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David Helms Profile picture
@davidhelms570
Jun 12, 2023 • 25 tweets • 15 min read • Read on X
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1/ This thread rebuts claims made by Mikael "Vatnikersson" Valterson against @Ukrhydroenergo, saying Ukraine's state dam operator, "was the original culprit" in destroying the #KakhovkaHPP and exacerbating dam destruction flooding. A #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ As "Readers" pointed out, the video Vatnikersson used to "prove" Ukraine sent water downstream to #KakhovkaHPP was almost 2 months old. The video proves nothing. Vatnikersson made no attempt to clarify the temporal discrepancy; the tweet is still posted. ImageImage
3/ Vatnikersson made several allegations in his tweet that accused Ukraine of destroying its own dam as well as causing post-dam failure flooding. I will unpack these allegations. Image
4/ First some background: The Dnipro "Cascade" is a system of 6 dams on the Dnipro River within Ukraine. Ukraine operates the first 5 dam while Russian occupiers have "operated" the 6th and final dam on the Dnipro since 24 FEB 2022, the now destroyed #KakhovkaHPP. Image
5/ Together, 6 Dnipro Cascade dams have 18.5 cubic kilometers (km**3) of useful water storage; Kremenchuk Reservoir alone has 48.5% (8.97km**3) storage. If @Ukrhydroenergo was deliberately sending more water than normal to #KakhovkaHPP, upstream dams would be LOWER than normal. Image
6/ 50% Dnipro River annual flow occurs between April and June as winter snow melts in the upper Dnipro basin. Typically, spring peak flow provides 26.4 km**3 water. The upper 5 dams on the cascade storage is only 11.82 km**3... this means over 14 km**3 MUST FLOW to #KakhovkaHPP. Image
7/ Dealing with Vatnikersson's allegations
1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
The IG video shows Dnipro HPP discharging water. Why? Because in April the Dnipro River was in flood. That's was responsible dam operators do. Image
8/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
@Ukrhydroenergo discharged water because, in addition to snow melt, April had significant rain. How do I know? I tweeted about it at the time. Image
9/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
In the month of April 2023, the Ukrainian Hydrological Center issued river flood warnings. How do I know? I tweeted about it.
ImageImage
10/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
Even during the Dnipro peak spring flow, the 19 April 2023 video shows @Ukrhydroenergo was prudently managing the flood waters with only a fraction of sluice gates are open. Image
11/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
The attached 3 images show the storage status of 3 upstream reservoirs. If Vatnikersson was correct, the dams would be below normal water level, but all were > storage level! ImageImageImage
12/ Allegation 1.a “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”.
How do I know that @Ukrhydroenergo was holding as much water upstream as safely possible from April-June 2023? Because I tweeted about it.
Image
13/ Vatnikersson Allegation 1.a: “Ukraine keeps the gates at Dnipro HDD open (video) and the water streams southward”
@Ukrhydroenergo was professionally & responsibly managing the 5 upstream dams during 2023 spring peak flow season, what were Russian occupiers doing at K-HPP? Image
14/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know that the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Without proof, Vatnikersson provides Russian occupiers an abibi, stating RF "couldn't open the gates" at K-HPP. Let's fact check this alibi.
15/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
RF missed opportunities to divert water from Kakhovka Reservoir through:
Kherson & Zaporizhzhia Irrigation Canals
K-HPP Lock
K-HPP Turbines
K-HPP Sluice Gates Image
16/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Russian occupiers could have discharged water through the K-HPP lock, especially after the RF 11 NOV 2022 retreat, but they didn't.
Image
17/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Russian occupiers could have discharged water through Kakhovsky Main Canal which would have diverted nearly 1 km**3 water and lowered the #KakhovkaReservoir Image
18/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
... but in November 2022, the Russian occupiers bombed and flooded the KMC main pumping station creating "a disaster".
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/362… Image
19/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Russian occupiers could have discharged water through the 6 #KakhovkaHPP electric turbines ... Image
20/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
... but Russian occupiers destroyed K-HPP's ability to generate electricity. Saldo: "turbines do not produce electricity"
novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/… Image
21/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
Russian occupiers could have opened some additional K-HPP sluice gates to relieve water pressure... ImageImage
22/ Vatnikersson Allegation 3: Ukrainians “couldn't know the russians wouldn't open the gates of the Novo Kakhovka dam.”
... but Russian occupiers stopped active water management after 1 DEC 2022 for no apparent reason. RF had opened/closed sluice gates from 24 FEB to 1 DEC 2022 Image
23/ Other Vatnikersson Allegations: @Ukrhydroenergo water discharge from upstream dams after 6 JUN 2023
Ridiculous statement: RF destruction of K-HPP released over 10 km**3 of water on lower Dnipro in 1 day, orders of magnitude larger than water released in the upper cascade. Image
24/ RF occupiers filled #KakhovkaReservoir to record levels (17.5 meters) and then destroyed the #KakhovkaHPP for maximum damage. RF did this not for military advantage, but to harm Ukraine's economic viability, this was an act of economic terrorism. end/
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More from @davidhelms570

David Helms Profile picture
Jan 15, 2024
1/ Update on river ice conditions on the lower Dnipro near UAF left bank beachhead. Average temperatures in the south have fallen below 0C since 8 JAN, much below 0C after 11 JAN lowering water temps to near 0C and starting river ice growth. Image
2/ Most recent visible imagery: Sentinel-2 (9 JAN) shows dark water indicating unfrozen water w/ no snow cover. LANDSAT8 (11 JAN) shows ice formation in the larger lakes between the Antonovsky Bridges. Ice is definitely forming on the Konka River but not yet on the Dnipro River.
Image
Image
3/ Sentinel-1 SAR timeseries:
11 JAN: Rough surface ( speckled gray) on Dnipro indicates wind waves on open water
15 JAN: Dark surface with white ridges on Dnipro RIver shows new ice (nilas, 5-10 cm thick); Konka river definitely frozen.
Read 6 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
Nov 19, 2023
On 8 NOV 2023, a RF missile struck a Liberian registered commercial ship in Odesa region port. This #NAFOWeather🧵examines why the ship was in Ukrainian port, initial findings on RF weapon used, subsequent data available to confirm initial findings & impact to #UkriCor transits.
2/ Prior to the 24 FEB 2022 full-scale RF invasion, Ukraine exported enough grain to feed 400 million people, most in the famine probe Global South.
topleadprojects.com/environmental-…
Image
3/ Since 24 FEB 2022, RF has systematically attacked Ukraine's ag infrastructure, blockaged ports & seized grain in occupied areas w/ the goal of weaponizing grain to pay for its war effort, hurt Ukraine's economy & deny food to Ukraine's export partners.

Image
Read 23 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
Oct 25, 2023
1/ There has been daily reports of clashes near the Antonovsky Rail Bridge crossing of the Dnipro river between Prydniprovs'ke and Poima since 18 October 2023. A #NAFOWeather🧵on the Dnipro wetland ground conditions supporting offensive operations.
Image
2/ First, key dates in this region: Important to note that RF used this location to ferry troops and vehicles in the fall 2022 and UAF has been been attacking RF obn the left bank near the Antonovsky Bridge 6 km downstream of this location in late June 2023. Image
3/ The Dnipro river delta wetlands is about 3.9 km wide at the Antonovsky Rail Bridge crossing. The crossing includes two bridges, 0.5 km bridge (destroyed) over the Dnipro main channel and a 40 meter bridge (destroyed) over the Verkhnya Konka River. Image
Read 16 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
1/ Fall 2023 #MudSeason “bezdorizhzhia (ukr.)/rasputiza" prediction. 15 OCT 2023 Update (version 1!), a #NAFOWeather 🧵
2/ BLUF: Fall 2023 #MudSeason onset will likely be delayed a month due to lower rainfall over east & south Ukraine from AUG thru early OCT 2023. The result of rainfall deficit, along with clear skies & lower humidity increased evaporation caused lower soil moisture than normal. Image
3/ Background: This prediction uses NATO Reference Mobility Model (NRMM) derived correlation between soil moisture and soil strength. While NRMM uses multiple land surface features to develop maximum speed predictions, the most time-variant feature is soil moisture. Image
Read 14 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
Sep 22, 2023
1/ On 17 JUL, Ukrainian #USVs damaged the Kerch vehicle bridge near Tuzla Island. On 3 AUG, Tanker SIG was severely damaged by a #USV while at anchor south of the Kerch bridge. In addition to sinking barges (see below), what has RF done to protect Kerch shipping? A #NAFOWeather🧵
2/ Pictures are today's ship position (mostly at anchor south of the Kerch bridge), the right picture includes the ship track heat map from 2022. Ships that anchored west of Port Taman in 2022 are now gone.
What happened?
Image
Image
3/ Sentinel 2 True Color loop shows northern most anchorage clearing out between 21 AUG and 10 SEP.
Read 15 tweets
David Helms Profile picture
Sep 10, 2023
1/ It has been 3 months since the Russians blew-up the Kakhovka HPP dam on 6 June 2023. What is happening to the Dnipro River hydrology and ecology? What are are the options for rebuilding the HPP and possibility for a Dnipro left-bank beachhead? A #NAFOWeather 🧵
Outline: Image
2/ K-HPP Destruction Impacts:
- Irrigation/agricultural land lost: 350,000-550,000 ha
- Drinking (population 700,000) and industrial water loss
- Zaporizhzhia NPP cooling pond water supply loss
- 14,000 homes flooded, many drowned

topleadprojects.com/environmental-…
theguardian.com/world/2023/jun…

Image
Image
3/ 6-11 June Water Level Changes: Nikopol (left y-axis) and Kherson City (right y-axis) from Vyshnevskyi, et al, 2023
Immediately after the Russians blew up the K-HPP dam, the Kakhovka Reservoir water level began lowering and within 6 hours, the Kherson City water level increased Image
Read 50 tweets

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