Clément Molin Profile picture
Jun 11, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
#ukrainecounteroffensive
Comme publié sur le Think Tank, voici ma recherche sur la position des Brigades Mécanisées Ukrainiennes.

Les Brigades anciennes sont réparties sur le front, tandis que parmi les 12 nouvelles, seulement 3 ont été identifiées sur le front.

🧵THREAD🧵
1/7 Image
Lors des deux dernières contre-offensive, les Brigades mécanisées composées de T64, T72 et des premiers véhicules blindés occidentaux ont joués un rôle crucial pour percer le front à Dudchany (Kherson) et Balaklya (Kharkiv). Image
Sans prendre en compte les Forces Spéciales, les Bataillions indépendants, les Brigades Jager, les Brigades Blindés, celles d'artillerie, de montagne, de marine ou d'assaut aérien, qui ont aussi leur rôle, j'ai mis au point une carte avec les positions relativement récente des BM
Front Louhansk, il y en a 3 face à Svatove
-14ème
-88ème (pas confirmé)
-92ème

Puis 2 autres plus au Sud
-66ème
-63ème Image
Front Donbass:
1 à Siversk (54ème)
3 à Bakhmout et sur les flancs:
-30ème
-67ème
-87ème
2 sur le flanc sud, face à Horlivka
-28ème
-24ème
2 à Avdiivka :
-110 ème
-53ème Image
Sur le front de Zaporijia, la concentration tend à augmenter, avec l'arrivée semble-t-il de la 23ème à V. Novosilka, et le déploiement de 3 nouvelles Brigades formées récemment:
-31ème
-47ème
-33ème
En plus de la 65ème (Orikhiv) et de la 72ème (Voulhedar) Image
Enfin, il reste donc 9 Brigades toujours dans un lieu non connues qui feront la contre-offensive, leur déploiement à un endroit ou un autre sera crucial.

Il est en effet possible que les 3 déployées à Zaporijia soient des leurres pour que les 9 autres aillent ailleurs… Image

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More from @clement_molin

Mar 27
Dams and bridge targeted, drone recon, airstrike campaign, mechanized assault, Russia 🇷🇺 is slowly starting its Sloviansk-Kramatorsk offensive

I mapped more than 4 000 airstrikes from the Donets river to Hulialpole this winter and analysed the troops movements :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
For now more than 3 years, Russia has been preparing the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk battle.

It was the objective on defeating the Bakhmut-Soledar-Siversk line in 2023, it was the objective during the Donetsk suburbs battle (2024) and the Pokrovsk battle (2025). Image
For 2026, Russia hopes to make strategic advances to the twin cities, from the north (which implies securing Lyman), the south (implies securing Kostiantynivka, Drujkivka and Dobropilla) and the east.

This is exactly what the data I collected is showing : Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 25
40% of russian 🇷🇺 oil exports are currently stopped after Ukraine 🇺🇦 attacked the Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk crude oil ports.

At the same time, the Druzhba pipeline remains closed and multiple refineries have been hit. This is a big blow to Russia.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️Image
With the war in Iran and the closure of the Hormuz Strait, the oil and gas prices have climbed.

Russia was hoping to capitalize on the situation to sell more oil and gas at higher prices, in order to rebuild its finances.

However, Ukraine acted to stop this.
These last few days, ukrainian long range drones and missiles targeted all 3 western ports used to export crude oil.

The first one is this one, Primorsk, 900km north of Ukraine and 50km from Finland.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 23
Since the start of the year, Ukraine 🇺🇦 dug more than 1 250 km of defenses in the rear areas of the frontline

The "kill zone grid" around the New Donbas Line is quickly expanding. Here is what you need to know and a detailed geographic analysis :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
This is the small town of Shakhtarske in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

You can see one line 5km east of the town, a second one 1km east, which is a ring, going all around, protecting it on all flanks, which will allow it to be a strongpoint. Image
In the south first, you can see here the new fortifications built this year in red. Ukrainian counter-attacks near Pokrovsk'e allowed them to reorganize the defenses of Pokrovsk'e and Novomykolaivka, both of which are now fortified strongholds. Image
Read 20 tweets
Mar 22
Le mois de mars 2026 pourrait être le pire mois de progression russe 🇷🇺 en Ukraine 🇺🇦 depuis le printemps 2024.

L'accélération promise par beaucoup d'analystes depuis 3 ans n'a toujours pas eu lieu et l'armée ukrainienne tient sans l'aide américaine.

🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️ Image
Alors que le lancement des offensives de printemps de l'armée russe se fait attendre (Ocheretyne au printemps 2024 et la route Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka en 2025), l'armée russe ne montre aucun signe d'une accélération de sa progression.

Source des données : @Pouletvolant3 ⬇️
La Russie 🇷🇺 occupe :

🔹19.5% du territoire ukrainien (contre 18.12% en janvier 2023)
🔸100% de la Crimée
🔸99.67% de l’oblast de Louhansk (98.39%)
🔸79.48% de l’oblast de Donetsk (57.16%)
🔸75.45% de l'oblast de Zaporijjia (72.52%)
🔸72.11% de l’oblast de Kherson (72.08%) Image
Read 22 tweets
Mar 21
3 weeks have now passed following the start of the US 🇺🇸-Israeli 🇮🇱 operation to topple the regime in Iran 🇮🇷

🔸The Islamic regime is still holding
🔸The Hormuz Strait is closed
🔸Iran continues to retaliate
🔸No new protest in Iran
🔸US/ISR operations continue

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
Here are the main objectives of the operation:

🔸Create the conditions for regime change in Tehran
🔸Destroy Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs
🔸End attacks against the United States and Israel in the region (Iran and its proxies) Image
Here are Iran's main objectives in its retaliation:

🔸To ensure the regime's survival and elevate the dead to the status of martyrs
🔸To prevent regime change
🔸To create chaos throughout the region, thereby triggering an economic crisis that will ultimately end the war. Image
Read 21 tweets
Mar 19
Since the US 🇺🇸 - Israeli 🇮🇱 operations in Iran 🇮🇷 started, more than 15 000 aistrikes happened, half by the IDF, half by the USAF

Since the first day, I made around 10 different maps and gathered multiple others. Here, you can see two zones of strikes :

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
My very first map was made with preliminary informations, showing US/ISR strikes and Iranian retaliation on the first day. Image
Then, I started gathering the first informations from the first few days of war. You can see which areas are the most targeted in Iran at the time, mainly the big cities as well as the western part of the country. Image
Read 20 tweets

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