@moseskagan I think one of the curious undercurrents of the last few decades is that the cost of competent management, of all forms, has probably risen faster than productivity, general wages, etc.
Among other things, society’s free lunches got priced.
@moseskagan And so people might not be strictly imagining it when they say “Why back in my day you could get a solid lad with a good mind for paperwork to cover 40 units for …”
Yeah, you could. His kid is now a PM at Google, having had absolutely no desire to schedule plumbers for living.
@moseskagan And as the cost of competent managers has risen we’ve had demand for managers absolutely explode, for general “the bureaucracy must expand to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy” reasons.
A lot of those marginal ones are get-what-you-paid-for-and-get-it-hard types.
@moseskagan A family member who is a card-carrying member of the PMC in a high-status organization was fulminating to me that his last few PMs had been nincompoops.
“$NAME, you want someone young and ambitious. You are young and ambitious. How does PM strike you as a calling?”
“Oh eff that”
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A particularly important point is that the symptom “failed software modernization project” is often just visible evidence of incoherent policy, which was the case for decades but not legible until one was forced to actually attempt to implement the policy.
The example given is that a state unemployment insurance (UI) scheme is not a binder of rules designed to coherently address the state’s goals. It is 90 years of memos modifying previous memos, accumulating like sediment. Plus court cases, etc.
I think this overstates the case, but I do know that increase in (for lack of a better word) anti-social behavior is driving interest in IT and Ops investments to track returns by customer with more granularity, which has found super-Pareto distribution every time it was tried.
And I imagine some companies are going to eventually say “You know? We’ll take a PR hit. Once.”
“Returning things isn’t anti-social behavior!”
See this is you, a normally socialized human being, thinking that everyone else is a normally socialized human being, when that is extremely not the case.
Bank: “You seem like someone who wants to save in dollars!”
Me: “Oh dear.”
Bank: “So much easier to understand than yen!”
Me: “Oh dear.”
Bank: “Can we interest you in a 2 year CD?”
Me: “… Strictly hypothetically, at what rate?”
2%.
Me: “I am afraid that is not a competitive interest rate, especially since you will build a substantial fee into the FX quote on the dollars.”
Bank: “Who offers a better rate?!?”
Me: “The United States of America, among others.”
Bank: “Oh that’s right they will do biz w/ you.”
Me: “I am given to understand that Japanese people, partially through their government but also on their own accounts and through various intermediaries, are one of the largest holders of Treasuries.”
Bank: “Oh you seem to know a lot about this.”
Me: “*sigh*”
The cost of human cognition is not constant over the course of a 24 hour or 365 day period, which is an interesting observation given that we now have price models for non-human cognition which is partially substitutable *and varies in a frequently opposite fashion.*
Meaning, people want more money to be available to answer questions at 3:13 AM or on Christmas Day. GPUs, on the other hand, tend to have lower utilization at both of these times, because potential users are (like potential supply) largely not working.
"OK so in theory that is nice but what practical relevance does it have."
I mean if you're an SRE holding a pager which goes off at 4:15 AM you'd far prefer to asking the usual LLM you use to be second set of eyes versus paging a second engineer, right, given some ambiguity?
If you’re ever asked whether you want to put a transaction through in the local currency of the place you are in or the home currency of your payment method, the first will be much cheaper, as a rule.
Most recent encounter with this: I needed yen in cash and don’t have any in the Japanese bank accounts due to, among other reasons, the recent weeklong bank holiday causing timing issues.
So I accept that I’m going to buy financial services and try to withdrawal with US debit.
I then get presented a usual screen: would you like to pay 100k yen and a 220 yen fee or would you like to pay $747.20 and no fee?
There is a lot of text on this screen out of a combination of regulatory requirements and, I think, causing people to overload on complexity.
In addition to ex-company infra, a substantial portion of one’s character points get invested in learning how to operate the company *itself* as a technology. Walking the org chart, understanding the *real* process not the documented one, etc etc.
This firm-specific capital doesn’t port well, at least not until a company has cordycepted a notionally competing company so deeply that there are subunits of it which are chemically indistinguishable from home.
On the optimistic side, at least some people who are 10X engineers at (without loss of generality) Google are 10X engineers *at Google*, and have Google itself figured out to a degree that almost no humans are capable of.