Thread by @MarkHertling

The failure or destruction of the #NovaKakhovka dam will cause significant humanitarian issues and it will certainly affect the execution of Ukraine's offense & Russian defensive operations.

UKR has stated they anticipated this potential disaster. 1/5

cnn.com/europe/live-ne…

As a great commander, I suspect Gen Zaluzhny had incorporated this possibility as one of his planning factors for the offensive.

As Multinational Division-North Commander in Iraq in 2007-8, we also had a dam

The Mosul ("Saddam") Dam on the Tigris. 2/

link.springer.com/article/10.100…

Generating hydroelectric power & irrigation for most of the Kurdish and northern Iraqi provinces, it was considered the most poorly constructed dam in the world.

Like the NK Dam in Ukraine, it had about 11.1 km3 of water, and it's destruction would have been catastrophic. 3/

It was also contested...between Kurds & Arabs. Al Qaida posted several notices that they were attempting to destroy it to cause more division in the Iraqi society & a humanitarian disaster.

The @USACE provided modeling of what a failure would look like downstream, to Baghdad. 4/

It never was attacked & it didn't fail.

It's since received repairs, but it's still a tenuous structure.

@1stArmoredDiv had many contingencies to deal with the disasters.

I'd bet the Ukraine do, too, but it will be a tough mission and it will affect the fight. 5/5