Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 11 7 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
This:

“ a huge drone flew into the combat vehicle, the use of which was not previously recorded .”

...sounds like an anti-radiation seeker drone like an Israeli Harpy or Hero drone or it's Azeri/Turkish knock offs.

1/
This is the Azeri version of the Hero loitering drone.

2/
And this link shows what the Harpy looks like.

3/
iai.co.il/p/harpy
Cold War era radar & missile only air defense systems are obsolescent in the face of small/low/cheap drones that can home on 24/7 radar signals.

Integrated Air Defenses require 360 degree infrared search and track simply because it doesn't emit trackable radio signals and
4/
...requires near 90 degree straight up point defense guns to deal with drones.

Missiles are simply too darned expensive for the small drone threat, even if they can operate as low as quadcopter drones, which most can't.



5/
This is the both the opportunity and danger of drone technology.

The cost barriers to entry are very low and the tech provides the kind of airpower the West has enjoyed since the early 1990's at a price non-nation state actors can afford.🤯

6/
The only place I've seen Western military thought come anywhere near the reality of what the small drone threat is what BAE Systems is doing with its CV90 infantry fighting vehicle.

See this Matsimus video on that thinking.

7/7 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 12
The Dnipro flood zone is drying out fast. 30-degrees C is about 86 degree F.⬇️

"Almost 30-degree heat returns to Ukraine: where and when it will heat up (map)"
unian.ua/pogoda/news/po…
1/3
The Kakhaovka dam breach flash flood scrubbed, Russian occupied, Dnipro bank will be dried out, with a much narrower water obstacle, in a few weeks.

And Russia has pulled all it's best troops from occupied Kherson.

2/3
AFU has 100 transport helicopters and a couple of engineer bridging brigades in it's back pocket.

The implications of all this are self-evident.

Time is not on Russia's side in Southern Ukraine.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jun 12
These things are utterly bad news, which I mentioned in an earlier thread.

The ability of a Russian drone to call down a wide area rocket artillery laid minefield is why you have seen those two Ukrainian failed breach AFV graveyards.⬇️

1/
There is no tactical counter to a Zemledeliye Mine mine-laying rocket system, if the Russians get the forward artillery observer system right.

You simply suffer more vehicle casualties until the Russian forward observers & drone operators spotting for them are dead.

2/
You can bet your bottom dollar Ukraine is doing everything to kill this Zemledeliye rocket battery using signals intelligence, counter battery radars plus drone and messing up Russian tactical radios with jamming & hacking to "Break the kill chain," to use the

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
AFU is warning Ukrainian civilians of Kakhovka dam breach spread mines.

"Sappers warned about the danger of "Lepetok" mines against the backdrop of the destruction of the Kakhovskaya HPP: They can be spread by water Джерело:"
1/
censor.net/ua/n3423896
censor.net/ua/news/342389…
"Undermining of the Kakhovskaya HPP: the flood carries anti-personnel, anti-landing and anti-tank mines, as well as a lot of ammunition, into the Black Sea - OK "Piv'd" Джерело:
censor.net/ua/n3423952"
censor.net/ua/news/342395…
2/
"In the Kherson region, enemy warehouses are rapidly destroyed by "big water" - mines are floating (video)"
unian.ua/war/na-hersons…
3/
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
Consider for a moment Ukraine has trained 10,000 drone operators.

Hundreds of them are doing this every day, remotely piloting FPV drones into Russian vehicles & soldiers.

This is the reality of 21st century drone airpower.

1/
How relevant is an F-35 fighter firing an $1 million AIM-120 or $400K AIM-9X missile to countering this aerial capability/threat?

As far as I can see, it is negative value added.

Every dollar spent on an F-35 is a dollar not spend on obtaining/counting FPV airpower.

2/
This is what a Ukrainian FPV pilot looks like.

You can train high hundreds to thousands for the budget to train a single F-35 pilot.

And FPV racing drone enthusiasts won't need any training at all.
3/

Read 6 tweets
Jun 11
This @sambendett Russian translation 🧵underlines the problems Russian soldiers & volunteers are having with the Russian military procurement system in fielding FPV drones.

The DIY racing drones turned precision guided munitions live in the blind spot of every
1/
...military procurement system in the world.

The powers that be in every such military procurement institution are the problem, not the solution, to both introducing and countering the disruptive innovation that drone technology represents to the Western way of war.

2/
Sadly, the level of deep institutional dysfunction that now inhabits military procurement institutions in the West will only be begin to be addressed - not fixed - after a very public major military defeat.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
While many have focused on the environmental and military implications of the destruction of the the Kakhovka dam.

There is another implication most have not faced.

Unexploded mines 🧵

1/
The typical metal can landmines you are seeing below tend to float on water.

The Kakhovka dam flash flood ripped the RuAF Dnipro river bank minefields apart with turbulence, dislodging those mines due to buoyancy.

2/
So aside from flotsam and dead Russian troops washing up on Dnipro river & Black Sea beaches, tens of thousands of landmines will as well.

We can expect that floating RuAF landmines will be a feature of Black Sea beaches for years to come.

3/
Read 6 tweets

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