Thread by @secretsqrl123

just got off the phone and computer with 2 trusted former intel people. some of the take aways we got that we can openly talk about (that is known) is that as predicted ukr is not pushing for a single deep thrust as much as a thrust along the entire line.

we are tracking 3-4 thrusts with more probably coming. this will force ru to use up or shift forces to block all the thrusts. with ukraine probably to launch more than 25 major thrusts in the next few days. this will force ru to block every one or they may have a breakthrough. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

every time ru blocks a thrust they have to bring res forces out of hiding, or from the deep reat and bring them in rang of ukr 155mm guns or himars. once the res forces are used and no more mobile blocking forces are left then the real fun should start.

also the russians will have to use every bit of its artillery. this means that ru and ukr artillery will be going after each other in the open.. and ru guns that are shot out, with less accuracy, less range, and less mobility will probably pay a heavy price.

ukr STILL has the ability for at least 2 brigade sized water crossings, and a brigade sized air assault with about 100 helos with supporting deep artillery to tie down more units.

it looks overall like ru troops (from reports and vid) are starting to break and run. without artillery or armor support facing ukr troops that want payback i cant see russian troops standing their ground. once panic starts its going to be the Crimea 500 IMO.
and yes there will… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

again nothing opsec related. have faith, it looks like there is a plan. and from reports its working..
the russians can only keep showing the bradley pile so long... sooner or later they will run out of ... everything.