Clément Molin Profile picture
Jun 11, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
#ukrainecounteroffensive
Comme publié sur le Think Tank, voici ma recherche sur la position des Brigades Mécanisées Ukrainiennes.

Les Brigades anciennes sont réparties sur le front, tandis que parmi les 12 nouvelles, seulement 3 ont été identifiées sur le front.

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Lors des deux dernières contre-offensive, les Brigades mécanisées composées de T64, T72 et des premiers véhicules blindés occidentaux ont joués un rôle crucial pour percer le front à Dudchany (Kherson) et Balaklya (Kharkiv). Image
Sans prendre en compte les Forces Spéciales, les Bataillions indépendants, les Brigades Jager, les Brigades Blindés, celles d'artillerie, de montagne, de marine ou d'assaut aérien, qui ont aussi leur rôle, j'ai mis au point une carte avec les positions relativement récente des BM
Front Louhansk, il y en a 3 face à Svatove
-14ème
-88ème (pas confirmé)
-92ème

Puis 2 autres plus au Sud
-66ème
-63ème Image
Front Donbass:
1 à Siversk (54ème)
3 à Bakhmout et sur les flancs:
-30ème
-67ème
-87ème
2 sur le flanc sud, face à Horlivka
-28ème
-24ème
2 à Avdiivka :
-110 ème
-53ème Image
Sur le front de Zaporijia, la concentration tend à augmenter, avec l'arrivée semble-t-il de la 23ème à V. Novosilka, et le déploiement de 3 nouvelles Brigades formées récemment:
-31ème
-47ème
-33ème
En plus de la 65ème (Orikhiv) et de la 72ème (Voulhedar) Image
Enfin, il reste donc 9 Brigades toujours dans un lieu non connues qui feront la contre-offensive, leur déploiement à un endroit ou un autre sera crucial.

Il est en effet possible que les 3 déployées à Zaporijia soient des leurres pour que les 9 autres aillent ailleurs… Image

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More from @clement_molin

Apr 2
The Third Gulf War 🇮🇱🇺🇸/🇮🇷 started 1 month ago

In total, the US and Israel launched more than 26 000 munitions, while Iran retaliated with 1 725 missiles and 4 445 drones.

Here is everything you need to know about the situation in the Middle East :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
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I continued to map US and Israeli strikes against Iran.

In total, more than 26 000 munitions have been used as per official records, mainly hitting western and southern Iran, as well as the main cities. Image
Strikes against Iranian leadership :

The IRCG leadership has been hitten the most, while the political figures remained less exposed. Most Iranians linked to the high security and intelligence leadership are now dead. Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 1
Despite the smallest progress in 2 years, Russia 🇷🇺 launched a record number of airstrikes, long range drone strikes as well as drone and artillery shelling

These statistics clearly show Russia is preparing a spring offensive in Ukraine 🇺🇦

🧵THREAD🧵1/7 ⬇️ Image
This month of march 2026 saw the smallest territorial progression of russian forces in Ukraine since april 2024.

As you can see, the progress is usually increasing in the spring and summer and decreasing for the winter. (There is a hole in summer 2025) Image
However, this month was also the one with the biggest amount of all kind of strikes on Ukraine. Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 30
Pourquoi la contre-offensive ukrainienne 🇺🇦 de 2023 a-t-elle échoué ? Qui est le responsable de cet échec, Zelensky ou Zaloujny ?

Cette offensive qui n'a rien achevé porte une responsabilité partagée, ses stigmates sont aujourd'hui encore visibles.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️ Image
L'échec de l'offensive du sud en 2023 est avant tout l'échec de Volodimir Zelensky.

C'est lui et le pouvoir politique qui portent une grande part de responsabilité, en ayant voulu contredire ce que prévoyait le commandement militaire. Image
Le plan Zelensky :

▫️Contre-attaquer à Bakhmout
▫️Répartir ses troupes sur la ligne de front
▫️Attaquer à plusieurs endroits en même temps pour espérer un effondrement russe Image
Read 18 tweets
Mar 29
I now mapped 350 (!) ukrainian 🇺🇦 long range drone strikes into russian 🇷🇺 occupied territory

🔹19 strikes against air-defense
🔹25 strikes against radar
🔹21 strikes against planes
🔹10 strikes against trains
🔹9 strikes against rocket/missile launchers

🧵THREAD🧵1/8 ⬇️ Image
Thanks to the very good job done by @UAControlMap and @UkraineDailyUpd gathering data from geolocators like @99Dominik_ @moklasen @giK1893 and others...

I gathered all those long range strikes into occupied territory since the year started :
In total, 350 strikes, of which 260 strikes against warehouse, antennas, electric transformers and various unknown targets, a lot of which are houses and buildings that can eventually be filled with high value targets. Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 28
Quelques images satellites 📸 de villages/villes ukrainiens 🇺🇦 détruits par l'armée russe 🇷🇺 qui souhaite "libérer" l'Ukraine :

De nouvelles images satellites de 2025 révèlent l'état de destruction des villages/villes pris par la Russie ces dernières années.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
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Yeline, oblast de Tchernihiv (nord), 500km du front actif.

Taux de destruction : 100% Image
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Andriivka, oblast de Soumy, à 5km de la frontière russe, désormais occupé.

Taux de destruction : 100% Image
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Read 15 tweets
Mar 27
Dams and bridge targeted, drone recon, airstrike campaign, mechanized assault, Russia 🇷🇺 is slowly starting its Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive

I mapped more than 4 000 airstrikes from the Donets river to Hulialpole this winter and analysed the troops movements :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
For now more than 3 years, Russia has been preparing the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk battle.

It was the objective on defeating the Bakhmut-Soledar-Siversk line in 2023, it was the objective during the Donetsk suburbs battle (2024) and the Pokrovsk battle (2025). Image
For 2026, Russia hopes to make strategic advances to the twin cities, from the north (which implies securing Lyman), the south (implies securing Kostiantynivka, Drujkivka and Dobropilla) and the east.

This is exactly what the data I collected is showing : Image
Read 20 tweets

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