Yesterday's thread is linked below, touching on:
🔹Russian scorched earth policy in action
🔹Irrigation
🔹Extent/consequences of flooding and response
🔹How dams collapse
🔹Thoughts on Russian propagandists' thoughts
4/ A 🧵 examining the Russian argument - and the nonsense that it is.
One thing that I'd add to @mfphhh here is -- Russians are doing the opposite, they are shooting at people under their occupation who are trying to leave, go away from floodwaters.
8/ A year of dropping grenades/mortar shells into Russian tanks' hatches is paying off.
And, contrast this with the Russians who shoot at both people in territories they occupy trying to evacuate and Ukrainian drones trying to keep them alive.
14/ This is a very interesting highlight from @dkaleniuk. And this is something Russian combat engineers would either be well aware of, or would at least have consultants who would be. (c.f. Rosatom participating in occupation of the ZNPP.)
15/ And we know Russians bragged about having mined the dam back in October. Zelenskyy publicised the possibility plenty also: 🔗bbc.com/news/world-eur…
And note tweet 2/ above: Ukrhydroprojekt chief engineer makes it clear the blast came from inside.
18/ In two hours (10am Eastern, 1700 Kyiv), @MriyaReport#TwitterSpace will host Halyna Luhova, Secretary of Kherson City Council and former acting mayor to learn about the state of and response to flooding.
1/ Time for a new🧵 - news and thoughts regarding the blasted dam will be collated below.
The previous thread on:
🔹flood maps
🔹flooding
🔹consequences to military plans
🔹humanitarian disaster
🔹most importantly: Russian scorched earth policy in action
3/ Key thing to highlight here is that Russians are employing a scorched earth policy. If they don't expect to hold this area, they want to deny the utility of it to 🇺🇦 in the long run.
@VVoytsitska was the first to highlight this to me - she is right.
Twitter is now being flooded with flooding scenarios. @OSINTMISCIF is correct to label this as a "worst case scenario". That graphic is from scaremongering Russian telegram from October. Indeed - a worst case scenario.
Patriarch Kirill awarded Orban with an Order of Glory and Honour I. class on the occasion of his 60th birthday, for doing a good job for Hungary and defending Christian values.
It is also the anniversary of Orban preventing EU personal sanctions being levied against Kirill🤔
1/ Let me flesh this out a little bit in a short 🧵.
I don’t think this is the most likely end. Don't bother replying with "It won't happen!", I already agree. But it is a possibility, a thought experiment going past where most discussions ever would.
2/ The next few tweets are a preface. Setting the stage. Skip to tweet #8 for the novelty.
First, remember that the full-scale Russian genocidal invasion of Ukraine is a *war of choice* waged by a country with *an Orwellian society*. For 🇺🇦 it’s not, it’s an existential war.
3/ Wars of choice commonly end with:
a) Outright victory - but Russians won't
: 🇺🇦 & partners like 🇺🇸 and Tallinn Pledge countries won't allow it
b) Devastating loss - but 🇺🇦 tanks won’t roll into Moscow (frankly, at this rate, nor will the Russian tanks, bar T-34s and Armatas)