Alex Joiner Profile picture
Jun 6 4 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The #RBA raised rates to 4.1%, (in a move not expected by market economist median) "to provide greater confidence that inflation will return to target within a reasonable timeframe.". The final paragraph is unchanged noting further tightening "may be required". ImageImage
The RBA sees upside risks to the inflation outlook and decided to act. While economic activity is clearly slowing there hasn't been convincing evidence as yet, in the Australian context, that inflation is on a sustainable downward trajectory Image
#RBA notes the award wage decision. It notes that wages growth it expects is consistent with the inflation target "provided that productivity growth picks up". Productivity that it hopes will pick up as businesses come under pressure, policymakers have done little to ensure this Image
Growth will more than likely slow in tomorrow's national accounts, but the #RBA's focus is squarely on this chart. The absurdity of the national accounts being released a day after the Bank meets manifest yet again. I trust it will change as the review measures are implemented Image

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More from @IFM_Economist

Jun 7
AU March quarter GDP shows the softening pulse of growth

A long thread of all the data and charts you could want Image
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Read 21 tweets
Jun 6
Net exports subtract much less than expected from Q1 real GDP growth as services offset goods impact.

Seems at least GDP growth will most likely be a positive number Image
The trade surplus offset by the net income deficit to a large degree. Fair to say foreign entities investing in Australia has have a good year or so. Image
Direct investment (much of it in the resources sector) and portfolio investment in debt are the key contributors to the net income deficit. Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 28
Australian retail sales for Feb comes in right on market expectations at 0.2%mom, coming after a rebound in January. Signs of retail slowdown are evident but not a red flag for the #RBA to pause next week
In level terms retail sales remain well above where the pre-pandemic trend suggests they should be
Per capita retail sales values are still at pretty astonishing levels, the downside risk to this is clear given the impacts of rising interest rates on discretionary spend in particular
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
Trade balance for December not moving the needle with the headline surplus intact
Both the goods and the services balances edging lower
Resources exports weaker offset somewhat by non-monetary gold and other non primary goods
Read 4 tweets
Feb 6
Retail volumes for Q4 were slightly better than expected but still negative and weighing slightly on quarterly GDP growth
If not for food (prepared and unprepared) being solid the number would have been a lot worse with a 2.1%qoq decline in retail sales of durable goods.
Based on the declining demand for durable goods it seems reasonable to expect the aggressive price increases in the quarter will start to fade
Read 4 tweets

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