1/ Russia's still-ongoing mobilisation effort is steadily widening in scope. With casualties in Ukraine mounting, the Russian government, parliament, and courts are removing an increasing number of exemptions. This will enable more and more men to be mobilised. ⬇️
2/ In the past month alone, the 'We can explain' (MO) Telegram channel points out, State Duma members "have passed a number of bills that suggest the government plans to mobilise as many people as possible." These include:
3/🔺 Removal of exemptions even for those who are sick, disabled, and those who are 65 years old
🔺 Permitting the Russsian army to recruit even convicted of serious crimes
🔺 Removing exemptions for scientists and people with degrees
4/🔺 A Russian Supreme Court ruling has also banned those eligible for mobilisation from travelling abroad.
MO suggests that these may be signs of a forthcoming second wave of mobilisation.
5/ However, it's equally if not more likely that the Russian government is simply pursuing a "stealth mobilisation" strategy in which the existing mobilisation continues but gets steadily broader in scope, gathering up men who would previously have been exempted. /end
1/ Bird strikes at Russian airports have increased massively in the first five months of 2023, according to the Federal Air Transport Agency. Instead of being a sign that Russia's birds are going on the attack, it's more likely due to a collapse of airport safety standards. ⬇️
2/ Alexander Neradko, the head of Rosaviatsia, has sent a letter to the agency's regional heads and aviation firms to warn them of "serious problems in the work of airports and airlines". He says that Russian aircraft have become 82% more likely to collide with birds.
3/ Civil aviation organisations have recorded 31 such strikes between 1 January and 31 May 2023, compared to 17 in the same period of 2022. Reported strikes or near-strikes, which have not led to injuries, increased by 7% - to 224 cases - for the first five months of 2023.
A very striking comparison of how the Kakhovka reservoir looked before and after the dam breach. As of 10 June, 62% of the dam's water volume is reported to have escaped, with the water level down to 11m. It's continuing to fall by 1m per day and is expected to stabilise at 3m.
Addendum: the volume of water released by the dam's collapse so far is likely to be in the region of 22.5 to 25 cubic kilometres, or equivalent to 6.5 trillion US gallons / 25 trillion litres.
1/ Pacifism is a heresy, according to a new ruling by an ecclesiastical court of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC). The ruling, said to have been directed personally by Patriarch Kirill, has been made against an anti-war priest who was convicted and fined for advocating peace. ⬇️
2/ The ruling has been made against John Burdin, the rector of the Church of the Resurrection of Christ in the village of Karabanovo near Kostroma in western Russia.
3/ The ruling states that "the pacifism with which priest Burdin tries to shield himself from accusations against him is not compatible with the actual teachings of the Orthodox Church, in particular as set out in the 'Fundamentals of the Social Concept'.
1/ To cheer up the inhabitants of Mariupol and take their minds off having to live in a destroyed city with few functioning public services, Russia has sent them a circus with a troupe of performing beavers. ⬇️
2/ The "Typical Donetsk" Telegram channel reports that Mariupol's first circus since the start of the war opened today, 10 June, and is due to run until 20 August. It was opened by animal trainer Edgar Zapashny and the head of the Russian State Circus, Sergei Belyakov.
3/ Belyakov highlighted one of the circus's star acts – "the world's only attraction with trained beavers". The beavers jump hurdles (badly), swing on a trapeze and descend a slide.
1/ Russian defence workers say they are facing a chronic shortage of electronic components, leading to them reusing old components, 'cannibalising' them from other devices and increasingly using unreliable Chinese substitutes. ⬇️
2/ Polygon Media has interviewed a number of people working for the Russian defence industry. One man, 'Matvey', works at the Vector plant in Yekaterinburg – part of the giant Almaz-Antey industrial concern. He says military work has entirely taken over the plant's production.
3/ Working conditions have deteriorated since the war began. There are now frequent security checks and workers are not allowed to take mobile phones into the plant. Employee benefits such as kindergarten vouchers are no longer available due to a shortage of funding.
1/ The destruction of the Kakhovka dam will cause calamitous economic, social and humanitarian impacts across southern Ukraine, including the loss of much of the region's agriculture, industry and the drinking water of hundreds of thousands of people. ⬇️
2/ Ihor Pylypenko, the Dean of Kherson State University's Faculty of Biology, Geography and Ecology, has given an interview setting out the likely impacts of the dam's destruction. He's previously written about the risks in the German journal 'Osteuropa'.
3/ Pylypenko notes that the dam was toppled at the worst possible time – just before midsummer and when the Kakhovka reservoir was at a near-record high. Its destruction now is peculiarly self-defeating given that the flooding affects the Russian-held side particularly badly.