Ukrainian Zaporozhe Offensive Day 4 update
After an operational pause yesterday the Ukrainians resumed attacks, with a large push north of Bakhmut and a smaller one on the border in Belgorod.
The main effort, however, materialized south of Orekhovo attacking towards Tokmak.
After an operational pause yesterday the Ukrainians resumed attacks, with a large push north of Bakhmut and a smaller one on the border in Belgorod.
The main effort, however, materialized south of Orekhovo attacking towards Tokmak.
The Ukrainian Army appears to have thrown a division-sized element at the Russian lines south of Orekhovo, with large attacks reported (Ukrainian time) yesterday afternoon (image 1), last night (image 2), and another one as I write this in the morning (image 3).
The attack last night was reported by WarGonzo (a Russian "voenkor" war correspondent group) as being a full brigade attacking with four battalion groups of some 30 vehicles each.
It was preceded by a large GMLRS strike on Tokmak itself.
It was preceded by a large GMLRS strike on Tokmak itself.
Thanks to stiff Russian fire and air superiority, the excellent Russian air defense system swatting incoming missiles from the sky, and a stubborn defense at the front line, these attacks all broke down with heavy losses and no to minimal gains.
Russian aerial forces showed particular distinction. I understand there were a large number of Russian attack helicopters and close air support aircraft on station last night supporting the defense. Russian loitering munitions also played a large part.
Pictures and video of the carnage have been emerging all day. Some highlights:
1. Eight AFU vehicles knocked out near Bakhmut
2. German-donated IRIS-T battery destroyed with artillery in Kherson
3. Abandoned T-64BV
4. Knocked out Swedish-donated CV90 (?)
1. Eight AFU vehicles knocked out near Bakhmut
2. German-donated IRIS-T battery destroyed with artillery in Kherson
3. Abandoned T-64BV
4. Knocked out Swedish-donated CV90 (?)
More highlights from yesterday's fighting, this one of Russian attack helicopters engaging vehicles and an AFU mechanized company bogged down in a minefield.
Another video that emerged yesterday of abandoned Ukrainian armor following another unsuccessful attack on the Belgorod border.
Of interest, Russian troops recovered Black Hornet micro-drones from Ukrainian commandos in the Belgorod region. This is high-end gear and shows just how lavishly-equipped these troops have been.
Totally normal patch in #4 that wouldn't get you kicked out of the US Army.
Totally normal patch in #4 that wouldn't get you kicked out of the US Army.
The usual suspects in the pro-Ukrainian information sphere have been silent all day about this attack or are attempting to write it off as a "probe" or "reconnaissance in force," which is ridiculous. Much more of this and they won't have a "counterattack force" left.
A meme:
A meme:
In all likelihood the plan looked something like this (credit to the redoubtable @MNormanDavies whom you should all follow immediately) and after initial failures the AFU blew the Khakovka Dam and is now working on a scaled-down "branch" operation aimed only at Zaporozhe.
Ukrainian losses appear to have been extremely heavy, with reports coming in last night of at least one unit refusing to attack.
A now-rare "refusenik" video surfaced today of Ukrainian troops complaining they had been sent into combat with no support.
t.me/cheburashkas_w…
A now-rare "refusenik" video surfaced today of Ukrainian troops complaining they had been sent into combat with no support.
t.me/cheburashkas_w…
What's particularly damning to me is the failure of Ukrainian long-range fires assets to affect the battle, which - given the level of control EUCOM apparently exercises over targeting - is a direct failure of NATO. They have a lot of their real assets allocated to this mission.
As with any war, however, sometimes things can be quite ridiculous. To end on a lighter note:
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