Neil Lareau Profile picture
Jun 7 4 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/n: On the plus side, as the closed low drifts slowly westward the fires in #Quebec are likely to be *somewhat* less prolific in their smoke production today. In this loop you can see the clouds overspreading the fire region:
2/n: Looking at the thermal IR you can clearly see the fires and the clouds moving overhead
3/n: This likely means that the HRRR/RAP smoke forecasts for later today (image) are overdone, since they are (last I checked) based on persistence in the satellite detected fire data and don't have a coupled fire-atmosphere model. So maybe tomorrow's smoke won't be quite as bad. Image
4/n: The flip side is that with less active fires, sometimes the smoldering combustion produces extremely high concentrations at ground level (less lofting) in regions proximal to the fire.

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More from @nplareau

Jun 8
The 2023 Canadian fire season is like no-other in the satellite record (2000-pres). Here are the accumulated fire-radiative power (FRP) curves, with 2023 (magenta) in a league of its own. Note that smoke production is proportional to FRP. (data= MODIS, results= prelim) #pyrocene Image
For reference here is a similar analysis for Western US, note the exceptional 2020 and 2021 fire years. The labor day 2020 fire outbreak was really something else. Note that these plots are not fire area, but the combined effect of area and intensity. @ggweather Image
1/n: What is "Fire-Radiative Power"? Its a measure of the rate (Joules/second) at which fires emit radiant energy in the form of thermal (infrared) radiation. This is much like what you feel from a wood stove: add logs the radiant heat goes up.
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