Thread by @FTusa284

@thinkdefence @UKDefenceJourn @harry_lye @RoyalNavy @Dominic2306 @DomNicholls @MarkNicolDM @MarkHookham @sylviapfeifer @SheridanDani @jeromestarkey @DefenceHQ @DefenceHQPress @JohnHealey_MP @rich_scott2 In the aftermath of @NavyLookout story on HMS Westminster...

...the mice are scurrying in all directions about the state of the RN escort fleet. I've now had half doz sources - all in the same capability area - coming up with the same thing in the aftermath of the de factor retirement of HMS Westminster. She's not the last to see this.

Now, this could all be circular talk - it happens. But triangulating sources is suggestive that there is a kernel of summat going on here. The "name in the frame" is HMS Lancaster, the forward deployed Type 23.

But of as much interest, several sources have said, "there's a third, equally knackered Type 23". The word is that either a refit would be incredibly expensive - which killed Westminster - and lengthy the ship would be out of service for so long that you might as well retire it.

Now, 3 T23s saw no days at sea in 2022 anyway. BTW, I *get* that ships have to undergo maintenance; I *get* that there is a series of upgrades such as the PGMU - this is all completely *accepted* as part of the life of any ship class, it's normal.

I also *get* that in the 2021 White Paper/IR, it was announced that HMS's Monmouth and Montrose were both to be retired early. Honestly, I get it...

But let's do the maths: flotilla was 13, is now 11 with planned retirements, and down to 10 with Westminster.

If there are 2 more T23s to go early, maybe even this year/early next year, what might this mean for RN commitments with a fleet of 8 T23s? If one of these ships were to be a TAS vessel, will UK Plc have enough ASW ships for tasking? You can't pop a River-class into role...

And a key issue: you can't just say, "OK, bring HMS Glasgow into service earlier". There is some scope for delivery about 9mths earlier, but supply chains being what they are, it's like trying to speed up a laden lorry: foot on the pedal, but it takes time to pick up speed.

Best (current) estimate of how long it would take to get the drumbeat up to one T26 pa, maybe faster? About 2yrs, maybe 30mths. Govan is scaled for a lengthy (far from ideal) T26 delivery rate - and it's not like turning a tap on. And T31 delivery rate now not as rapid either.

Should one be surprised that a ship with an 18yr design life, a ship class that has been - in a good sense - thrashed over the years, starts to face exhaustion? Even with serious maintenance (T23s in LIFEX have had concrete poured into the hulls the help strengthen them)...

...you just get tired, metal fails, you name it? Absolutely not.

But there are some really serious industrial lessons here about capacity, flex, and all those things that Ukraine has - or at least ought to - brought to attention.

In a note to @CommonsDefence in 2021, then @FirstSeaLord, now @AdmTonyRadakin_ said that he would keep T23s in service longer than planned to ensure that FF/DD numbers did not fall below 17: 6+11. 17 was seen as the minimum. Westminster means this is now 16 - 14 to come soon?