Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Jun 14 9 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. Tuesday again saw the most intense fighting in Ukraine south of #VelykaNovosilka. Each day the Ukrainian forces appear to apply lessons learned and employ combined arms tactics with advanced Kamikaze drone units to attack Russian infantry and armor units. Image
2. Russia has fought a trench war for years. Modern mechanized units make these tactics all but obsolete. Ukrainian forces are supported by heavy artillery and drones. Today when the Russians attempted to stop the Ukrainian advance with their Thermobaric tube artillery
3. the inferior thermobaric rocket range made it easy for the Ukrainian counter-battery artillery to target the thermobaric artillery and put it out of action. I've noticed that Ukraine is now deploying full drone attack units along several fronts.
4. While sanctioned Russia and Iran scavenge for western technology to build drones, Ukraine has created a robust drone capacity that is now being deployed across all battle fronts. In the past day, one unit, Magyar's Birds, has destroyed 8 Russian tanks in the Russian rear.
5. The drones transmit video of their attacks that have to have a crushing impact on Russian tank crew morale because the videos are online. In addition highly accurate Ukrainian artillery is destroying Russian equipment that simply can't hide in #Zaporizhia.
6. Ukraine has completed demining the western edge of the area near #Levadne and it appears they are poised to possibly close the line towards the east and create a straight and more-easily defended front to continue their advance.
7. @projectowlosint has added Russian fortifications to their map data shown in orange provided by @Nrg8000 that shows that once the line is set Ukraine will face Russian fortifications that will have to be breached. I know many think this is the offensive that Image
8. we have been waiting for but I'm not sure it is. I still think it shows evidence of being a very big and dangerous training operation with the real show yet to come. Ukraine is showing that despite not having the air force to control it's skies on the battlefield it is able
9. deploy deadly drones that replace expensive ground attack aircraft with something you might buy you kid for Christmas. War is changing. Adaptation is the key. Russia simply can't adapt and is likely doomed to defeat.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Jun 13
Trump arrives at Miami federal court amid curious on-lookers but no evidence of a large crowd of dangerous supporters. Image
Cars parking outside the courthouse. Image
Bike officers parking. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 13
1. Monday, Ukraine made steady progress on the #southernfront south of #VelykaNovosilka. Earlier gains are being consolidated across a wide front as Russian forces continue to fall back under risk of encirclement. Russia destroyed another dam on the Mokri Yaly river to slow the Image
2. Ukrainian force advance but there is no evidence that the Ukrainian offensive will be stalled.

In areas to the south, Ukraine is conducting strikes on Russian command and operational centers striking the operational command center for the entire region in #Henichesk. ImageImage
3. Other strikes are reported in #Melitopol, #Tokmak and #Molochne. One of these strikes has reportedly killed the commander of the Russian 35th Army, Major General #Goryachev. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12
1. My guess is that Walt Nauta thought his billionaire bud would take care of him. If they both appear with public defenders tomorrow Nauta may start having doubts. If Trump pays for Nauta's trial counsel then he has a motive to play ball. But if Nauta is represented by a Image
2. federal public defender that lawyer will likely advise Nauta to cooperate and make a deal fast to avoid a long prison term. So the fun part of Trump's mission impossible to find some Miami firm willing to take a chance on him is he also has to find one to represent Nauta.
3. If Trump can't, he may find the Govt coming in very quickly with a plea agreement and an allocution that details the crimes that Trump committed with Nauta. And if he finds a firm, I'm guessing the firm will want a seven-figure retainer.
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Jun 12
1. One thing that is scary about Cannon who IMO has a demonstrated bias in favor of Trump, is that she can issue exclusionary rulings that destroy the Govt case. But I think much of the key evidentiary rulings on privileges have been through appeals to the DC appeals court and
2. I think were already ruled upon by SCOTUS. Though I'd have to research to be certain that the "law of the case" doctrine applies to interlocutory appeals in a grand jury proceeding in the subsequent criminal case, my guess is that it does, so Cannon could have
3. no power to help him on issues that the appellate courts have already decided the issue. I would love to hear what the former federal prosecutors say about this. Because Jack Smith would know this his decision to not file in DC may have been easier knowing that the key issues
Read 4 tweets
Jun 12
Just in from SDFL. Looks like Trump's attorneys tried to appear but unlike yours truly never read the local rules. Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12
1. The updated @projectowlosint map shows Ukraine has confirmed the taking of the earlier reported settlements south of #VelykaNovosika shown in yellow and continues to press at the #southernfront. In an attempt to slow the Ukrainian advance the Russians Image
2. destroyed the #MokriYaly River dam circled above that will flood settlements to the north. The Russians likely hope that this will slow the Ukrainian advance by making it difficult for Ukraine to cross the river but it also puts the Russia forces on the east bank in a
3. difficult position because they can't be reinforced and will likely be forced to withdraw. Ukraine appears to be slowly forcing the Russians to fall back and permit the Ukrainian to even the line of contact north of the dam. This is all occurring with no indication that
Read 6 tweets

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