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Glenn Profile picture
@GlennLuk
Jun 9 • 7 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Scrolly
Must-read case study on how we went from discovering key enabling technologies to being behind in the battery race.

Some key takeaways …
▪️ We have a world-class university system that can consistently make breakthrough discoveries

Driven by ability to attract talented immigrants

Our scientific and research capabilities at the university-level are second to none ImageImage
▪️ We are not world-class at commercialization

China is relentless at commercialization

Who is our MITI?

ImageImage
Key charts and data:

▪️ Global sales of EVs
▪️ Lithium-ion Battery manufacturing capacity ImageImage
The original A123 founding team and early hires.

Many of the core tech employees were immigrants. ImageImage
This has proven to be extremely shortsighted.

IBM "I think there's a world market for maybe five computers” vibes Image
Are polarized politics going to get in the way, again?

Both sides are at fault here!

Image

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More from @GlennLuk

Glenn Profile picture
Jun 9
In the US-China rivalry, the ones that need convincing aren't Americans & Chinese. Like hometown fans, their minds are already largely made up.

It's the ~78% rest of the world — and their voices — that will matter the most in the long run.

@FareedZakaria @mahbubani_k
At its core, this is a rivalry over hegemony.

America wants to remain a clear #1.

China wants to be treated as an equal power.
RoW is far more neutral on this particular dynamic than the two protaganists.

For the most part, they just want it to be resolved as quickly as possible and for the world to find a new equilibrium without getting blown up in the process.
Read 5 tweets
Glenn Profile picture
Jun 9
As much focus — often appropriately so — as there is on the wastefulness from over-building and under-utilization of apartment buildings + offices in China ...

... we should also keep in mind the same issues with parking lots and suburban retail across America Image
China may be catching up to the developed world in living space per capita ... Image
... but we are trouncing everyone else in parking spaces per capita.

There are an estimated 8 parking spots for every car in this country.

fastcompany.com/90645900/ameri…
Read 13 tweets
Glenn Profile picture
Jun 8
If economies were computers, “Bidenomics” feels like a rushed beta version “Industrial Policy” patch on an old Windows 98 machine.

It’s full of bugs and the underlying hardware needs some serious upgrading across the board to make it work.
It’s a start, though: The machine was long overdue for major changes after two decades of installing bloatware.

But we’re already pushing through a lot of spend across this creaky machine and we need to upgrade the hardware while it’s running.
Meanwhile, the contract of the IT team charged with supporting this machine is coming up for renewal in 2024 and it’s not clear if the contract will be renewed.

The competing vendor has some different ideas about how to upgrade the machine.
Read 6 tweets
Glenn Profile picture
Jun 8
This ~270 km (~160 mi) trip is similar to New York to Baltimore and used to take 3+ hours by car.
I count 35 train pairs on the Hangzhou-Lishui route, peaking at about 5 trains per hour.

This route is actually below the national HSR average (~50 train pairs in January, likely ~65 now). Image
Train frequency is another transport intermodal friction cost as it drives average wait time

Good thing about highly frequent trains is that —except during holidays — you don’t need to plan your trips in advance

You can just show up and get on the next available train
Read 6 tweets
Glenn Profile picture
Jun 8
Over the years, the biggest driver of missing the forecasts has been the exchange rate assumption.
In the early 2010s, @TheEconomist baked into a LT forecast a consistent appreciation in the RMB.

By 2025 it forecast it would be in the ~5:1 range and IIRC, research houses like Goldman also baked in a similar LT appreciation as well.

economist.com/graphic-detail… Image
From 2010-2020, China grew an average of 6.8%/year and the US 2.7%/year in real terms. Instead of outgrowing the US by 65% (Economist forecast), it outgrew the US by 48%.

The big miss was on the FX rate.
Read 9 tweets
Glenn Profile picture
Jun 7
Airpocalypse 2023: NYC

Just came back from a bike tour of Lower Manhattan ImageImageImageImage
God must have been messin' around w/ his new Vision Pro and accidentally switched on the "Guadalajara X-Pro II" filter ImageImage
I swear I am on the set for Sicario 3: Escapar de Nueva York ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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