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Latest video from Russian sources shows a Ukrainian column that seems to have come to grief in a minefield - the Bradley’s tracks have been blown off and a mine clearing tank is also in shot #counteroffensive 1/ 
The idea that Ukraine is still just conducting ‘probing attacks’ and hasn’t yet started the ‘full scale’ #counteroffensive is not credible. Leopard 2A6 and Bradley is main effort stuff 2/
As I explained last night @BBCNewsnight elements of 3 western trained brigades (33th, 37th Marines, and 47th) have already been identified on the Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol axis 3/
Another pair of Ukrainian equipped reserve brigades have been identified a little to the east of there. So potentially this means we can already see where 5 of 12 brigades in the Ukrainian operational reserve are already - to some extent - engaged 4/
Of course there’s many unknowns still - such as forming of task groups from different brigades, shuffling around assets. But what we do know is that elements of the reserve with its most precious western equipment have been committed since early this week on what may be a main… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Of course the results in the Zaporizhzhia area - nb IF the images at the top of this thread are representative of broader setbacks, may lead to efforts pivoting to a different axis. This is exactly what Ukraine did late last summer #counteroffensive 6/
New Russian video shows a further attempt to breach the defences seen in the first tweet of this thread, with additional Bradleys hit. Very tough challenge to break through in the age of the omnipresent drone 7/t.me/rusich_army/92…
so how do you beat that artillery threat in order to advance & take positions? evidence in Donbas this week of a Ukrainian tactic proven last summer - a 'charge' forward in Humvees, outpacing the enemy response, delivering infantry t the objective 8/
https://twitter.com/2uwmp/status/1667536887693623299
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