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Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
@ClimateAudit
Jun 13, 2023 • 24 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
a few months ago, I discussed the Biden-Poroshenko during 2016 transition in which Biden re-assured Poroshenko not to worry about FBI doing anything about Onyshchenko (Poroshenko's fugitive bagman who had the tapes) meeting with FBI.
in that thread (which is worth re-reading), I had noted a contemporary Ukrainian news article (cited in a FOIAed State Dept email) which stated that Onyshchenko's deal with FBI involved Andrew Weissman Image
in addition to being in possession of tapes between Biden and Poroshenko, Onyshchenko also claimed to have met with Zlochevsky to negotiate Poroshenko's cut of Burisma's licences and to have tapes
kyivpost.com/post/10532 Image
Onyshchenko's claimed connection to Weissmann in December 2016 (when Weissman meeting with Ohr, Strzok, Page and Zainab Ahmad) seems too implausible to be true, but here is copy of the signature of agreement between DOJ and Onyshchenko on Nov 29, 2016, referring to Weissmann Image
curiously, both Danchenko's deal and Onyshchenko's deal with FBI/DOJ were entered into during transition period just prior to Trump inauguration.
Danchenko was granted CHS status on March 5, 2017 and his evidence to FBI in January 2017 - which was highly exculpatory for Trump - was buried by FBI.
Worse, FBI omitted Damchenko's exculpatory information to conceal deteriorating investigation predicate while Comey sought permission to reveal Crossfire to congress and make Russia investigation front page news. What Enron prosecutors would call "fraud".
Onyshchenko's deal with FBI was signed a few weeks prior to Danchenko's. Onyshchenko's incriminating information appears to have been buried as thoroughly as Danchenko's exculpatory information and during same time period. Is there a connection?
in late November 2019, subsequent to impeachment hearings, Onyshchenko was scheduled to travel to the US to publicize his allegations, but was arrested in Germany and held for about 6 months.
in May 2020, while still in jail, Onyshchenko (according to his story) arranged for Biden-Poroshenko tapes to be delivered to Andrii Derkach, who then released excerpts in several press conferences.
in Aug 2020, William Evanina of ODNI stated Derkach tapes were Russian disinformation and on Sep 10, 2020, Derkach was sanctioned by Treasury OFAC, resulting in erasure of his social media and even his website. Buried even more thoroughly than Hunter laptop 4 weeks later
Onyshchenko himself was sanctioned by Treasury OFAC on January 10, 2021 in one of the very last acts of outgoing Trump admin. When they ought to have been releasing Russiagate hoax documents.
this thread was inspired by @FOOL_NELSON's question about a CHS mentioned by Horowitz who provided information beginning in March 2017 and by recent information connecting CHS to Burisma and Ukraine, plus CHS possession of tapes
Image
in a Ukrainian language article in 2018, Onyshchenko claimed that he had acted as an intermediary with Zlochevsky in the negotiation of the deal in which Ukrainian charges against Burisma were dropped
strana.news/articles/analy… Image
it goes without saying that this thread reflects input by @FOOL_NELSON, @walkafyre and @HansMahncke.
I mentioned that this thread began with the identity of Horowitz' CHS. As most readers are aware, New York Post identified Gal Luft as a missing witness in Biden investigation. Plausible candidate as the mysterious CHS.
nypost.com/2023/05/31/mis… Image
nypost.com/2023/06/12/bur… based on New York Post reporting today, Burisma bought into a joint venture with Cub Energy: and this may be connected to Hunter's desire for Burisma to acquire North American foothold Image
a candidate for the source for CHS information arising from Cub Energy connection (proposed by a reader) is Frank Mermoud. Story seems to be developing quickly all of a sudden.
it increasingly appears that FBI/DOJ, in addition to burying incriminating information from Onyshchenko, was also burying incriminating information from Gal Luft, who increasingly appears to be the "informant" identified by Comer
Image
a reader proposed an alternative to Frank Mermoud as Gal Luft's source. Mermoud was Chairman of Cub Energy, a company with Ukrainian gas interests, some joint with Burisma, that was listed with Canadian securities commissions (now Carcetti Capital)
the alternative source to Gal Luft proposed by a reader is Mikhail Afendikov, formerly CEO of Cub Energy, who died suddenly on Feb 1, 2021, shortly after Biden's inauguration.

expro.com.ua/en/tidings/unt…
however, making and saving of tapes seems much more plausible if Luft's source is someone like Onyshchenko (who we know both to have accumulated many tapes and to have been in contact with Zlochevsky) than a director of a public company (Mermoud, Afendikov etc). We'll see (maybe)
if the informant's source turns out to be Onyshchenko, then we'll have a truly bizarre situation in which not only was the informant giving information to FBI that was buried, but the informant's source was also giving info to FBI that was being buried.

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More from @ClimateAudit

Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Aug 12
Here's a listing of Minority HPSCI Staff in early 2017. Most of the redactions in yesterday's release can be identified here. Image
In two of the 302s, WHISTLEB described the HPSCI Democrat system for exfiltrating secret information from a secure room in a three letter agency: presumably FBI, from which copies and notes were prohibited.

As a work-around, three HPSCI Democrat staffers would attend the Secure Room and, after each visit, "would immediately compose summaries" on a standalone computer set up in a back room by "committee's network administrator" for exclusive use by "Russian team" members. After the three Russian team members had completed their visit summaries, they briefed certain other staffers.

All of the names underneath the redactions can be plausibly identified from contemporary HPSCI Democrat staff rosters as shown below.Image
Here is a transcription of each of the two descriptions of the Russian team and secondary briefees, showing character counts.

The Russian Team had two 16s (at least one with LN8) and an 11. (number denotes character count of full name.)

The secondary briefees were a 6+5 (12), two 13s (one a 5+7), an 11, and the communications director (a 14). One of the 13s was a new hire.Image
Read 9 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Jul 31
Durham Classified Appendix is almost entirely about "Clinton Plan". Unsurprisingly, nothing about the post-election events during which Russiagate collusion hoax actually metastasized under FBI and CIA into a national flesh-eating disease.
Emails from Lenny Benardo of Soros' Open Society Foundation feature prominently. Note that Benardo was mentioned in a Washington Post article by Demirjan and Devlin Barrett on May 24, 2017 (a few days after Mueller appointment) - archive archive.is/w43O2 reporting that the email had been dismissed by FBI as "unreliable". DWS, Benardo and Renteria said at the time that they had never been interviewed by FBI.Image
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Fool_Nelson proposed Julie Smith as Foreign Policy Advisor-2 in Durham report at the time:
Here's a July 27, 2016 email (attributed to Benardo) which contains a detail relevant to the argument against @DNIGabbard's first drop, claiming that Russian interference concern was NEVER about election infrastructure, but always about DNC hack and Buff Bernie memes. Here Benardo talks about how to make Russia "a domestic issue" by raising the spectre of a "critical infrastructure threat for the election". Brennan subsequently did just that: raised concern about "infrastructure threat". ODNI played down that threat in their briefings and ultimately in the proposed post-election PDB of December 8, 2016 which was cancelled by Obama intervention.Image
Read 4 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Jul 22
the ICA version in the recent DNI documents is a different version (dated January 5, 2017) than the released version (dated January 6, 2017). There were many changes overnight - some substantive.

Before editorializing, I'll laboriously go through comparisons - final version on left, previous day version on right. (I apologize for not marking this on each of the following slides.)Image
The Jan 6, 2017 version contained a preface entitled "Background... The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution", not present in the Jan 5 version (as shown). It has two sections.

The first section entitled "The Analytic Process" stated that these assessments "adhere to tradecraft standards".

"On these issues of great importance to US national security, the goal of intelligence analysis is to provide assessments to decisionmakers that are intellectually rigorous, objective, timely, and useful, and that adhere to tradecraft standards."

Now recall the dispute over inclusion of Steele dossier information in the ICA as an appendix and, as we recently learned, as a bullet supporting the assessment that Putin "aspired" to help Trump. Some IC professionals objected to the inclusion of Steele dossier information on the grounds that it did not meet tradecraft standards for inclusion in an ICA. Comey, McCabe and FBI insisted on its inclusion on the grounds that Obama had said to include "everything" - which they interpreted as mandating inclusion of Steele dossier information even though it didn't meet tradecraft standards.

Reasonable people can perhaps disagree on whether this was justified or not. What was not justified was the claim that the inclusion decision complied with "tradecraft standards". It was bad enough to include non-compliant material, but the claim that the included material "adhered to tradecraft standards" was miserably false. The recent Tradecraft Review should have addressed this fault.Image
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The preface also included the following assertion:
"The tradecraft standards for analytic products have been refined over the past ten years. These standards include describing sources (including their reliability and access to the information they provide), clearly expressing uncertainty, distinguishing between underlying information and analysts’ judgments and assumptions, exploring alternatives, demonstrating relevance to the customer, using strong and transparent logic, and explaining change or consistency in judgments over time."

The "past ten years" here refers to the period of time since the savage tradecraft review by the WMD Commission, an excellent repot on a previous intelligence failure of similar scale to the Russia collusion hoax as an //intelligence failure// - which it was (even if non-criminal).

They state that "standards include describing sources (including their reliability and access to the information they provide)". Now apply that to the description of the Steele network in the classified appendix (declassified and released in 2020) shown below and transcribed as follows:
"the source is an executive of a private business intelligence firm and a former employee of a friendly foreign intelligence service who has been compensated for previous reporting over the past three years. The source maintains and collects information from a layered network of identified and unidentified subsources, some of which has been corroborated in the past. The source collected this information on behalf of private clients and was not compensated for it by the FBI".

This description does not remotely comply with the warranty in the Preface. We know that Steele (the "source") had told the FBI that his information was funneled through a "Russian-based sub-source" who Steele refused to identify. Steele did however tell the FBI that Sergei Millian was one of the sub-subsources to the "Russian-based sub-source". By mid-December 2016, the FBI had figured out that Steele's "Russian-based sub-source" was Igor Danchenko, an alumnus of U of Louisville, Georgetown and Brookings Institute, who lived in northern Virginia and had an American-born daughter. A fulsome description of sources IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE WARRANTY IN THE PREFACE would have included these details and more.

It would have also stated that the FBI planned to interview the Primary Sub-Source as soon as possible. Given the importance of the document, the obvious question from any sane reviewer of the draft ICA would be: "uh, why don't you interview Steele's Primary Sub-Source right now? Today? " "And, by the way, why are you saying that he is 'Russian-based' when he lives in northern Virginia?"

If the reviewers had known that Steele's Primary Sub-Source had lived in northern Virginia and was available for interview, maybe they would have said: "uh, maybe we should hold off this ICA until we talk to Danchenko. This is a big document, maybe we should do some due diligence". But they weren't given that option, because Danchenko's location in northern Virginia was concealed from them. The warranty in the prefatory Background was false.

Subsequently, a few weeks later, when the FBI interviewed Danchenko and he revealed that there wasn't any "layered network" and that the key allegations were based (at best) on an anonymous phone call and that many of the sourcing claims in the dossier were untrue, the intelligence community had an obligation to fess up. To retract their claims about the Steele dossier, which, by the end of January, had emerged in public consciousness as the driving predicate of the Russia collusion investigation. Once the FBI knew that the sourcing claims were fraudulent, they had an obligation to disclose that to the rest of the IC and to publicly disown the Steele dossier, which had become important to the public precisely because of its endorsement in the ICA.Image
Read 9 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Jul 14
Trump's latest tariff venture is a 50% tariff on copper, ostensibly for national security reasons. Copper markets are something that I analysed in the 1970s; so I know the structure of the markets and statistics. I was even been involved as a junior analyst in a trade case about US copper tariffs.

Under the US Defense Production Act, Canada is considered "domestic production" for the purposes of national security, but neither Trump nor the Canadian government seem to have had any interest in this legislation.

I remember the difficulties of trying to make long-term forecasts of copper supply and demand. Copper is also a market with voluminous statistics maintained consistently for a very long period. US Geological Survey for US consumption and primary production of refined copper for 1950-2024 are shown below. As someone who, in the 1970s, actually thought about what this chart would look like, it was interesting to re-visit.

In the 1920s and 1930s, US copper company were industrial behemoths: Anaconda, Kennecott, Phelps Dodge and Asarco, all now forgotten, were among the top 20 or top 50 US stocks back in the day. In the 1970s, they were still major companies. US accounted for about 25% of world production and consumption.

But, as you can see, since 2000, both US primary production and US refined consumption have declined precipitously. US refined consumption is now at lower levels than in the 1970s and US primary production is less than the early 1950s.

What will be the impact of a 50% tariff on copper imports? In the next post, I'll show how the changes in US market compare to world production.Image
although US copper production has declined since the 1970s, world copper production has almost quadrupled. US share of world copper refined production (here primary plus secondary scrap) has decreased from about 25% to 3%.

US copper production and consumption no longer dominate world markets - despite what the Beltway may imagine. An approximate 3% share doesn't get to dictate prices.

That means that the 50% copper tariff will be borne entirely by US copper consumers (i.e. manufacturers using copper). US producers will almost certainly increase their price to match the price of imports. So the tariff will be a bonanza for US domestic producers (e.g. Freeport McMoran) and a burden for US manufacturers.Image
the copper data also shows a vignette into the remarkable change in world economic geography since 9/11. In 2001, US still produced more copper than China. In 2024, China produced more than 13(!) times as much copper as USA. This isn't just production, but also consumption. Chinese manufacturers consume most of their copper production; their copper consumption is accordingly an order of magnitude greater than US copper consumption.

So when Trump puffs about the importance of USA as a market, this is simply not true of a basic commodity like copper. And I'm skeptical that it is true for other basic commodities.Image
Read 4 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Jul 9
on first page: Brennan's lawyer, Robert Litt, was General Counsel at ODNI in 2016 and involved in some key events. Litt published an article in October 2017 lawfaremedia.org/article/irrele… which claimed that "The dossier itself played absolutely no role in the coordinated intelligence assessment that Russia interfered in our election." The recent Tradecraft Review, abysmal as it was, admitted that the dossier was cited in the classified ICA as a bullet support for the claim that Putin "aspired" to help Trump get elected.Image
Image
@15poundstogo very Clintonian here Image
Brennan refers here to two press releases issued by William Evanina in July and August 2020. The Evanina statements were prompted in large part by the release of Biden-Poroshenko tapes by Ukrainian parliamentarian Andrii Derkach (who had previously in October 2016 published receipts showing that Hunter Biden was getting paid $1 million per year by Burisma). Shortly after Evanina's statements, "Trump" administration sanctioned Derkach. As a result of these sanctions, Derkach was de-platformed and the Biden-Poroshenko tapes were deleted from nearly all locations. One of the tapes showed that Poroshenko and Biden gloated in August 2016 about the removal of Manafort as Trump campaign chair as a result of Ukrainian interference (Black Ledger announcement.)Image
Read 11 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
Apr 13
New thread on new information from redactions.

I just noticed that the information in Binder on Trump briefing in Aug 2016 was previously published by Grassley in July 2020, a few days after identification of Steele Primary Sub-source (and thus we, in this corner, were otherwise preoccupied).
grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…

The new version sheds light on a previous redaction. Katrina, Norm, Ted, John and Amir were mentioned. Just noting this for future reference.Image
something else that I'm noticing in the less redacted documents: Kevin Clinesmith was much more prominent in Crossfire Hurricane operation than we previously realized.

In real time, Hans, myself and others had vehemently and savagely criticized Durham's useless plea agreement with Clinesmith that had failed to use their leverage over Clinesmith to obtain a road map of the Russiagate hoax operation. Compare for example Mueller's use of leverage over Rick Gates to interview him about 20 times, If anything, there was more leverage over Clinesmith.

Durham's failure to lever Clinesmith looks worse and worse as we now see Clinesmith's name in multiple Crossfire documents that had previously been redacted.

For example, here is Clinesmith on August 30, 2016 - early days of Russiagate hoax - approving the reporting of FBI surveillance of Trump and Flynn while they were supposedly providing a counterintelligence briefing.

In this briefing, they failed to give Trump and Flynn the same warning about Turkey that they had previously given Clinton's lawyers.Image
here's an example where the "declassified" Binder contains a redaction not made in the version published by Grassley almost five years ago. the name of Edward (Ted) Gistaro of ODNI Image
Read 19 tweets

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