Mikhail Khodaryonok was one of the few Russian state media voices who warned about the difficulties of invading Ukraine before February 2022
Here's what he has to say now /1
Khodaryonok admits that Russia lacks the resources to defend Belgorod, and highlights how Belgorod officials have attacked the Russian Defence Ministry on this
Khodaryonok calls for additional fortifications in Grayvoron and Shebekino /2
Khodaryonok wants air power and artillery to be taken to defend the Russia-Ukraine border. This is how serious the threat is
He says they need to be either taken from frontline areas like Kherson, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia or from the reserves of the Russian military /3
Khodaryonok warns that Ukraine will carry out Shebekino-style incursions in other regions of Russia to stretch their forces across a 1,500km
These operations will be followed by a serious Ukrainian counter-offensive /4
Khodaryonok's commentary spurred extreme reactions on Russian state TV
Alexander Shpakovsky called for an end to the SVO and the start of the Great Patriotic War where all Russians need to participate
The sense of alarm is real after the Belgorod attack /END
You can watch Khodaryonok's full commentary and the strident reactions to it on Olga Skabeeva's show here
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China and Russia recently held a high level dialogue on Middle East affairs
It was convened in Chengdu on May 28
Both China and Russia agreed to advanced a shared vision for the Middle East but that might be difficult /1
A new article published by Andrea Ghiselli challenges the idea of a China-Russia axis in the Middle East
Ghiselli argues that China's reservations about Russian "opportunistic" conduct in the Middle East mirror the US's ones in some respects
Researchers at a Peking University conference on Middle East conference came to the same conclusion in August 2022
Some findings: The Ukraine War created bloc polarizations in the MENA region that didn't exist before and Russia's influence in the Middle East was unsustainable
I wrote an analysis on Africa's peace plan for Ukraine
Some key takeaways /1
Despite French diplomat Jean Yves-Ollivier's experience brokering anti-apartheid negotiations and claims of broad international support, the African peace mission is likely to be a non-starter
Africa's baseline is a second referendum in Donbas and freezing the conflict /2
Ukraine will view any talks that hand Crimea to Russia and leave the door open for Donbas's annexation as a non-starter
The US has made it clear that third party mediation efforts won't be supported if Zelensky rejects them /3
Russian Telegram channels are reacting to the Belgorod attack in a variety of ways
A thread that explains how Russia is responding to events in Belgorod /1
One narrative on Telegram is that the Belgorod attacks are an "information strike" rather than a military-strategic one
Ukraine is trying to disperse Russia's resources and to compensate for losing Bakhmut, while Russia is eliminating the threat /2
This narrative builds directly on comments from Dmitry Peskov, who blasted Ukrainian saboteurs as being behind the attack and emphasized the cogent FSB, National Guard and Russian military response
The Belgorod governor mirrored these claims too /3