Thread by @ThreshedThought

NEW Ukr counteroffensive thread.

Liberal Crayons

Old thread here. Covers extensive shaping operations.

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1656727045076819969

Clearly this week there has been an escalation of Ukr efforts.

There is activity on a number of fronts.

This is deliberate as it stretches the Russians.

Broadly this is the sketch. Clockwise from top right:

- Bahkmut
- Vuhledar
- Tokmak

Bahkmut

The Russians took this a few weeks ago but then Wagner started pulling out and handing areas over to the Russian military.

The Ru mil haven’t been able to hold these areas and the Ukrainians are pushing on the flanks to threaten (or carry out an encirclement)

This operation I think is to soak up Russian forces and cause splits between different elements of the Russian forces (Wagner, military, Chechens, etc)

Vuhledar

This section of the front line doesn’t have as many physical defences and the Ru forces are relatively weakened due to a serious of stupid wasteful Russian attacks earlier in the year.

I would say this is speculative. If it proves fruitful then the Ukr will exploit… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Tokmak

… is a super important railway junction and logistics hub for the Russians. See threads going back months.

There is a huge uptick of Ukr activity in this area including limited armoured thrusts with Leopard tanks.

Most importantly, it has become clear that Ukr has been stockpiling artillery ammo esp HIMARs and that this are now being used to smash their way through Russian defenders.

This axis is the obvious main effort but we haven’t yet seen the main force so let’s see.

Of course while all this is going on the Ukr are hitting Belgogrod just to keep the Russians occupied.

That’s the overview for now. More of an update when stuff becomes clear.

Important to note we are not at the main thrust stage at all. Far from it. Main effort not yet clear.

Reports of quite a lot of progress being made on the Tokmak axis. First line fallen, Russians running away in one or two places, Ukrainian losses.

Tokmak a perfect target. As a railway hub it’s capture will reduce the supplies going to Melitopol and west

Lots of HIMARs being used on Russian positions there once identified by the Ukrainian advance. You could almost call it a recce in force.

I have a hunch. Tokmak could be to fix the Russian reserve (as the most obvious axis of assault) and Vuhledar the main axis.

Let’s see.

If I were Ukraine I would want to see Russia commit its reserve.

Sorry. Wrong tweet, now deleted. Should have said:

Early reports, second defensive line on Tokmak axis has been breached.

If you want to understand the war better …

amzn.eu/d/11fCIaa

The Ukrainians have opened up another front.

1 Towards Tokmak
2 Bahkmut
3 Vuhledar
4 Velyka Novosilka (new one)

Easy for the Ukrainians to reinforce a successful axis. Difficult for the Russians to move their defences around.

Still not clear which is the main Ukrainian axis. No sign of the Russian reserve yet.

👀Svatove. Somethings going on up there. A strike there would sever the Russian logistics running down into the Donbas.

This is pretty similar to last autumn.

Draw the Russians in in the south and then take advantage of the thinned Russians lines in the north.

Don’t forget Ukraine has a huge advantage with interior lines

Oh wow. It’s all happening. Kremlin now bringing all PMCs (Wagner) under centralised control.

Not sure that’s going to go down that well.

Lots of Ukrainian partisan strikes on railways south of Melitopol and in Crimea. Russian military relies on rail for its logistics so these are significant strikes.

Front 3 and 4 are clearly now one operational area. Ukrainians pushing hard there and have had some successes.

I think Mariupol might be main effort

About 60 miles.

Ukrainians announcing that in some places they have made 7km of ground, and in others 3km.

Seems to be going well then.

Also clear that the main Ukrainian force not yet engaged.

12 brigades and several thousand armoured vehicles still waiting to strike.

Weather has been a bit poor this week, but picked up yesterday, so we should be getting more reports in today.