Thread by @gcapoccia1

Death of Silvio #Berlusconi: expected after the recent hospitalization. Discussions on his role in Italian politics and his legacy will be polarized as those on his politics. But his departure opens up a phase of uncertainty in the 🇮🇹 party system. A🧵/1

Berlusconi was no longer the leader of the center-right, and his party, Forza Italia, has not been the hegemonic force right-of-center in the 🇮🇹 political spectrum for several years now. Still, FI's MPs (44 Chamber, 18 Senate) are decisive for the survival of Meloni's govt./2

Berlusconi never anointed a successor, even when it was clear that his leadership had become less effective than in the past: Fini, Casini, Fitto and others have all been internally defeated and outcast. FI lost votes and Berlusconi continued to manage it as a personal party. /3

Recently, also due to his health problems, he delegated to his personal collaborators (most recently to Marta Fascina, his partner) the internal management of the party. This power arrangement will not survive his death. /4
repubblica.it/politica/2023/…

Hence, with Berlusconi's departure, the volatility at the center of the 🇮🇹 political spectrum, already high, increases, and a period of uncertainty is likely to occur. Two opposite scenarios: /5

First, the center space is occupied by another center party that for now stays in coalition with Meloni and Salvini. This could be FI itself if it manages to elect another leader quickly (e.g. foreign minister Tajani), or another political container./6

https://twitter.com/ultimora_pol/status/1668177757547773952

In this scenario, the 🇮🇹 party system and government coalition remain essentially as they are now, with a centrist party as a junior partner (together with the Lega) of powerful Meloni's Fratelli d' Italia./7

The opposite scenario is that Berlusconi's departure spells death for his party and opens a period in which the centrist member of the government coalition does not manage to reorganize quickly. In this case, Meloni's government has a problem. /8
espresso.repubblica.it/politica/2023/…

Many FI politicians, who remained in Berlusconi's declining party due to their loyalty to (or dependence from) the leader, may defect towards Fratelli d' Italia, the most powerful member of the coalition government./9
espresso.repubblica.it/politica/2023/…

Even though it is very plausible that both Meloni and Salvini's parties, anticipating the predictable demise of Berlusconi, have been engaged in preparing the ground for FI defections to their respective parties, these may however not be enough to stabilize the coalition./10

In the short term, the situation is likely to fall between these two polar opposites: FI (as itself or transformed to something else) may continue to exist, while suffering significant defections. Meloni may have to negotiate with a much less stable center ally or allies. /11

The government may also see its majority shrink, albeit likely not by much. Some moderate FI politicians (likely a minority) may defect from the government coalition altogether. In the recent past, defections from FI have happened in both directions. /12
ilsole24ore.com/art/gelmini-la…

Centrist parties outside the government, however, have been litigious, as well as electorally unsuccessful, and have lost much of their potential attractiveness. /13
rainews.it/articoli/2023/…

Be that as it may, Berlusconi's death likely opens up a phase of additional uncertainty and volatility in 🇮🇹 politics. His personalistic power is probably one of the greatest negative legacies. It won't be easy to remedy that. /End
ansa.it/english/news/p…