Mark Urban Profile picture
Diplomatic Ed @BBCNewsnight author of Big Boys Rules, Generals, Rifles, Task Force Black, The Tank War, The Edge, The Skripal Files, Red Devils, trustee @I_W_M
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Feb 6 10 tweets 2 min read
Along with money and weapons, fresh soldiers are essential for Ukraine to keep fighting. The army asked for 500k to be called up, but has been wrangling for weeks with the president & parliament over the numbers + means of raising them. We've been in Ukraine investigating 1/ One ex official told us off camera 'we have a serious problem, if we don't solve it we're dead'. In an interview for our @BBCNewsnight report MP @Bobrovska_MP told us 'no one is confident' that the army will get its recruits in big enough numbers. So what's going on? 2/
Oct 21, 2023 10 tweets 3 min read
So far, Hezbollah, the shiite Lebanese military force, has limited its fighting with Israel, but the risks are rising. Some have speculated they will attack if Israel moves ground troops into Gaza, others that Israel itself might initiate it. Either way its very serious 1/ Israeli paper @maariv reported today that the IDF is stepping up preparations for a full scale fight with Hezbollah. And it's evident that they are on high alert in northern Israel 2/
Jun 9, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read
Latest video from Russian sources shows a Ukrainian column that seems to have come to grief in a minefield - the Bradley’s tracks have been blown off and a mine clearing tank is also in shot #counteroffensive 1/ Image The idea that Ukraine is still just conducting ‘probing attacks’ and hasn’t yet started the ‘full scale’ #counteroffensive is not credible. Leopard 2A6 and Bradley is main effort stuff 2/ Image
Jun 5, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
A big moment in the war, many advantages on Ukraine's side:
- they are smart & motivated
- this started weeks ago with shaping ops against RU logistic +symbolic targets
- Nato/US gives the best possible intel on RU weak points
- UA has held 12 brigades (c40k tps) for this 1/ It's too early to be sure about the key axes of Ukrainian ground attacks, they are currently probing and have many options:
- eastwards into the Donbas
- south from Zaporizhzhia towards the Sea of Azov
- south from Kherson to Crimea
- to expand the Belgorod incursion in RU 2/
Mar 21, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read
The most important single factor in feeding the Ukraine war is the supply of artillery ammunition (nb 152mm and 122mm for RU, those plus 155mm and 105mm for UA). I am now thinking Ukraine will get what it needs. The figures are mind boggling... 1/ In the run up to EU meetings this week @oleksiireznikov told European ministers Ukraine needs 350,000 rounds a month to sustain operations, of which 120k are rounds of 155mm needed for western supplied artillery (1.44m a year). Without that things slow right down. Now we know 2/
Sep 24, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read
So Putin's mobilisation is underway - and it's a major change in this conflict, so it merits a thread 👇. A lot of the social media coverage focuses on the tragicomic aspects - drunkenness, the wrong people getting called up, you name it 1/ Many bloggers point out it marks the abandonment of Putin's social contract with Russians that if they stay out of politics, they'll be left alone. Evidently there's every possibility the mobilisation order sparking disorder, even resistance 2/
Jun 20, 2022 14 tweets 4 min read
Of the many variables at play on the Ukrainian battlefield, could it be that the side that runs low on artillery ammunition first will have to sue for peace? This gained greater prominence after the UA general staff suggested they were in difficulties 1/ theguardian.com/world/2022/jun… There's been some push back of late to this idea, with suggestions that the Ukrainian shortages have been rectified 2/
Apr 4, 2022 9 tweets 3 min read
It seems the sting of defeat, at least in the first phase of their operation, has registered with Russian elite opinion. It is producing fear & loathing, so it would be unwise to assume that it will either undermine Putin or strengthen peace hopes. A thread ... 1/ Some of the reaction like the ideologist Timofei Sergeitsev on RIA-Novosti translated here by @francska1 has adopted genocidal rhetoric and suggested the erasure of Ukrainian identity 2/
Mar 26, 2022 8 tweets 3 min read
I've had an uneasy feeling this week with this discussion about chemical weapons and possible Nato responses. So here's a thread. The US has been suggesting for some time now that Putin might be considering using CW in Ukraine. But what capability does Russia have? 1/ We know from the Skripal and Navalny poisonings that Russia retained Novichok type agents in small quantities, possibly made to order in military & FSB labs but certainly not the hundreds of kilos or indeed tonnes you'd need for battlefield use in air dropped bombs or rockets 2/
Mar 25, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
Russia's main objective now is securing the Donbas, says Gen Sergei Rudskoy, operations chief of the general staff. Quite an important interview, combining a mixture of insight & post-rationalisation of the campaign's failures interfax-russia.ru/main/genshtab-… He says that while an assault on Kharkiv or Kyiv can't be ruled out, it's now about securing Donbas. Ops during the last two weeks appear to confirm this - big efforts to take Mariupol + some areas north of there, not much movement NW of Kyiv or near Kharkiv
Mar 3, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
The Pentagon judges that 90% of the Russian force concentrated on Ukraine's borders ten days ago has now entered the country. The first phase of their operation has happened and they are stalled. So what do they do now? 1/ There are clearly efforts going on to scrape up more combat units from Russian garrisons, and we've seen footage of kit moving west, but the invasion force already used most of their regular battalion combat groups, there's not so much left. So... 2/
Feb 20, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
Some Russian observers have mentioned that Putin may be planning to pattern operations closely on Nato's 1999 campaign against Yugoslavia over Kosovo. Early steps seem to confirm this: Putin's use of 'genocide' + the creation of a 'refugee crisis' by removing Donbas citizens 1/ If Russia goes for this Nato 'Kosplay' we can expect strikes throughout Ukraine as an instrument of coercion, thus Biden suggestion on Friday that RU would 'strike' Kyiv (not drive there), may mirror Nato actions against Belgrade + infrastructure targets like Novi Sad bridge 2/
Feb 18, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
It's not entirely clear Prez Putin knows how to proceed now, having created a crisis, assuming his objective is to topple Ukrainian govt &/or gain compliance to RU demands of neutrality.Recognising the breakaway Donbas republics could be next step 1/ themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/18/kre… Recognising the separatist republics allows for the type of Kremlin legal gymnastics we've seen in some previous crises: leaders of republics invite in Russian army to protect them, RU govt then argues it's not 'an invasion of Ukraine' but response to invitation. Such a step...2/
Feb 11, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
We are at one minute to midnight now in this Ukraine crisis. The failure of Ukraine/Russia talks in Berlin yesterday creates deep instability. Without a hope if further progress Russian separatists in E. Ukraine may declare independence 1/ If Minsk agreement peace process is dead, the breakaway Luhansk & Donetsk authorities may invite the Russian army in to protect them. Ukraine, having ignored French, German & US calls for implementation of Minsk will be isolated, nb if Russian forces stay inside those 2 areas 2/
Feb 6, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
To say there's a choice of conflict or negotiation is to miss the reality of the Ukraine crisis: we are now in a phase of what we might call coercive diplomacy. Talk, troop movements, and quite possibly force, will be mixed from here on. How so? 1/ US & Nato answered Russia's recent 'security demands' with proposals for arms control + transparency. Ukraine returned to peace talks dormant since 2019. Putin banked these gains, but on Tuesday countered 'fundamental Russian concerns were ignored', coercive diplomacy began 2/
Oct 13, 2021 11 tweets 3 min read
You'd think that having mentored, trained, & helped pay for the Afghan mobile phone+ internet surveillance system, the UK would want to limit its use by the Taliban +save those it trained. But in a special report @BBCNewsnight members of that unit allege they've been abandoned 1/ This story concerns the D011 section of the National Directorate Security (NDS) set up with UK assistance in 2009 it grew to 250+ members. The UK recognised the risk to its staff, calling around 25 to Kabul airport for evacuation. But many times that number were left behind 2/
Aug 15, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
By way of contrast, the Soviet withdrawal from Kabul in 1989: the last land column left in a blizzard a few days before the February deadline - just 3 journalists (including me) witnessed this, the last vehicle. The commander waved at us 1/4 A reinforced battalion remained at Kabul airport until the day before deadline - we were invited up to see them go 2/4
Mar 25, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
Big day for EU vaccine policy: AstraZeneca stands accused of failing to deliver, but is this mainly about politics? A thread 1/7 Under its 27/8/20 contract with the EU AZ committed 'best reasonable efforts' to deliver 30-40m doses in 4thQ 2020, & a total 110-140m by end 2ndQ 2021, but has actually come up with 30-35m. Not great but look at AZ performance on UK contract 2/7
Jan 13, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
Thread: on the problems with Covid vaccination in the EU. The 27 have bought vaccines and is approving them as a bloc. Giving those medicines to people, once okayed by the regulator, is down to member states. So first the problems with purchasing 1/ The EU, like others incl UK, spread its bets, initially buying 1.3bn doses: 200m Pfizer/Biontech; 300m AZN/Oxford; 300m Sanofi; 225 Curevac; 200m Johnson; 80m Moderna. But it was slower (by a few weeks) to do so than countries like UK, IL, & US. 2/
Oct 9, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read
Big military lessons coming out of the #Karabakh fighting between Armenia & Azerbaijan: firstly, it calls into question the future of manned combat aircraft since drones can take on exacting tasks such as the destruction of concealed or moving armour 1/ Azerbaijan invested in unpiloted aircraft - not just the big ones like Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone but also much smaller Israeli Orbiter & Harop that circle over the battlefield, costing a fraction of what they destroy let lone a fighter jet 2/
Aug 5, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
#BeirutBlast as we understand the sequence: in 2013 a Moldovan flagged vessel, Rhosus put into Beirut after suffering technical problems. It was en route Mozambique with a cargo of ammonium nitrate - unclear whether it was made for explosive or fertilizer use, it can be both 1/ Not long after Rhosus arrived in Beirut it was impounded, & its Cyprus-based Russian owners gave up on the vessel and its cargo. Given the danger of leaving this potential bomb in place, the Lebanese unloaded and impounded the cargo 2/ fleetmon.com/maritime-news/…