Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Jun 7 19 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Tucker Carlson yesterday made incorrect and false claims about the situation with Kakhovka dam explosion.

The list of claims and refutations.

1. The Dam was effectively Russian. It was built by the Russian government, and it is in Russian-controlled territory.

1/ Image
The only part that is true here is that the dam is Russian occupied. And that’s exactly why they are the ones who destroyed it. But more about this later.

It is false that the dam was built by the government of Russia. At the time of the dam construction, Russia did not exist.2
Russia was just one republic in the Soviet Union and not the one that built the dam. The dam was built by the government and the people of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. Those were Ukrainians. Engineers, construction workers, companies supplying materials were 🇺🇦 3/
I am not sure what it means to say “the dam was effectively Russian”. If you mean, physical control acquired by force - yes. If you mean legally, as recognized by the international law or by local laws of the country - then no. 4/
Tucker then says that 2. The dam's reservoir supplies water to Crimea, which has been for the last 240 years home of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. 5/
The first part is correct. But Tucker omits that the reservoir supplies water also to Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Dnipro regions, cities, industry, and farming relies on this water. 6/
Tucker then throws in the argument about Crimea being the home for the black fleet for a long time. Yes, but on contracting terms. As a foreign naval base. After the independence in 1991, Ukraine and Russia signed multiple treaties about the status of the Black Sea Fleet. 7/
Russia violated them. In 2014, Russia illegally annexed Crimea. So, I guess, in his world view, Crimea is “effectively” Russian. But so was Kherson, Kyiv, and Kharkiv region. Now they are “effectively” and legally Ukrainian. So an irrelevant point, really! 8/
3. Blowing up the dam may be bad for Ukraine, but it hurts Russia more.

That’s just speculation. But even if that were true, it means nothing. Shooting down MH17 was bad for Ukraine (it shot down commercial airspace above Donbas), but it hurts Russia more (if it did it). 9/
And indeed, Russia did it. This was proven in courts despite Russian denials and distractions.

4. And for precisely that reason, the Ukrainian government has considered destroying it. 10/
Tucker argues that Ukraine is going to risk tens of thousands of lives, destroy its regional economy and environment for decades to hurt Crimea or Russian-occupied part of Kherson.

This is silly because to hurt Crimea Ukraine could have blown up the Crimean canal elsewhere. 11/
It is also absurd and cruel because it is Russia that killed ethnic Russian it vows to protect in Mariupol in tens of thousands, it is Russia that deported ethnic Russians or mobilized them and send them to die in Bakhmut and elsewhere. 12/
5. Tucker than brings up that “the Washington Post quoted a Ukrainian general saying his men had fired American-made rockets at the dam's floodgate as a test strike”. This, he implies it must have been Ukraine 13/
I couldn’t locate the quote or the facts that Ukraine has fired on the dam to “test” the dam structural resistance.

In fact, Russians have fired over the winter on and around dams trying to destroying energy infrastructure. I have witnessed results of some of these strikes. 14/
The dams are built with extreme excessive robustness and safety measures. Engineers say that a dam like that cannot be taken out by missiles. Indeed, recall how many strikes off Antoniva bridge it took to make it difficult to travel - dozens. 15/
And this is not a bridge, but a much stronger structure.

Tucker then brings up the recent report in WP about Ukrainian plans for Nord Stream sabotage. That article is damaging but it doesn’t provide evidence that Ukrainians did anything of the sort. 16/
Then he goes after Zelensky, accuses him of being anti Christian (not true), referred to a recent erring between Lindsey Graham and Zelensky (they are killing Russians!), and implied that Putin has no interest in doin nasty things in Ukraine. 17/
These are manipulative rhetorical devices that polarize and mobilize the audience by bringing in politics and negative emotions.

There is one thing I want to mention though - it Russians who are killing both Ukrainians and Russians. They can stop it any time by withdrawing. 18/
Regardless of what Tucker believes about Ukrainians and Zelensky in particular, there is a clear big picture - Russia invaded and killed tens of thousands. Russia wants to rule by force, not rules or diplomacy. It is important not to lose the sight of the villain here - Russia. X

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 8
should be working on designing and commuting to a new effective security framework that can contain and discipline Russia. And that I am afraid that politicians are myopic and are not thinking about this.

I also said that next Russia can do a Zaprizhzhiya nuclear power plant. 2
Willy he works the. Also debate for weeks about whose fault was it?

I also said that many businesses, it all but many, have not truly pulled out from Russia and / or have left buy back clauses, just in case. This means that they think there will be business back to normal 3/
At least someday. But that’s an illusion. It won’t happen until Putin is gone and Russia is changed.

I also listed damages in Lakhovka - between 1 and 2 billion dollars with 150 000 households affected. 4/
Read 4 tweets
Jun 8
I spoke today in Stockholm.

People said I was angry. I felt I was honest.

I said that I am appalled by the world (non-) reaction to Kakhovka. It must be a game changer, but it is not.

I said that Russia has hacked the EU security frameworks and the EU and North America 1/ Image
should be working on designing and commuting to a new effective security framework that can contain and discipline Russia. And that I am afraid that politicians are myopic and are not thinking about this.

I also said that next Russia can do a Zaprizhzhiya nuclear power plant. 2
Willy he works the. Also debate for weeks about whose fault was it?

I also said that many businesses, it all but many, have not truly pulled out from Russia and / or have left buy back clauses, just in case. This means that they think there will be business back to normal 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jun 8
Former president of Estonia Kersti Kaljulaid on security for Ukraine and Europe.

Ukraine security lies in NATO. If Ukraine is not in NATO it won’t be safe.

But where does lie the security of Europe? In the regime change in Russia.

Ukraine will fight for its territory 1/ Image
And people. Ukraine wins when it gets its territory back. But once it happens Ukraine stops fighting.

Does this mean a victory for Europe? No, because Russia is a dangerous regime that will continue to menace Europe (she then lists examples of Russian attacks on Europe soil 2/
Including a recent explosion of the ammunition in Czech or Salisbury poisoning, or pipeline sabotage etc).

Russia regime is not that different from that of Germany in WWII.

And so what does victory mean for Europe? It is when I’m Russian textbooks there will be the history 3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 8
@KSE_Institute assesses damages from Kakhovka explosion (preliminary):

1. 80 towns and villages are flooded or can be flooded.

2. That is 360 000 people or 150 000 households.

3. Housing damages at $1 billion, but can go down substantively if the water subsides soon. 1/
Housing damages are calculated as : 150K households x 80 m x 850$ x 20% leave of damage x 50% of households affected.

4. Total infrastructure damages are at $1 billion or above, specifically

- Ukrainian hydro energy operator stated that the plant damage is at $500 million 2/
The calculation: $1,5 million / MW x 335 MW.

However, rebuilding the power plant and the dam might cost $1 billion or more.

- roads damage at $100 million.

- ports and terminals at $120 million

- education infrastructure at $100 million

- health infrastructure at $16 mln 3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 7
What does Kakhovka teaches us about what would happen if Russia used a nuke in Ukraine?

Today I got in debate with my good friend from Europe.

I said that Kakhovka teaches us that there will be no real western response. My friend disagreed.

Here are our arguments. 1/
My point is that Kakhovka happened and then what?

1. There is no strong and unified response from the West. 2/
2. The Western media debate who is at fault since Russia denies it did it.

3. But Ukrainian society is mobilized and Ukraine military operations are unaffected. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 7
We must save people and animals.

I am angry at Russians, I am sad that some people are confused and can’t tell bad Russia from good Ukraine, and I am crying about people and animals who are suffering in Kherson.

I will work harder, and I will do more to help defeat 🇷🇺

1/ Image
Read 5 tweets

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