The important outcome here, which connects to the ongoing #Ukrainiancounteroffensive (or at least its theoretical plan) is the potential reversal in water levels and river width.
The drop in water levels of Lake Kakhovka is really striking. It has in many places been reduced to
a mud flat. Here we can see how dramatic the before and after is in certain places of the Lake. Again, here we face a Russian front that is not well manned nor heavily fortified due tot he wide obstacle of the lake. Downstream of the dam, we already saw we have the opposite
effect with the Russian bank flooding including parts of the Russian first line of defense. The draining of lake and river upstream from the dam comes of course with its own ecological disaster. Interestingly, while we see and already discussed the curious water level leading up
to the collapse of the dam (record high levels, now followed of course by record lows), we see Ukraine continue to act oddly in the aftermath as far as the levels. While there were reports (that we discussed) of fully open sluice gates, which would increase flooding downstream
from the dam, now that this flooding has run its course, we have reports of the opposite. For example here the Dnipro HPP dam is almost completely closed, exasperating the water level drop in Lake Kakhovka upstream from the collapsed dam. Since mainstream journalism is dead, we
of course won't get any of those questions answered as they won't be asked to begin with. The UA command and government will not have to bother with any explanation whatsoever.
So there we have it, while I wanted to tend to believe that the collapse was a result of previous UA
fire (and the later threat of UA fire which keeps RU officials from being able to provide maintenance to the dam), and not the result of a newer deliberate act to collapse the dam now in June, the water level peculiarities alone are quite compelling. We reported and discussed
in these threads the "hoarding" of water upstream by UA authorities and the potential reasons for this, including flooding Kherson, and then the moment Lake Kakhovka held a record amount of water and the UA counteroffensive opened in earnest, there is a collapse.
Ukraine then
reportedly increases the flow of water from upstream to increase the flooding and after it has done its worse, restricts normal flow of water so that Lake Kakhovka will empty completely. Really starts to be a bit much for coincidence. Sure, the UA command may have seized the
opportunity once the collapse occurred, but then one would still wonder why they hoarded the water leading up June to begin with. And then we are left with the coincidental timing.
Due to all of this, Russian forces would be wise to closely monitor UA forces across the dying
lake, and prepare for any eventuality. If the area of the dam remains under Russian control, at one point Russia will attempt to repair the dam and return water level control capabilities. At this point doing so would be dependent on UA forces not firing on Russian crews.
I wonder how the mainstream media will report such repair efforts. Perhaps by explaining that Putin, lacking imagination, has run out of ideas of how to blow up his own infrastructure, and so has ordered the dam repaired so that gullible Russian citizens can return, rebuild &
once again be flooded when he orders the destroyed yet again.
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collapse, the river was narrow downstream of the dam, and Russian forces contended with crossing attempts by UA forces on a daily basis. They had occupied the middle islands, and with a powerful base of Kherson city itself right up to the bank, made a powerful force projection
across the bank. RU had to maintain relatively strong forces in this area. Above the dam, the river was much wider (Lake Kakhovka) and Russia thus maintained lesser positions. A look at a very rough deployment map (militaryland) shows us what I mean.
Police Sergeant Bradley T. McClure committing an unlawful arrest and subverting the US constitution on film. He can do that because he did against a white man who was expressing conservative and/or Christian beliefs.
If it wasn't on video, the small sergeant's actions would go
unnoticed and be successful. Because it is on video, (full version for those interested: ), then if enough citizens in America still care about their freedom and the rule of law, then perhaps it won't be.
Anyone who watches the full video will clearly see
that the officer lied in his Affidavit of Probable Cause.
Note that the "proud" Americans expressing opposing viewpoints (reportedly out-of-towners as is often the case) cheer at the illegal arrest of a fellow American who disagrees with them. Liberty and the health of the
Big news, massive flooding along the Dnieper in the Kherson region. Kakhovskaya HPP is severely damaged. We have discussed the strategic importance of the water level previously. Together with the much anticipated UA counteroffensive we now have this development. Some of the
earliest footage was from daybreak today. The flooding started in early dawn. Goes without saying that the mainstream media and the EU quickly blamed Russia for intentionally blowing up the damn (and called it a war crime). That the dam is Russian controlled, and that the
southern (Russian-held) bank is lower than the northern (UA-held) bank and so will suffer worse flooding does not enter in their calculations. Neither does the repeated UA strikes against the damn (which helped convince RU forces to withdraw from Kherson) in the past. Russia
advantage to Russia in the balance of forces. It is to UA's advantage to make Russia have to defend the long international border as much as any part of the front (within UA). Ironically, UA's obsessions with winning a PR war (rather than the real war on hand) limited the
strategic value of the operation in this important sense. And that is what there is to add to the discussion. UA command could not possibly have simply ordered an attack into Russia. That would have been too straightforward and honorable for them. Had they admitted to doing so,
), which was the last part of the Citadel that was left in UA hands, we can expect faster movement than has been usual for the last weeks.
This is why I commented earlier that the successful UA push by UA forces in the northern flank retaking positions along the O-0506, were not going to be significant in terms of helping the UA garrison in Bakhmut. That road was largely no longer usable, and
Now onto Bakhmut. First, a couple of days ago Wagner's head Prigozhin released an interesting video. He shows off large stocks of captured weapons (complains that the higher ups haven't been interested in it), and complains about the artillery munition supply. He jokes that
they can sell or trade these online in exchange for munitions. All sorts of theories on this, since it seems quite insubordinate, especially against the bureaucrats and Minister of Defense Shoigu. The leaked Pentagon documents mention this issue, and have been wanting to comment
on it, but no time yet. Here let us focus more on Bakhmut for now. On May 2nd-3rd all hell broke loose. While previously UA forces were barely shelling RU positions back, this changed drastically. UA forces initiated fierce counterattacks on the flanks and in NW Bakhmut to keep