Anders Åslund Profile picture
Jun 6 5 tweets 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The Russian blowing up of the Nova Kakhovka dam means that its war on Ukraine has entered a new phase.
Initially, Putin intended to seize the whole of Ukraine and did not want to destroy its infrastructure.
2. From September 2022, Putin limited his endeavors to capture the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia & Kherson. In spite of failing to do so, he has insisted by formally incorporating these territories, much of which he does not control, in Russia.
3. Now Putin has given up on@seizing Ukraine. Blowing up the important Nova Kakhovka dam is the start of general destruction of Ukraine. The flooding will harm the villages on the left, Russian-occupied bank of Dnipro the worst.
Without water available for the big Crimea canal, Crimea is no longer sustainable. By blowing up this dam, Putin has given up on Crimea. He had better evacuate his troops ASAP.
4. Most worrisome is that Ukrainian officials have reported that the Russians have prepared to blow up all the six reactors in the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station. They are preparing for a nuclear catastrophe. The West (the US) must raise its threats to stop the madman Putin!

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More from @anders_aslund

Jun 5
The Chinese leaders have devoted uncommon attention to Russia's PM Mikhail Mishustin.
1. When President Xi Jinping visited Moscow for an official visit in March, he had a very untypical meeting with PM Mishustin contrary to standard protocol.
2. Somewhat less conspicuously, the Chinese PM invited PM Mishustin to an official visit to Beijing on May 23-24. On the second day of his visit, Xi Jinping received Mishustin, once again completely out of Chinese & Russian protocol.
3. This cannot have gone down well with Putin. Mishustin is one of 13 members of the Security Council, which meets about every tenth day. Usually all but one or two are present. Mishustin was missing both on May 26 and June 2 after his return from his triumphant visit.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 4
Kurt Volker: "By any reasonable definition of the word, Russia’s Black Sea blockade of maritime trade with Ukraine equates to piracy, or at least the threat of it."
"It is time to break the Russian blockade."
cepa.org/article/time-t…
the US, the UK, "the Netherlands, the G7, European Union, and all NATO allies, should now demand that Russia immediately drop its implied threats to normal commercial shipping in international waters in the Black Sea, and...that Ukrainian ports will immediately be re-opened..."
The Montreux Convention of 1936 regarding the Regime of the Straits governs the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits in Turkey. It regulates maritime traffic through the Turkish Straits. It guarantees "complete freedom" of passage for all civilian vessels in times of peace.
Read 6 tweets
May 6
ISW: "The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, putting the Wagner Group and Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in a potentially difficult position."
ISW: "Wagner’s continued persistence within Bakhmut is incongruent with the overall slow-down...of Russian offensive operations...in Ukraine as conventional Russian forces appear to be largely shifting focus to prepare to receive the much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive."
ISW: "Recently dismissed former Deputy Minister of Defense for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev is reportedly serving as deputy commander of the Wagner Group, likely as part of Wagner’s campaign to retain access to Russian military supplies."
Read 4 tweets
May 4
Let me sum up why the "drones" over the Kremlin look like a false flag operation:
1. The Kremlin always lie.
2. The Kremlin instantly accused Ukraine when they could not know anything. It could be independent Russian partisans.
3. The Kremlin falsely claimed that it was an attempt on Putin's life, which is impossible. Ukrainian intelligence is excellent & all know Putin lives in Novoe Ogarevo.
4. Two men were on the roof of the Senate when the "bomb" hit & they were unperturbed.
5. The "bombs" were little but fireworks.
6. If this was a hostile act, we would have expected a wild manhunt & many arrests, but I have not heard or seen anything about it. = the culprits were known as with the house bombings in September 1999.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 23
@FredKempe: "Three logical flaws stand in the way of a sufficient response to the Ukraine challenge"
"The first logical flaw is that the West must deter itself so as not to provoke a more escalatory response from Putin...
atlanticcouncil.org/content-series…
"The truth, experience shows, is that only the clear demonstration of determination deters despots."
@FredKempe: "The second is that the United States needs to reduce its commitments in Europe to address the greater global challenge of China. The truth is that those contests are inseparable, as underscored by Putin’s recent meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Moscow."
Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
The US military intelligence leak is just mind-boggling because of the extraordinary incompetence of the Pentagon. Many heads must roll!
1. Why did a 21-year old national guard air man have access to all this top secret intelligence that did not concern him?
2. The Pentagon needs to tighten up its rules of access so that only those who need the information can get it.
3. How was it possible that this information was out for one and a half months & nobody noticed? Even after @nytimes published, it took louse US law enforcement 1 week!
4. The @washingtonpost seems to have done most to reveal the culprit, while the FBI just followed the Post. What is this?!
5. The Pentagon needs to tighten the distribution of top secret intelligence, make sure it sees how it goes & establish effective tracking.
Read 4 tweets

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