“It is HMG’s view that President Putin authorised the operation” to poison Sergei Skripal in March 2018, Jonathan Allen, DG Defence & Intelligence at the foreign office, told the Dawn Sturgess Inquiry today. It’s the most direct accusation against him yet by UK govt 1/ The UK government assessment is based on numerous factors, he explained: the sensitive nature of a nerve agent attack on a Nato member; the large scale of operations mounted by the GRU (it couldn’t be a rogue unit); and Putin’s legal position at the head of RU intelligence 2/

Much fascinating evidence today about Op CATERVA at the Dawn Sturgess Inquiry - that was the Top Secret investigation into the GRU team that tried to kill Sergei Skripal. Commander Dominic Murphy, SIO, was on the stand all day. So what did we learn? 1/ Lots of the detail on GRU Unit 29155 was gleaned from data delivered by Booking dot com, allowing police to home in on the hotels used by the suspects and opening up details of many other operations they'd mounted across Europe 2/

Inevitable claim and counter-claim about last night's Iranian missile attack on Israel, so what can we learn? The IDF say there were 181 Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBM) launched against them, but the damage they did was limited 1/

https://x.com/IRNA_1313/status/1841174205637017764

Targeting was mainly against air bases +the Mossad HQ N of Tel Aviv. The latest type of MRBM have manoeuvring reentry vehicles, so many of them seem to have got thru Israeli defences. But against a target like those airfields, with bunkers + hardened shelters damage was ltd 2/

Having hung up my hat after 35 years at the BBC here’s 10 reflections … 🧵

1. Truth
Excavate it, tell it like it is, that’s our purpose. But notions of truth are fragmenting. Taking the route of partisan journalism may be easier, but it’s not for me

It’s time to hand in my body armour after 30+ years covering conflict for the BBC. How have our ways of surviving on the battlefield evolved? Here’s a bumper 🧵 1991 Gulf War: we are wearing chemical warfare suits & body armour that just protects against shrapnel. As we were 10km *ahead* of coalition lines here, having snuck through checkpoints, I took stuff off my top half so only my grey shirt was visible on camera

Along with money and weapons, fresh soldiers are essential for Ukraine to keep fighting. The army asked for 500k to be called up, but has been wrangling for weeks with the president & parliament over the numbers + means of raising them. We've been in Ukraine investigating 1/ One ex official told us off camera 'we have a serious problem, if we don't solve it we're dead'. In an interview for our @BBCNewsnight report MP @Bobrovska_MP told us 'no one is confident' that the army will get its recruits in big enough numbers. So what's going on? 2/

So far, Hezbollah, the shiite Lebanese military force, has limited its fighting with Israel, but the risks are rising. Some have speculated they will attack if Israel moves ground troops into Gaza, others that Israel itself might initiate it. Either way its very serious 1/ Israeli paper @maariv reported today that the IDF is stepping up preparations for a full scale fight with Hezbollah. And it's evident that they are on high alert in northern Israel 2/

https://twitter.com/MaarivOnline/status/1715728759033147498

Latest video from Russian sources shows a Ukrainian column that seems to have come to grief in a minefield - the Bradley’s tracks have been blown off and a mine clearing tank is also in shot #counteroffensive 1/ The idea that Ukraine is still just conducting ‘probing attacks’ and hasn’t yet started the ‘full scale’ #counteroffensive is not credible. Leopard 2A6 and Bradley is main effort stuff 2/

A big moment in the war, many advantages on Ukraine's side:
- they are smart & motivated
- this started weeks ago with shaping ops against RU logistic +symbolic targets
- Nato/US gives the best possible intel on RU weak points
- UA has held 12 brigades (c40k tps) for this 1/ It's too early to be sure about the key axes of Ukrainian ground attacks, they are currently probing and have many options:
- eastwards into the Donbas
- south from Zaporizhzhia towards the Sea of Azov
- south from Kherson to Crimea
- to expand the Belgorod incursion in RU 2/

The most important single factor in feeding the Ukraine war is the supply of artillery ammunition (nb 152mm and 122mm for RU, those plus 155mm and 105mm for UA). I am now thinking Ukraine will get what it needs. The figures are mind boggling... 1/ In the run up to EU meetings this week @oleksiireznikov told European ministers Ukraine needs 350,000 rounds a month to sustain operations, of which 120k are rounds of 155mm needed for western supplied artillery (1.44m a year). Without that things slow right down. Now we know 2/

So Putin's mobilisation is underway - and it's a major change in this conflict, so it merits a thread 👇. A lot of the social media coverage focuses on the tragicomic aspects - drunkenness, the wrong people getting called up, you name it 1/

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1573328142563168263?s=20&t=qtA_fzt1ohV9kn1hzXjM8A

Many bloggers point out it marks the abandonment of Putin's social contract with Russians that if they stay out of politics, they'll be left alone. Evidently there's every possibility the mobilisation order sparking disorder, even resistance 2/

https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1573647765082628096

Of the many variables at play on the Ukrainian battlefield, could it be that the side that runs low on artillery ammunition first will have to sue for peace? This gained greater prominence after the UA general staff suggested they were in difficulties 1/ theguardian.com/world/2022/jun… There's been some push back of late to this idea, with suggestions that the Ukrainian shortages have been rectified 2/

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1538883924687933440

It seems the sting of defeat, at least in the first phase of their operation, has registered with Russian elite opinion. It is producing fear & loathing, so it would be unwise to assume that it will either undermine Putin or strengthen peace hopes. A thread ... 1/ Some of the reaction like the ideologist Timofei Sergeitsev on RIA-Novosti translated here by @francska1 has adopted genocidal rhetoric and suggested the erasure of Ukrainian identity 2/

I've had an uneasy feeling this week with this discussion about chemical weapons and possible Nato responses. So here's a thread. The US has been suggesting for some time now that Putin might be considering using CW in Ukraine. But what capability does Russia have? 1/ We know from the Skripal and Navalny poisonings that Russia retained Novichok type agents in small quantities, possibly made to order in military & FSB labs but certainly not the hundreds of kilos or indeed tonnes you'd need for battlefield use in air dropped bombs or rockets 2/

Russia's main objective now is securing the Donbas, says Gen Sergei Rudskoy, operations chief of the general staff. Quite an important interview, combining a mixture of insight & post-rationalisation of the campaign's failures interfax-russia.ru/main/genshtab-… He says that while an assault on Kharkiv or Kyiv can't be ruled out, it's now about securing Donbas. Ops during the last two weeks appear to confirm this - big efforts to take Mariupol + some areas north of there, not much movement NW of Kyiv or near Kharkiv

The Pentagon judges that 90% of the Russian force concentrated on Ukraine's borders ten days ago has now entered the country. The first phase of their operation has happened and they are stalled. So what do they do now? 1/ There are clearly efforts going on to scrape up more combat units from Russian garrisons, and we've seen footage of kit moving west, but the invasion force already used most of their regular battalion combat groups, there's not so much left. So... 2/

Some Russian observers have mentioned that Putin may be planning to pattern operations closely on Nato's 1999 campaign against Yugoslavia over Kosovo. Early steps seem to confirm this: Putin's use of 'genocide' + the creation of a 'refugee crisis' by removing Donbas citizens 1/ If Russia goes for this Nato 'Kosplay' we can expect strikes throughout Ukraine as an instrument of coercion, thus Biden suggestion on Friday that RU would 'strike' Kyiv (not drive there), may mirror Nato actions against Belgrade + infrastructure targets like Novi Sad bridge 2/

It's not entirely clear Prez Putin knows how to proceed now, having created a crisis, assuming his objective is to topple Ukrainian govt &/or gain compliance to RU demands of neutrality.Recognising the breakaway Donbas republics could be next step 1/ themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/18/kre… Recognising the separatist republics allows for the type of Kremlin legal gymnastics we've seen in some previous crises: leaders of republics invite in Russian army to protect them, RU govt then argues it's not 'an invasion of Ukraine' but response to invitation. Such a step...2/

We are at one minute to midnight now in this Ukraine crisis. The failure of Ukraine/Russia talks in Berlin yesterday creates deep instability. Without a hope if further progress Russian separatists in E. Ukraine may declare independence 1/ If Minsk agreement peace process is dead, the breakaway Luhansk & Donetsk authorities may invite the Russian army in to protect them. Ukraine, having ignored French, German & US calls for implementation of Minsk will be isolated, nb if Russian forces stay inside those 2 areas 2/

To say there's a choice of conflict or negotiation is to miss the reality of the Ukraine crisis: we are now in a phase of what we might call coercive diplomacy. Talk, troop movements, and quite possibly force, will be mixed from here on. How so? 1/ US & Nato answered Russia's recent 'security demands' with proposals for arms control + transparency. Ukraine returned to peace talks dormant since 2019. Putin banked these gains, but on Tuesday countered 'fundamental Russian concerns were ignored', coercive diplomacy began 2/

You'd think that having mentored, trained, & helped pay for the Afghan mobile phone+ internet surveillance system, the UK would want to limit its use by the Taliban +save those it trained. But in a special report @BBCNewsnight members of that unit allege they've been abandoned 1/ This story concerns the D011 section of the National Directorate Security (NDS) set up with UK assistance in 2009 it grew to 250+ members. The UK recognised the risk to its staff, calling around 25 to Kabul airport for evacuation. But many times that number were left behind 2/