Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Jun 4 6 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Mikhail Khodaryonok was one of the few Russian state media voices who warned about the difficulties of invading Ukraine before February 2022

Here's what he has to say now /1
Khodaryonok admits that Russia lacks the resources to defend Belgorod, and highlights how Belgorod officials have attacked the Russian Defence Ministry on this

Khodaryonok calls for additional fortifications in Grayvoron and Shebekino /2
Khodaryonok wants air power and artillery to be taken to defend the Russia-Ukraine border. This is how serious the threat is

He says they need to be either taken from frontline areas like Kherson, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia or from the reserves of the Russian military /3
Khodaryonok warns that Ukraine will carry out Shebekino-style incursions in other regions of Russia to stretch their forces across a 1,500km

These operations will be followed by a serious Ukrainian counter-offensive /4
Khodaryonok's commentary spurred extreme reactions on Russian state TV

Alexander Shpakovsky called for an end to the SVO and the start of the Great Patriotic War where all Russians need to participate

The sense of alarm is real after the Belgorod attack /END
You can watch Khodaryonok's full commentary and the strident reactions to it on Olga Skabeeva's show here

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More from @SamRamani2

Jun 4
China and Russia recently held a high level dialogue on Middle East affairs

It was convened in Chengdu on May 28

Both China and Russia agreed to advanced a shared vision for the Middle East but that might be difficult /1
A new article published by Andrea Ghiselli challenges the idea of a China-Russia axis in the Middle East

Ghiselli argues that China's reservations about Russian "opportunistic" conduct in the Middle East mirror the US's ones in some respects
Researchers at a Peking University conference on Middle East conference came to the same conclusion in August 2022

Some findings: The Ukraine War created bloc polarizations in the MENA region that didn't exist before and Russia's influence in the Middle East was unsustainable
Read 4 tweets
Jun 3
Indonesia has released a controversial peace plan for Ukraine

Some thoughts on this development /1
Indonesia's peace plan appears to be a cross between China and Africa's plans with its own twist

Indonesia mirrors China's push for a ceasefire, the African plan's second referendum idea but also adds a Korea-style demilitarized zone partition /2
The plan is a non-starter, especially for Ukraine, which has already condemned it

It also reflects Indonesia's partnership with Russia: $1 billion arms contracts since 2004, steady increases in trade and Russian tourism /3
Read 5 tweets
May 31
I wrote an analysis on Africa's peace plan for Ukraine

Some key takeaways /1
Despite French diplomat Jean Yves-Ollivier's experience brokering anti-apartheid negotiations and claims of broad international support, the African peace mission is likely to be a non-starter

Africa's baseline is a second referendum in Donbas and freezing the conflict /2
Ukraine will view any talks that hand Crimea to Russia and leave the door open for Donbas's annexation as a non-starter

The US has made it clear that third party mediation efforts won't be supported if Zelensky rejects them /3
Read 7 tweets
May 22
Russian Telegram channels are reacting to the Belgorod attack in a variety of ways

A thread that explains how Russia is responding to events in Belgorod /1
One narrative on Telegram is that the Belgorod attacks are an "information strike" rather than a military-strategic one

Ukraine is trying to disperse Russia's resources and to compensate for losing Bakhmut, while Russia is eliminating the threat /2
This narrative builds directly on comments from Dmitry Peskov, who blasted Ukrainian saboteurs as being behind the attack and emphasized the cogent FSB, National Guard and Russian military response

The Belgorod governor mirrored these claims too /3
Read 10 tweets
May 18
Russia's ultranationalist war hawks capture a lot of media attention

Do they pose a real threat to Vladimir Putin's power?

Find out more in this thread /1
Ultranationalist pressure on the Kremlin is not new

The hardline sentiments that inspired the 1991 coup against Gorbachev never truly disappeared

The LDPR's success in the 1993 Duma elections and the corresponding constitutional crisis posed a threat to Yeltsin's authority /2
The 2008 Georgian War and 2014-15 Donbas/Crimea War made hardliners vocal

Figures like Alexander Dugin and Igor Girkin called for maximalist war aims, such as marching on Tbilisi and Kyiv

These voices were stifled and posed less of a challenge under Putin than in 1993 /3
Read 10 tweets
May 15
Leaked documents reveal that Yevgeny Prigozhin had contacts with Ukrainian military intelligence officials

Some more details and analysis /1
Prigozhin held phone calls and meetings with Ukraine's GUR officers in Africa

He reportedly discussed Russia's ammunition shortages and urged harder Ukrainian strikes against Russian troops /2
Prigozhin also reportedly urged Ukraine to strike Crimea and offered details of Russian troop positions to Ukraine in Bakhmut

The leaks also reveal that Prigozhin was aware of plummeting morale and rising casualties inside the Wagner Group /3
Read 7 tweets

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