Domen Prešern Profile picture
Jun 8 26 tweets 10 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/
New day, new flooding 🧵

Yesterday's thread is linked below, touching on:
🔹Russian scorched earth policy in action
🔹Irrigation
🔹Extent/consequences of flooding and response
🔹How dams collapse
🔹Thoughts on Russian propagandists' thoughts

2/
Key point from yesterday - local expert says explosion had to have come from inside the dam.

4/
A 🧵 examining the Russian argument - and the nonsense that it is.

One thing that I'd add to @mfphhh here is -- Russians are doing the opposite, they are shooting at people under their occupation who are trying to leave, go away from floodwaters.

5/
Despite how much water there was in Kakhovka reservoir, this will help. Normal reaction of course.

7/
🧵 compiling satellite imagery to gauge extent of overall flooding - hoping for more updates from @Nrg8000 soon.

8/
A year of dropping grenades/mortar shells into Russian tanks' hatches is paying off.

And, contrast this with the Russians who shoot at both people in territories they occupy trying to evacuate and Ukrainian drones trying to keep them alive.

9/

Same as 4/, but now in English:
Cheers @mfphhh!

10/
Mitigation plans in full force - even before a replacement dam will be build, irrigation systems might be resuscitated.

11/
How the destruction of the dam benefits the Russian military, a 🧵.

If only that could speak to Russian motives. 😅

12/
Note that Saldo, the head of the occupation administration, likewise claims the flooding benefits Russia.

So that's one of tankies' favoured arguments out of the way, yet again.

13/
Russian propagandists think flooding hundreds of thousands of civilians is a great idea.

Who could possibly have done it, eh?

14/
This is a very interesting highlight from @dkaleniuk. And this is something Russian combat engineers would either be well aware of, or would at least have consultants who would be. (c.f. Rosatom participating in occupation of the ZNPP.)

15/
And we know Russians bragged about having mined the dam back in October. Zelenskyy publicised the possibility plenty also: 🔗bbc.com/news/world-eur…

And note tweet 2/ above: Ukrhydroprojekt chief engineer makes it clear the blast came from inside.

16/
On a side point, I've mentioned the Norwegian seismic analysis already, below for reference:

17/
Russians shelling a low lying area of flooded Kherson, where evacuation is underway.

18/
In two hours (10am Eastern, 1700 Kyiv), @MriyaReport #TwitterSpace will host Halyna Luhova, Secretary of Kherson City Council and former acting mayor to learn about the state of and response to flooding.

Join at link below:
🔗twitter.com/i/spaces/1nAKE…

19/
Russians shelling evacuation efforts. Those trying to save Ukrainians are, of course, a danger to their goals.

20/
Because Russians want to kill Ukrainians. That is their goal. Where floodwaters weren't enough, they employ other means on top of that.

21/
Today, in Odesa. In a few days, in Constanta 🇷🇴.

22/
Interesting point on water for irrigation in Crimea - Russians might indeed be deluded enough to have thought two years of storage are enough.

Cc @VVoytsitska

23/
Yeah, coincidences like this happen all the time, right? Russians love their bureaucracy, and it often telegraphs their intentions.

I held back on noting this decree, lacking ability to authenticate, but am more confident now @michaeldweiss noted it.

24/
Russian shelling of Kherson continues, as do Ukrainian evacuation and mitigation efforts.

How will Russian propagandists cover this one?

25/
"The dam didn't collapse from prior damage", a 🧵:

26/
A heartwarming moment, despite everything, @ukrposhta still keeping some flooded communities connected.

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More from @domenpresern

Jun 9
1/
Day 4 - 🧵 on destruction of the dam and consequences stemming from it.

See yesterday's thread below:
2/
@radiosvoboda has published an SBU intercept of Russian military communications.

The intercept suggests Russians blew up the dam intentionally, but intended for lesser damage. Take that as you will

radiosvoboda.org/a/news-viyska-…
3/
The SBU put it on their own website as well:

ssu.gov.ua/novyny/perekho…
Read 12 tweets
Jun 7
1/
Time for a new🧵 - news and thoughts regarding the blasted dam will be collated below.

The previous thread on:
🔹flood maps
🔹flooding
🔹consequences to military plans
🔹humanitarian disaster
🔹most importantly: Russian scorched earth policy in action

2/
There was an explosion. @VVoytsitska told us as much, graphs seem to likewise.

3/
Key thing to highlight here is that Russians are employing a scorched earth policy. If they don't expect to hold this area, they want to deny the utility of it to 🇺🇦 in the long run.

@VVoytsitska was the first to highlight this to me - she is right.

Read 26 tweets
Jun 6
Twitter is now being flooded with flooding scenarios. @OSINTMISCIF is correct to label this as a "worst case scenario". That graphic is from scaremongering Russian telegram from October. Indeed - a worst case scenario.

However ... (continued)

1/4

I would suggest you read this thread from @osint_east to explain things:

2/4

There's a version of the video for twitter here, by Swedish hydrological engineers, whom I trust more than Russian telegram.

3/4

Read 9 tweets
Jun 4
🇭🇺

Patriarch Kirill awarded Orban with an Order of Glory and Honour I. class on the occasion of his 60th birthday, for doing a good job for Hungary and defending Christian values.

It is also the anniversary of Orban preventing EU personal sanctions being levied against Kirill🤔
Source, 2 Jun 2023: index.hu/belfold/2023/0…

Source 2, 2 Jun 2022: euronews.com/my-europe/2022…
By comparison 🇨🇿, another Visegrad 4 country, made its own personal sanctions' list, at least initially just for Patriarch Kirill.

Read 4 tweets
Feb 5
1/ Let me flesh this out a little bit in a short 🧵.

I don’t think this is the most likely end. Don't bother replying with "It won't happen!", I already agree. But it is a possibility, a thought experiment going past where most discussions ever would.

2/ The next few tweets are a preface. Setting the stage. Skip to tweet #8 for the novelty.

First, remember that the full-scale Russian genocidal invasion of Ukraine is a *war of choice* waged by a country with *an Orwellian society*. For 🇺🇦 it’s not, it’s an existential war.
3/ Wars of choice commonly end with:
a) Outright victory - but Russians won't
: 🇺🇦 & partners like 🇺🇸 and Tallinn Pledge countries won't allow it
b) Devastating loss - but 🇺🇦 tanks won’t roll into Moscow (frankly, at this rate, nor will the Russian tanks, bar T-34s and Armatas)
Read 13 tweets

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