Thread by @anders_aslund

Putin's many weaknesses as a ruler is now becoming evident. The truth about Putin is that he has had tremendous luck, but not been particularly able. He has thrived on loyalty & slow deliberate decision-making, But now his many shortfalls are becoming costly.

1. Putin has never broadened his expert base but stuck to his old chums from the KGB in St. Petersburg & Dresden & St. Petersburg technocrats. How can anybody serious listen to Patrushev & the Kovalchuk brothers?

2. Putin has all along refused to rely on any other sources of information than his own intelligence agencies - FSB, FSO & SVR, perhaps GRU. In his big media events, he has repeatedly shown that he believes in conspiracy theories. He insists on being poorly informed.

3. Putin has never decided fast. He has taken his time, but then he had that option. That is hardly the case in the current war. He has never been a crisis manager & he is not going to become one. This might be one reason why all decisions are late & inconsistent.

4. Putin is a micromanager & overcentralizer. He has persistently shown that he has gone far too deeply into details. Much of the failure of the war in Ukraine seems to have been caused by Putin insisting on deciding far too much himself, just like Hitler in World War II.

5. Putin has systematically destroyed Russia's state institutions & imposed extreme repression. One consequence is that his rule has very little capacity to receive & utilize negative feedback. As a consequence, neither he nor his administration learn much from their mistakes.

6. Putin has all along been deeply involved in organized crime & kleptocracy. As a result of his far-reaching criminalization, the Russian state has rotted from within. It can neither run things, nor produce things.

7. Putin is unable to fire anybody because of their incompetence. The only crime he recognizes is disloyalty. Outstanding examples are Miller at Gazprom & Chemezov at Rostec, but also Shoigu & Gerasimov & all the other generals. At best they are circulated.

8. To sum up, Putin appears almost a guarantee that Russia will lose the war Ukraine as badly as it did at the outset. Putin has eaten up the laid table that Yeltsin & his reformers served him in 1999. Now, Putin's many sins are likely to punish him.