The Honest Broker Profile picture
Jun 12 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🧵
OK, a thread titled "why do this?"

I'm reading a new paper claiming attribution of all increased burned area in CA to climate change
Turco et al in PNAS today
pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

They start their data in 1971 even though reliable data exists much earlier, so I'm curious
In the data description they use a dataset called FRAP - CalFire Fire Resource and Assessment Program

They make a point that they compared the FRAP data to data used in references 1 and 48

OK I go have a look at the SI Appendix to explore these different data wondering why 1971 Image
In ref. 48 the SI says of the data used in that paper that is also FRAP data -- it's the same data! Image
Back to the paper released today
They include a table purporting to show "correlations among different fire datasets"

The correlation is a remarkable 0.99
Why is that?
They are the same dataset!

So I'm baffled

Why do this?
Why misrepresent the data? Image
They even graph the same data as if it were additional information

Anyway, the new paper says that the only controls on area burned over 50+ years is climate change

Not fuels, land management, ignitions, suppression
Um,yeah

Anyway play games with data & you lose me as a reader Image

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

Jun 12
Andrew Dessler blocks me on Twitter
He just wrote a Substack post about my research on hurricanes

Had he not blocked me then he'd have known that he is repeating a rather large mistake by the IPCC 😎
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/a-tip-from-a…

These guys are scared to death of engaging me directly
I just left a comment at Dessler's post (screenshotted below)

I'm happy to see him engaged my peer-reviewed research and the IPCC (though he apparently is unaware of the most recent NOAA statement)

Here is his post:
theclimatebrink.substack.com/p/climate-chan… Image
I mean, why write about someone's research and do this?
What is he afraid of?
Science? Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 11
🧵
How much economic growth would be necessary for everyone to be at current Denmark per capita GDP?

According to some numbers from @MaxCRoser the global economy would have to increase by about 7.2x

Lots of assumptions but let's go with it
ourworldindata.org/poverty-minimu…
Is it even possible to increase the global economy by 7.2x?

Sure it is

That's about the amount of GDP growth from ~1960 to today, ~60 years
data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.G…
In 1960 there were 3 billion people and today there are >8 billion

That rate of growth is not expected to continue . . . Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 10
🧵
There are two systemic areas of climate misinformation that permeate the media, policy and politics

Implausible climate scenarios & climate and extreme weather

On the latter I've written 6 detailed posts on what the IPCC & official data actually say

Let's review . . .
What the media won't tell you about . . . Floods
Let's take a look at what the IPCC and recent research actually says

IPCC: No detection or attribution of trends
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-… Image
What the media won't tell you about . . . Drought in Western and Central Europe
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-…

IPCC: "in areas of Western and Central Europe and Northern Europe, there is no evidence of changes in the severity of hydrological droughts since 1950" Image
Read 9 tweets
Jun 8
🧵
on Canada wildfires, focus on Quebec
Focus on detection and attribution of trends
Not forecasts of the future

Let's start with IPCC
The IPCC does not attempt to detect or attribute trends in wildfire, instead it focuses on "fire weather" defined below
AR6 Ch.12 Image
IPCC expresses "There is medium confidence that weather conditions that promote wildfires (fire weather) have become more probable in southern Europe, northern Eurasia, the USA, and Australia over the last century"
IPCC AR6 Ch.11 Image
The IPCC also acknowledges that it is not just weather and climate that affect fire:

"human activities have become the dominant driver" of fire regimes
&
There was less "biomass burning" in the 20th century than any time in the past 2,000 years
IPCC LULUCF Ch.2 Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 7
The IPCC does not project eastern Canada to become more fire prone under any climate scenario, even RCP8.5 Image
The IPCC has only low to medium confidence in detection and attribution of trends in wildfire
Via IPCC AR6 Ch.2
ipcc.ch/site/assets/up… Image
I know it is natural for understandings to go from complex, nuanced and shades of grey to simple, certain and black & white

That's OK

But the actual science is there for anyone who wants it

Don't blame me
Blame those pesky researchers doing this excellent work 😎
Read 6 tweets
May 15
🧵The very low death toll being reported so far from Cyclone Mocha in Myanmar is part of an incredible and under-appreciated success story of science, technology, policy and implementation

A quick thread on tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal . . .
The BoB is a hotbed of tropical cyclone activity, the figure below shows 50 years of TC tracks and their landfall locations
doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr… Image
A 1970 TC killed more than 300,000 people in Bangladesh (and then, East Pakistan)
jstor.org/stable/pdf/262… Image
Read 7 tweets

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