Anyone who expected a Ukrainian counter-offensive against positions Russia has had a year to fortify not to experience heavy losses is a fool.
Several Leopard 2s and Bradley IFVs have been lost in the last few days, and we will see many more before the end of the operation.
This does not mean however that the counter-offensive has failed. This will be one of, if not the toughest operation of the war and can be expected to take weeks if not months.
Some people have been building this counter-offensive up to be several hour affair that at worst results in a handful of Ukrainian casualties.
Realistically the coming weeks will see thousands of Ukrainian casualties as the Russian lines are worn down and hopefully breached.
Russia still has artillery superiority along much of the frontline, which when combined with fortifications, drones minefields create situations where vehicles get disabled and then hit by artillery.
A mobile Leopard 2A6 is deadly, a detracked one is a sitting duck.
The Venn diagram of people who thought a Ukrainian counter-offensive would be a lossless affair and people who insist every explosion is secret Ukrainian ATACMS is just a circle.
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After initially losing 4 M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA IFVs, 1 Leopard 2A6 and a BMR-2 armored demining vehicle in one location, 4 more M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA IFVs drove to the exact same position and started taking loses.
The initial loses are pictured here after the vehicles seemingly hit a minefield disabling and detracking them.
Mines, ATGMs and FPV drones disabling vehicles are going to be a massive problem for Ukraine, just as they have previously proven to be for Russia.
This video was filmed at the newly erected apartment blocks that Putin visited in March. Whatever was hit was located not far north of Mariupol airport.
🧵Russian May 9th Parade 2023 vehicle composition thread. Now we finally get to compare this year's parade to the previous years'.
This year I have not seen an official lineup released for the first time.
Last year 131 vehicles took part, down from over 200 the previous years
I am expecting under 100 vehicles, with a distinct lack of MBTs compared to other years. Overall numbers will be pumped up by an increase in Tigr-Ms and similar.
First we have to get wait for the troops to leave Red Square before the vehicles come through.
Russia's official reaction to the SS-750 story can be summed up as "Nuh-uh", as they simply claim that it is impossible for the SS-750 to have been near the Nord Stream site prior to the explosions.
🧵In a press briefing, Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova came out with the weakest denial of Russian involvement in the Nord Stream sabotage that I have ever seen.
Instead of making an excuse for the SS-750 and other vessels by claiming that they were a part of the exercises and these took place near Bornholm, the Russian MFA instead denies that the SS-750 could have been anywhere near the site, claiming it is impossible.
We have mountains of evidence that Russian naval vessels operated near the the Nord Stream explosion site in the days prior to the blasts.
The exercises, specific ships involved those exercises and the locations of those were noted in the research.