Oliver Alexander Profile picture
Jun 9 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Hard to say anything positive about this.

After initially losing 4 M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA IFVs, 1 Leopard 2A6 and a BMR-2 armored demining vehicle in one location, 4 more M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA IFVs drove to the exact same position and started taking loses.
The initial loses are pictured here after the vehicles seemingly hit a minefield disabling and detracking them. Image
Mines, ATGMs and FPV drones disabling vehicles are going to be a massive problem for Ukraine, just as they have previously proven to be for Russia.
The extra Bradley IFVs came after the initial vehicles were disabled as you can see a new track running parallel that is not visible in the initial images. ImageImage
The amount of Russian drone footage we are getting from this area of the front also indicates a pretty significant issue with SHORAD and EW assets in this particular area of the the counter-offensive.

Hopefully the areas we aren't seeing are having more success.

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More from @OAlexanderDK

Jun 9
Anyone who expected a Ukrainian counter-offensive against positions Russia has had a year to fortify not to experience heavy losses is a fool.

Several Leopard 2s and Bradley IFVs have been lost in the last few days, and we will see many more before the end of the operation.
This does not mean however that the counter-offensive has failed. This will be one of, if not the toughest operation of the war and can be expected to take weeks if not months.
Some people have been building this counter-offensive up to be several hour affair that at worst results in a handful of Ukrainian casualties.

Realistically the coming weeks will see thousands of Ukrainian casualties as the Russian lines are worn down and hopefully breached.
Read 5 tweets
May 19
This video was filmed at the newly erected apartment blocks that Putin visited in March. Whatever was hit was located not far north of Mariupol airport. ImageImage
Video of Putin visiting the same apartment blocks in March.

With the view from the second video of the blast, it seems highly likely that this is the location hit.
ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
May 9
🧵Russian May 9th Parade 2023 vehicle composition thread. Now we finally get to compare this year's parade to the previous years'.

This year I have not seen an official lineup released for the first time.

Last year 131 vehicles took part, down from over 200 the previous years ImageImageImage
I am expecting under 100 vehicles, with a distinct lack of MBTs compared to other years. Overall numbers will be pumped up by an increase in Tigr-Ms and similar.
First we have to get wait for the troops to leave Red Square before the vehicles come through. Image
Read 17 tweets
May 9
Russia's official reaction to the SS-750 story can be summed up as "Nuh-uh", as they simply claim that it is impossible for the SS-750 to have been near the Nord Stream site prior to the explosions.

oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/official-rus…
Additional research has been able to account for all Russian Baltic Sea Fleet submarines during the SS-750's activities on the 21-22nd September.

The Ufa (B-588) however has a over week where it is unaccounted for after a 100m dive test on the 6-8th September. Image
This dive test coincides with the period of time where the Minerva Julie started loitering above the Nord Stream sabotage site.

The Ufa (B-588) would return to St. Petersburg on the 17th September, one week after the other vessels involved in the test. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 8
🧵In a press briefing, Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova came out with the weakest denial of Russian involvement in the Nord Stream sabotage that I have ever seen.
Instead of making an excuse for the SS-750 and other vessels by claiming that they were a part of the exercises and these took place near Bornholm, the Russian MFA instead denies that the SS-750 could have been anywhere near the site, claiming it is impossible.
We have mountains of evidence that Russian naval vessels operated near the the Nord Stream explosion site in the days prior to the blasts.

The exercises, specific ships involved those exercises and the locations of those were noted in the research.

oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/osint-analys…
Read 5 tweets
Apr 26
Shit like this is specifically why Twitter used to have the verification system in place.
There was a reason that actual news organizations were verified and everyone didn't just get a stupid blue checkmark because they paid $8.

At least our browser extension still allows you to tell which news organizations were previously verified.

github.com/roberrrt-s/leg… ImageImage
The Turkish "Presidential Directorate of Communications Center for Combating Disinformation" states the following:

"The allegations that President Erdogan had a heart attack and was hospitalized are not true"

Read 5 tweets

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