Stuart Loren Profile picture
Jun 14 10 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ News today that CPS budget will remain steady at $9.4b in FY 2024. But more notable is that CPS will use its taxing authority to increase property taxes 5% in Chicago to help funding. At this rate, CPS and the city will just own all our houses soon…

cps.edu/about/finance/… Image
2/ In the private sector, when demand for your product or service declines 20% over a decade, you usually get some sort of restructuring that includes right-sizing costs. But in the public sector?… Image
3/ To be clear, I appreciate and respect teachers. My wife was once a teacher in CPS and I benefitted immensely from quality public education. But it’s fair to ask - as city tax payers - what we’re getting in return for this spending increase.

H/T @Wirepoints & @illinoispolicy ImageImage
4/ While spending has surged, student outcomes have plummeted. And CTU’s insistence on stay-at-home learning, and subsequent strikes, set back students perhaps irreparably.

illinoispolicy.org/chicago-public… Image
5/ So what is all this money going to support? There’s surely some unsustainable fixed costs with enrollment down so much, but - no surprise from me… - about a quarter of the operating budget goes toward benefits and pensions.

illinoispolicy.org/chicago-public… Image
6/ If spending is not right-sized to adjust to the reality of lower enrollment, this funding gap is only going to get worse as the state is on track to have much lower contributions starting soon and federal Covid money runs out.

chicago.suntimes.com/education/2023…
7/ By far the most logical fix would be pension reform. But I don’t have high hopes given the constitutional barriers to doing so and a mayor who is very union friendly. Incentivizing growth would also help - as this would increase city residents, economic output and tax revenue.
8/ Any reform would require buy-in from the CTU, but something tells me that isn’t happening… I don’t know how much they will still love all this socialism stuff when they run out of residents to tax. ImageImageImage
9/ Generally speaking, Chicago needs a much healthier balance between tax payer interests and public services. The only ways to get that are pension reform or shifting the policy stance to become far more pro business to attract more workers and residents.
10/ Last thing, it’s amusing that all the progressive and DSA types here who rail against the wealthy, businesses and “corporate greed” are silent about public sector greed. Could you imagine their outrage if businesses and landlords said we’re going to “raise prices to-the-max” Image

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More from @StuLoren

Mar 15
I want this post/comments to be respectful. I just read the below on crime in Chicago in which the author suggests residents' perception of crime has a racial element. While I respect the author's opinion, I would like to offer up a different perspective.
chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/202…
Below is an excerpt from the author's piece. Again, I can appreciate that others in the city have had life experiences that would lead them to think this. Perhaps it is sadly true in many cases. But I can speak for myself at least that my concern about crime is not rooted in race Image
My concern about crime - and I think the concern of many - is that my family has been endangered as public safety has deteriorated. If you have children and those children are put in harm's way, as mine have on several occasions, I think your views/focus on public safety change.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 14
Thread on economic and fiscal reality for Chicago. These goals are laudable. I share them. I bet most residents do. But it’s wrong to claim “the resources exist” and that a better Chicago is a matter of “political courage.” Sadly, Johnson’s plans would mean political calamity. Image
Let’s start with city resources. As I’ve highlighted, we pay an obscene amount to our underfunded pension plans, which state law prevents reforming (short of a constitutional amendment). The $2.6b for FY 2023 is over 20% of city expenditures.

chicago.gov/content/dam/ci… Image
Pensions are a “fixed cost” - meaning they have to be paid. It’s not a discretionary spending item like most city services. And when you add in other fixed costs (like interest payments on debt) Chicago is at 43.4% of the budget (per S&P Global). spglobal.com/ratings/en/res…
Read 24 tweets
Mar 6
Something I want to return to… Brandon Johnson saying his tax plans won’t drive people out of the city. Aside from lacking in economic common sense, it reveals that he’s unaware of the real economic problem Chicago faces.

cbsnews.com/chicago/news/m…
While we should worry about driving residents / businesses out of the city, we need to focus on bringing people back in. Higher taxes (including on commuters) won’t do that. Here’s how Chicago ranks per a Berkeley study in downtown recovery. 50% vs 2019. downtownrecovery.com
And here are Chicago Metra and CTA commuter statistics courtesy of @biancoresearch. Not great! People aren’t coming downtown for work or entertainment. That’s a lot of lost economic activity.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 5
So if we’re gonna have a convo about the company you keep… Brandon Johnson’s biggest backer is the Chicago Teachers Union. Yes, wouldn’t it be great if the CTU had more of a say in city policy? We’d enter a new dawn of socialist nirvana where we don’t need police or finance.
Do we really want a candidate beholden to the CTU? They’ve spent close to $2.5m backing him. He’s their man.
I love teachers - so much that I even married a former teacher! But the Union? Not so much. It’s done wonders for the city… Thanks to their noble work, most public school students are years behind in their educational development. School stopped, but pensions for sure didn’t.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 5
Stable fiscal foundation? Look, I live here and want stuff to be better too. But the first step is to confront reality. We then need pro-growth policies to reinvigorate our economy. The government doesn’t sustainably “lift up” working families (or anyone else). Opportunities do.
I agree with Gov Pritzker that it’s great we’ve received credit upgrades the last two years. This will lower our cost of borrowing which is currently the highest in the country amongst states. But let’s give a little credit where credit is due. Not sure it’s stable/sustainable.
And as I’ve pointed out, our spending still isn’t responsible. And our state revenue hasn’t kept pace with inflation. A theme in this thread: Growing revenue via better economic performance - not more taxes or Fed assistance - is the best path out of our fiscal and pension mess.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 5
1/5 One of the most important interviews you’ll read all year with @PhilipKHoward. On the problems, costs and conflicts of interest posed by public sector unions.

wsj.com/articles/the-p…
2/ A few excerpts… (A) on conflicted interests and bargaining disparities:
3/ (B) on political influence:
Read 5 tweets

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