Clément Molin Profile picture
Jun 11, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
#ukrainecounteroffensive
Comme publié sur le Think Tank, voici ma recherche sur la position des Brigades Mécanisées Ukrainiennes.

Les Brigades anciennes sont réparties sur le front, tandis que parmi les 12 nouvelles, seulement 3 ont été identifiées sur le front.

🧵THREAD🧵
1/7 Image
Lors des deux dernières contre-offensive, les Brigades mécanisées composées de T64, T72 et des premiers véhicules blindés occidentaux ont joués un rôle crucial pour percer le front à Dudchany (Kherson) et Balaklya (Kharkiv). Image
Sans prendre en compte les Forces Spéciales, les Bataillions indépendants, les Brigades Jager, les Brigades Blindés, celles d'artillerie, de montagne, de marine ou d'assaut aérien, qui ont aussi leur rôle, j'ai mis au point une carte avec les positions relativement récente des BM
Front Louhansk, il y en a 3 face à Svatove
-14ème
-88ème (pas confirmé)
-92ème

Puis 2 autres plus au Sud
-66ème
-63ème Image
Front Donbass:
1 à Siversk (54ème)
3 à Bakhmout et sur les flancs:
-30ème
-67ème
-87ème
2 sur le flanc sud, face à Horlivka
-28ème
-24ème
2 à Avdiivka :
-110 ème
-53ème Image
Sur le front de Zaporijia, la concentration tend à augmenter, avec l'arrivée semble-t-il de la 23ème à V. Novosilka, et le déploiement de 3 nouvelles Brigades formées récemment:
-31ème
-47ème
-33ème
En plus de la 65ème (Orikhiv) et de la 72ème (Voulhedar) Image
Enfin, il reste donc 9 Brigades toujours dans un lieu non connues qui feront la contre-offensive, leur déploiement à un endroit ou un autre sera crucial.

Il est en effet possible que les 3 déployées à Zaporijia soient des leurres pour que les 9 autres aillent ailleurs… Image

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More from @clement_molin

May 26
This morning, a continuous fid a videos from key roads in russian 🇷🇺 occupied territories allowed a large number of new geolocations.

I have now mapped 125 trucks hit on key roads, mostly in may, with more than 80 destroyed.

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️ Image
I geolocated two additionnal burned trucks north of Berdiansk :

46.866328, 36.760171

(red part is visible on more recent satellite images)

Image
Image
This video from this morning on the Mariupol-Melitopol road shows 4 vehicles on fire in the middle of the road after a strike.

Geoloc :
Read 8 tweets
May 25
Across the weekend, Ukraine 🇺🇦 continued to harass Russian 🇷🇺 logistics routes along the Azov Sea and in Donetsk

Ukrainian strikes are beginning to pose a problem for Moscow, whose advance on the front has slowed this year.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
This morning, @azov_media published a second video of their strikes around Mariupol, this time hitting around 20 military and fuel trucks between Mariupol and the russian border.

On this important road, I have now mapped more than 23 hits (some trucks are confirmed as destroyed by ground videos showing destroyed vehicles) with Hornet drones on russian logistics.

Geolocations sources are here :
🔹x.com/moklasen/statu…
🔹x.com/99Dominik_/sta…
🔹My own geos : x.com/clement_molin/…
🔹+ some more guesses I added on the map based on Azov map shared at the beginning of the video.
Read 15 tweets
May 23
New Map Update 🇺🇦/🇷🇺 💥

I updated the map of ukrainian middle strikes against trucks with some new geolocations and informations published today.

I have now ~15 confirmed hits on the Rostov-Crimea road and 30 confirmed hits on the Mariupol-Donetsk road + Donetsk ring. ⬇️ Image
For now, we have mainly videos from these two roads. I've tryed to geolocate some videos from supply roads leading to Donetsk, but it's much more difficult, especially due to the quality of the images.

This video is useful, because they put the area hit:

Yesterday's geolocations come from here : multiple geolocators + my own geolocations :

Read 5 tweets
May 23
In the Sloviansk direction, Russia 🇷🇺 launched 800 airstrikes this month in two directions, preparing the terrain for a larger offensive.

At the same time, Ukraine's third Azov Corps launched the first counter-attacks to cut the Lyman salient.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️Image
Few days ago, I posted an update on the Oskil front situation, depicting the most important assault roads used by russian troops.

On this update, you could see two ukrainian drone strikes located by @giK1893 in Pryshyb and Tetianivka, behind the Donets river. Image
This river is very important, it was the main ukrainian defensive line in the region in 2022, it's covered by massive forests and directly protecting cities like Izium or Sloviansk.

For 3 years, the russians are trying to reach it, behind the town of Lyman. Image
Read 16 tweets
May 22
Situation préoccupante à l'ouest d'Houlialpole dans le sud de l'Ukraine, où la Russie a lancé plus de 1 000 frappes aériennes ces 20 derniers jours.

La précision des frappes, environ 80%, et leur localisation montrent que l'armée russe met d'importants moyens dans la région. ⬇️ Image
A titre de comparaison, voici les frappes aériennes durant le mois d'avril dans la zone : Image
Et celles en février/mars :

On remarque bien le déplacement vers l'ouest. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 22
Russia 🇷🇺 is shutting the Rostov-Crimea road for civilian traffic after multiple ukrainian 🇺🇦 strikes hit this critical road

More strikes are also hitting the Mariupol-Donetsk highway. Right now, all the land corridor to Crimea is threatened.

🧵THREAD🧵1/10 ⬇️ Image
This map is made thanks to multiple geolocations from : @99Dominik_ @blinzka @carse_n @dmitrij46839 @federicoborsar1 @franfran2424 @GarbuzYe @hochu_dodomu @klinger66 @Kukulkan415 @MaxximOSINT @moklasen @neonhandrail @AndrewPerpetua @NotWoofers @tom_bike @VyshnyaOstap (among others) and my own geolocations.

I have a total of 73 trucks hit since march, but I believe this is barely 20% of the real numbers, since most of the results are not filmed and multiple videos cannot be geolocalized.
More and more videos from southern Ukraine are showing the results of Ukraine's middle strikes, mainly done with Hornet drones as well as long range FPV drones, which can now reach 50 km.
Read 10 tweets

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