xi Jinping’s secretary.

I think I just watched the end of his career.

His loyalty and service to Xi may keep him out of jail. He’d be lucky with that outcome.
Shanghai’s governor should probably leave the country now and seek asylum somewhere without an extradition treaty with China.
Read 43 tweets
Oct 18, 2021
This Sunday morning tweet garnered some good discussion (and no trolls!), including several DM requests for more insights and explanation why I think strategic stability is slipping away.

Some additional thoughts in a thread -
We can debate what stability means and whether the security dilemma enhances or undermines deterrence, but I’d rather not. That's too academic/theoretical for Twitter.

I'd rather look at what’s happening, and what isn't happening.
The U.S. plans to spend $1.5 TRILLION to update its nuclear weapons and delivery systems - $15.6 billion spend in FY2021.

New nuclear warheads, B-21 bomber, Columbia-class submarine and Trident II upgrade…
Read 37 tweets
Feb 1, 2021
Hong Kong is facing a potential brain drain crisis.

Successful professionals among others are making their way to Singapore, Taipei, Tokyo and elsewhere in response to the HKSAR’s mismanagement of crises and Beijing’s overreach.

A Hong Kong thread.

ft.com/content/76f88f…
“Beijing’s sweeping national security law and subsequent crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong has spooked some employees of international law firms, asset managers and banks.”
“Government agencies including the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong [and others] have phoned banking and asset management executives who have relocated to rival cities including Singapore and Tokyo, according to three people with direct knowledge of the calls. “
Read 25 tweets

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