Let us update the 98th Division's progress in Khan Younis. The Division is getting reinforced by forces freed from the (major) fighting in the northern strip which is nearing conclusion.

First let us compare sat images from Dec 11 and Dec 26.

1 Pair of the northern Khan Younis

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1737793045636980825

front and the other of the southern or central front. We can see the the logistic axis are being expanded by the division. The surrounded areas of Jarara are being cleared. Most importantly we see significant advances in the densest parts of the city. Bani Suheila, which serves

Investigative Committee has confirmed, through DNA results, Prigozhin's and Utkin's death (along with all 8 others on the manifest).

Likely, the pride of Russia has fallen. And its people mourn.

Russia's patriot philopsher, Alexander Dugin, told us of how his daughter Darya, murdered by a cowardly Ukrainian terrorist attack, had said of Mr. Prigozhin:

"Prigozhin is so bold, intelligent, and self-confident that surely no one prays for him, it doesn't cross anyone's mind. Let's start praying for him."

Mr. Dugin also said

For reporting beyond the sensational, a more sobering thread about Pirgozhin, with posts added since the events.
Most analysts were certain that Putin ordered the plane blown out of the sky. Many of those are the same certain that Putin ordered his Nord Stream 2 destroyed, the

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1694764128378732855

Kakhovka dam collapsed to flood his own positions, and the ZPP nuclear power plant under his control constantly shelled.
Others are eager to see a "strong" Putin that has avenged a betrayal of the sate.
Few if any have seen through the smoke, especially when it came to Wagner and

I had been writing a follow up to my previous pieces, in the Wagner drama It was evident that there was a Russian state attempt to discredit Prigozhin, in order to alienate him from Wagner. Russia, or some faction(s) within it, were trying to keep Wagner and remove Prigozhin.

I had literally written these words in my draft. This is why we saw the disclosures of wealth, weapons and disguises. I believed it would fail in its goal, and reminded me of attempts at telling Trump voters that he is a billionaire in order to alienate them from him.

Wagnerites, and other Prigozhin supporters know that he is very wealthy. And a man commanding a private army, is not one who would surprise others when having a few light weapons in his private home. Disguises likewise, were entertaining to silly folks but said nothing about the man other that he plays serious games with serious stakes, and takes them seriously.

In any event, this was in contrast to Prigozhin seemingly travelling freely back and forth between Belarus and Russia, reports of receiving his assets back, and continuing to do Russia's work in Africa.

The trend it seemed, was that cooler heads would prevail as time passed and tempers cooled. It will be very interesting to find out firstly who was on board that plane, who was on the second plane (and what happened to them upon landing), and what President Lukashenko (who likes to talk), has to say about today's events.

If Prigozhin is indeed deceased, we can be sure of seeing a message (hopefully video) from Wagner commanders. And unless the whole top echelon was taken out, I believe it will not be a disloyal message.

We could see everything from, Prigozhin was crazy, and led us astray, and we love Shoigu and MoD, to the opposite being nearly a declaration of vengeance if not war against the MoD (if not Putin). And anything in the middle.

I expect in such a case we would hear words firstly loyal both to Mr. Prigozhin and to Russia. But I would much rather hear, if not today eventually, that the intrepid billionaire as I like to call him, still lives. Ladies and gents, would Prigozhin be on board a 10 year old Embraer ERJ-135, or the 16 year old one??

Would he be on the leading one or the one following? And would he be flying in the lower or higher altitude?

Also note the different publicly known operator histories:

Something eerily strange and yet somehow predictable is occurring in mainstream US media reporting.

The Maui fires, and specifically the #Lahaina fires are being virtually ignored.

This of course has relegated the story to the conspiracy fringe, which in a more normal world not too long ago was always wrong but has lately seen more and more of its charges be at least significantly validated.

The official death count is at 99, was 96 yesterday and 89 the day before that. On Aug 11th it had been 67.

The problem is that much of the town is gone, an

We have often discussed logistics in this war, including specifically Russia's nearly unique Railway Troops (in quoted thread from last year).

The force, which has since grown, celebrated its 172nd anniversary, with the MoD releasing footage for the occasion.

Since our last https://t.co/E2fQJpVTfX

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1549196240327409664

discussion on the Railway Troops, they have become even more important.

On the logistics side, we have several strategic railways and rail hubs near the front (for both sides). They cannot be safely used by regular rail service. RU railway troops have an advantage in being able

I will be updating shortly on the ongoing Ukrainian offensive.

Recently it has involved courageous (if not terribly intelligent) assaults against Russian lines around Zaporizhzhia ending like this.

These BMPS carry squads (6-10 troops) to the combat line, what we see in this… https://t.co/hQ2KuGReIMtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Update:

More complete footage released from this attack. UA forces are attempting to outflank Robotyne from the east and even southeast (this is ongoing today in new attacks).

Seeing this larger picture we can see that this was reinforced brigade if not a divisional sized

The immediate aftermath:

As we discussed in the quoted post, the most likely outcome was a deal. This is what happened, and bloodshed was the for the most part avoided.

As we discussed, a deal at this late stage (as opposed to the missed opportunities earlier), would be

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1672749131092066304

difficult. Who would believe in the guarantees? As we have discussed before, Prigozhin is a private citizen who resides in Russia, under its jurisdiction and whose family and assets are mostly under its jurisdiction as well.
The answer to this (which I did not foresee) was

What did I tell you ladies and gents.
The most important parameter is reversing the position of the "wide" and "narrow" part of the river.

We discussed all of this previously in the quoted thread (bottom), in this long single tweet:

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1666109095533850625

and elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1666948710536757248

The important outcome here, which connects to the ongoing #Ukrainiancounteroffensive (or at least its theoretical plan) is the potential reversal in water levels and river width.

The drop in water levels of Lake Kakhovka is really striking. It has in many places been reduced to

To this Kakhovka dam collapse picture, let us add a few thoughts.

We can clearly see that one thing that the destruction of the dam does is reverse the situation in the front upstream and downstream from the dam.

Let use the @DefensePolitics map to illustrate. On the eve of

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1666043545113731077

collapse, the river was narrow downstream of the dam, and Russian forces contended with crossing attempts by UA forces on a daily basis. They had occupied the middle islands, and with a powerful base of Kherson city itself right up to the bank, made a powerful force projection

Police Sergeant Bradley T. McClure committing an unlawful arrest and subverting the US constitution on film. He can do that because he did against a white man who was expressing conservative and/or Christian beliefs.

If it wasn't on video, the small sergeant's actions would go

https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1666151114184724480

unnoticed and be successful. Because it is on video, (full version for those interested: ), then if enough citizens in America still care about their freedom and the rule of law, then perhaps it won't be.

Anyone who watches the full video will clearly see

Big news, massive flooding along the Dnieper in the Kherson region. Kakhovskaya HPP is severely damaged. We have discussed the strategic importance of the water level previously. Together with the much anticipated UA counteroffensive we now have this development. Some of the

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1648675083924258816

earliest footage was from daybreak today. The flooding started in early dawn. Goes without saying that the mainstream media and the EU quickly blamed Russia for intentionally blowing up the damn (and called it a war crime). That the dam is Russian controlled, and that the

Interestingly, there is not much to add to the Belgorod affair, that I didn't write about in the first minutes of its reports emerging.

The important issue is the strategic threat that UA is building along the international border. As we have discussed, that is a current big

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1660583407972151297

advantage to Russia in the balance of forces. It is to UA's advantage to make Russia have to defend the long international border as much as any part of the front (within UA). Ironically, UA's obsessions with winning a PR war (rather than the real war on hand) limited the

A Good week to you folks.

Addressing the rapidly culminating fall of Bakhmut.

Now that the NW corner of Bakhmut finally fell (note that we have discussed this as a key location for a long time,

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1645071117093163015

) to Wagner forces, and thus subsequently Domino very quickly thereafter (as we discussed, if UA troops did not leave Domino they would be encircled

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1658455879769903105

), which was the last part of the Citadel that was left in UA hands, we can expect faster movement than has been usual for the last weeks.

Now onto Bakhmut. First, a couple of days ago Wagner's head Prigozhin released an interesting video. He shows off large stocks of captured weapons (complains that the higher ups haven't been interested in it), and complains about the artillery munition supply. He jokes that they can sell or trade these online in exchange for munitions. All sorts of theories on this, since it seems quite insubordinate, especially against the bureaucrats and Minister of Defense Shoigu. The leaked Pentagon documents mention this issue, and have been wanting to comment

Recently released footage from #Russian sources show that #Marinka, heavily fortified over the last decade, seemingly impregnable to Russian advance, is finally near falling.

The work of the "flamethrower" TOS-1 indicates that only around 15% of the town remains in UA hands. The TOS1A Solntsepyok, which cannot be too far behind (short range), is targeting UA positions in the western edge of the town. Little is left of the once lovely Donetsk suburb, famously captured from Russian separatists by the Azov battalion.

You heard them right? The world's lone superpower Secretary of Defense and Chairman the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in testimony to the House (Armed Services Committee).

Short version below in thread.

So what is going on?

Seems like the evidence keeps lying. It points to the US Navy now using drag queen Joshua Kelley (aka Harpy Daniels) to "attract" new enlistment.

Not sure what kind they are trying to attract. But I am sure this strikes fear in the hearts of the US' enemies.

(for more:

https://twitter.com/ImMeme0/status/1653336015946358788

)

A quick note about an increasingly frequent phenomena in the #Ukraine war.
UA drones, or better said loitering munitions, are being found around Moscow.

Here we see a UA made UJ-22 Airborn, which ran out of fuel in the Moscow (Bogorodsk) region & crashed. It carried 17kg of C-4 explosives (US made according to RU sources).
Several others have been similarly found or shot down. The drones impressively penetrated very far into the Russian interior. They obviously are kamikaze strike drones and not meant for reconnaissance. However until now we had not

Recent #Ukrainian footage from the well known 93 independent mechanized brigade, shows #Russian shelling on the western edge of #Bakhmut, the last UA positions before a complete cut of the already limited UA lines of communication. Geolocation below.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1653354253044383744

What we have here is shelling of the UA positions around the Children's hospital (yellow) and the last sections of light residential buildings between the Russian Wagner forces and the critical road junctions (black) around Khromove. As we have discussed repeatedly, if the

Recently released UA footage shows how unusable highway T-0504 really is. Of course note the condition of the road & the littered destroyed armored & supply vehicles.
While the impression meant is "Yea, a bit difficult, but we manage east & west on this road with gusto!", the geo

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1653183866243350533

location tells a different story. The story this video tells is that of communications between Chasiv Yar (& it skips the destroyed bridge & the dirt bypass) and Ivanivske, not the story of Ivanivske and Bakhmut. We can see Bakhmut in the distance, specifically the UA fortified

Though reports of flooding are incoming, Sat imagery in general still shows recent days to be somewhat drier than last year as far as water level.
Regardless, Ukraine clearly has announced that there will be some flooding in low lying areas along the river, & has opened the gates

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1648518196587278336

of the HPP in Zaporizhzhia.