Christian Breyer Profile picture
Jun 12 10 tweets 10 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ New opinion article @UniLUT & international collaborators doi.org/10.1371/journa… discusses requirement of tightening the 1.5°C climate target to avoid risk of elevating climate tipping points. A 1.0C climate target is a safer target and possible via negative emissions. Image
2/ Even the 1.5°C climate target requires about 500 GtCO2 negative emissions if fully accounting for uncertainties. Climate budget according to @IPCC_CH for reaching 1.5°C with max certainty has been used up in early 2022.
3/ Though reaching the 1.5C target seems already hard to reach, it is not a safe target for civilisation. Local extreme weather events will have global consequences risking global food security doi.org/10.1038/s41558…
4/ The instability of the Greenland & West Antarctic Ice Sheets can already be observed at currently ~1.2°C global warming. Loosing these ice sheets poses existential threat to coastal settlements and entire nation states due to significant sea level rise. doi.org/10.1038/s43247…
5/ Reducing atmospheric CO2 concentration to ~350 ppm by the end of this century may be required & climate restoration in long term. A limited overshoot beyond 1.5°C is to be kept as strictly as possible avoiding additional tipping points to be triggered. doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-…
6/ Cheap & abundantly available renewable electricity enables a paradigm shift in energy supply doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS…. Natural carbon sinks, eg reforestation, may be limited to 16 GtCO2 negative emissions p.a. while ~40 GtCO2 will be required to re-balance the climate to 1.0°C. Image
7/ Negative emission technologies powered by renewable electricity such as DACCS offer attractive and scalable options for long-term secure CO2 sequestration. First research estimates about 10% of global primary energy demand required by 2100. doi.org/10.1016/j.ener… Image
8/ In the light of opportunities arising from low-cost renewable electricity we call for a new discourse on sharpening the climate target to 1.0°C. Reaching net zero is the priority by 2050 as a fundament to build on climate restoration in the second half of this century.
9/ this opinion article is an international collaboration of @UniLUT @MCC_Berlin @efesce @thermokars @GregNemet @jlbamber @TerliWetter @c_gerhards @KeinerDominik

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More from @ChristianOnRE

Apr 4
1/ New research @UniLUT @KeinerDominik doi.org/10.1016/j.apen… investigates the role of #hydrogen in on- and off-grid residential solar PV prosumer systems as seasonal storage option in cost-optimised micro sector-coupling systems until 2050.
2/ Power, heat, transportation segments are modelled and analysed in 8 scenarios varying the availability of grid connection and cars in the system, compared to a 9th grid-only scenario. Cost-optimised solution found via linear optimisation of #LUTprosume model.
3/ Modelling of small-scale water electrolyser and fuel cell economic input data based on growth rates, learning rates and scaling of size. Capex strongly depends on device capacity and is usually high for small-scale applications.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 28
1/ New research @UniLUT on value chain options for steel industry transition in Europe doi.org/10.1016/j.ener… - Key insights: low-cost renewable electricity & green, hydrogen required. 5 value chain combinations & DE, ES, FI with supply from CL, MA analysed. Impacts expected.
2/ Three different European markets investigated - DE, FI, ES – for primary and secondary steel production. Today’s main types are BF-BOF (coal), EAF (secondary with electricity), but also DRI-EAF (hydrogen) and BOF
3/ five different supply chain combinations investigated: a) full domestic production; b) import of H2 for steelmaking (shipping, pipeline); c) import of hot briquetted iron (HBI); d) import of crude steel.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 8
1/ @UniLUT research introduces an entirely new CO2 removal concept for ambitious climate targets with diverse co-benefits for acceptable cost: nature.com/articles/s4189…. desalination-based afforestation can emerge as an important & scalable net CO2 emission option. @UpekshaCaldera
2/ the core principle of the new CO2 removal (CDR) option is to use low-cost renewable electricity, efficient seawater desalination & drop irrigation and dry areas in the global sunbelt for desalination-based afforestation. Finally, low-cost RE and efficient solutions are key.
3/ the total global potential strongly depends on the assumptions of accessible land. Land with almost no rainfall, no land-use conflicts and permanently >5C temperature & 20% land utilisation is investigated: leading to a negative CO2 potential of 730 GtCO2 in this century
Read 8 tweets
Dec 14, 2022
/1 new research @UniLUT on #100RE bibliometrics ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/99446… Key insights: 550+ articles known; research field is growing with 26%/yr in research output for more than a decade and more than 1400 authors have been involved so far. 2021 articles counted until mid-2021.
/2 Europe, the US and Australia are the global research centers for #100RE, while a huge research gap for Global South countries still limits the impact of the research findings. Research from Global South for Global South is even more limited.
/3 most applied energy system models for #100RE are EnergyPLAN (74), LUT-ESTM (63), HOMER (22), TIMES (19), PyPSA (16), LOADMATCH (10), REMix (10), GENeSYS-MOD (10) - all others are below 10 articles. Balmorel articles were detected just recently.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 6, 2022
/1 Latest @UniLUT research shows that #100RE in global power sector in 2030s is the least cost case: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…. Comparison to #WEO scenarios of #IEA and @SvenTeske /DLR scenarios. Modelling in 1-h temporal and 9 global regions resolution. Image
/2 The @UniLUT scenarios reveal that #100RE anytime in 2030s is a least cost solution. Solar PV-battery is the inner core of least cost supported by wind power and other renewables. Sector coupling was not investigated but would further reduce system cost. Image
/3 Comparison to @SvenTeske /DLR reveals an interesting societal choice: low-cost with PV-wind-battery in the core vs higher resource/technology diversity for higher cost (+10-20%). Finally, different paths lead to #100RE and societies have the choice what feature to rate higher.
Read 6 tweets

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