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Stuart Loren Profile picture
Stuart Loren
@StuLoren
Markets, policy, parenting & other fun stuff. Background in history, law, finance & dogs. Outdoors & Alaska.
NJdad Profile picture 3 subscribed
Nov 27, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
1/ Some working thoughts: Much of human history is a story of tribal allegiances and conflict. For an exploration of the scientific reasons we may be hardwired for tribalism, I’d recommend renowned biologist E.O. Wilson’s The Social Conquest of Earth.

amazon.com/Social-Conques…
Image 2/ The tragedy of modern America is that we are undermining the achievement of a society in which we were united by ideals instead of what are often divisive group dynamics. If we’re decreasingly bonded by our national heritage, we risk social upheaval.

axios.com/2023/07/25/mil…
Image
Jun 14, 2023 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
1/ News today that CPS budget will remain steady at $9.4b in FY 2024. But more notable is that CPS will use its taxing authority to increase property taxes 5% in Chicago to help funding. At this rate, CPS and the city will just own all our houses soon…

cps.edu/about/finance/… Image 2/ In the private sector, when demand for your product or service declines 20% over a decade, you usually get some sort of restructuring that includes right-sizing costs. But in the public sector?… Image
Mar 15, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
I want this post/comments to be respectful. I just read the below on crime in Chicago in which the author suggests residents' perception of crime has a racial element. While I respect the author's opinion, I would like to offer up a different perspective.
chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/202… Below is an excerpt from the author's piece. Again, I can appreciate that others in the city have had life experiences that would lead them to think this. Perhaps it is sadly true in many cases. But I can speak for myself at least that my concern about crime is not rooted in race Image
Mar 14, 2023 • 24 tweets • 10 min read
Thread on economic and fiscal reality for Chicago. These goals are laudable. I share them. I bet most residents do. But it’s wrong to claim “the resources exist” and that a better Chicago is a matter of “political courage.” Sadly, Johnson’s plans would mean political calamity. Image Let’s start with city resources. As I’ve highlighted, we pay an obscene amount to our underfunded pension plans, which state law prevents reforming (short of a constitutional amendment). The $2.6b for FY 2023 is over 20% of city expenditures.

chicago.gov/content/dam/ci… Image
Mar 6, 2023 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
Something I want to return to… Brandon Johnson saying his tax plans won’t drive people out of the city. Aside from lacking in economic common sense, it reveals that he’s unaware of the real economic problem Chicago faces.

cbsnews.com/chicago/news/m… While we should worry about driving residents / businesses out of the city, we need to focus on bringing people back in. Higher taxes (including on commuters) won’t do that. Here’s how Chicago ranks per a Berkeley study in downtown recovery. 50% vs 2019. downtownrecovery.com
Mar 5, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
So if we’re gonna have a convo about the company you keep… Brandon Johnson’s biggest backer is the Chicago Teachers Union. Yes, wouldn’t it be great if the CTU had more of a say in city policy? We’d enter a new dawn of socialist nirvana where we don’t need police or finance. Do we really want a candidate beholden to the CTU? They’ve spent close to $2.5m backing him. He’s their man.
Mar 5, 2023 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
Stable fiscal foundation? Look, I live here and want stuff to be better too. But the first step is to confront reality. We then need pro-growth policies to reinvigorate our economy. The government doesn’t sustainably “lift up” working families (or anyone else). Opportunities do. I agree with Gov Pritzker that it’s great we’ve received credit upgrades the last two years. This will lower our cost of borrowing which is currently the highest in the country amongst states. But let’s give a little credit where credit is due. Not sure it’s stable/sustainable.
Mar 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 One of the most important interviews you’ll read all year with @PhilipKHoward. On the problems, costs and conflicts of interest posed by public sector unions.

wsj.com/articles/the-p… 2/ A few excerpts… (A) on conflicted interests and bargaining disparities:
Mar 3, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The democratic socialists are having a moment in Chicago right now… With their preferred candidate in the mayoral runoff and some city council wins. So let me just say that socialism is one of the world’s laziest and most destructive ideologies. ImageImageImageImage Sorry, but they aren’t on the side of labor. This isn’t a fight for the working man. It’s a fight for power. An ideology that’s inherently anti-business fails to see the problem of what happens when businesses leave. Where is everyone going to work? The State can’t hire everyone.
Mar 3, 2023 • 16 tweets • 7 min read
1/ Arguably, the most important issue facing Chicago is the pension deficit. There's no way to tax our way out of this. We need growth plans. Vallas gets this. Johnson believes in "trickle down pension-omics." More tax $ for his CTU pals at the expense of a functioning city. Image 2/ Here's the summary of each candidate's plan. Johnson's tax ideas are indicative of zero understanding of how the economy works. Last time I checked, there's no wall around Chicago preventing anyone from leaving. Under Johson, we'll have higher tax rates and lower revenue. Image
Mar 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
So the same voters who overwhelmingly voted for Obama, Clinton, Biden and Lightfoot (just four years ago!)… are now racist because she proved to be ineffective? Not everything is always about race. If that’s the prism you see everything in, maybe the problem is with you. This framing is emblematic of the ideological decay on the far-left that I discuss in this essay. Some people find purpose in a naive or faux form of altruism that glorifies divisions and grievance where none really exist. Weird way to find meaning. stuartloren.substack.com/p/the-anti-soc…
Mar 2, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
What’s the point of policing or arresting when the prosecutorial and court system is driven by a destructive “social justice” philosophy? Everyone in Chicago should be outraged by this tragic death that never should have happened. Why are we erring on the side of criminality? This lenient approach to violent crime flies in the face of reason and increases the risk of harm to the public all so ideologically driven justice officials - whose job is to maintain safety - can pat themselves on the back for achieving equity in the law, whatever that means.
Mar 2, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
A CPD officer was tragically shot and killed tonight. These folks thanklessly put their lives on the line every day to keep us safe. Politicians who peddle in defund the police crap - which just further emboldens violent actors and demoralizes officers - are unfit to hold office. In case it’s not clear what politicians I’m referring to. Chicago mayoral candidate Brandon Johnson in his own words…

chicagotribune.com/politics/elect…
Feb 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Another good article by Aaron Brown in Bloomberg/Wash Post on deteriorating public pension issues, costs and mismanagement. Relevant for Illinois and Chicago. washingtonpost.com/business/energ… Here’s the key conclusion. At some point - maybe soon - these pensions systems will collapse and it will be up to taxpayers (federal and local) to pick up pieces, with creditors and beneficiaries likely never to receive the amounts they had planned for.
Feb 10, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Here’s a story that should get more attention. Unsustainable trends for government retirement / benefits programs. Stuff like pension and benefits reform is unpopular politically, but so would be far higher taxes and interest rates in the future. Or programs just getting cut. Image 2/ When these benefits programs were set up, people didn’t live as long and we had far more working-age people relative to retirees. Yea, people should have dignity in retirement, but they also should maybe work longer if living longer. And we should means-test benefits. Image
Dec 13, 2022 • 23 tweets • 8 min read
1/ I've argued ad nauseum for a more practical approach to public safety, business and public finance in #Chicago and #Illinois. But my sense is I'm mostly reaching people predisposed to my moderare to center-right views. So a brief thread for my #progressive friends on the #left 2/ I want to start out by saying that some of the smartest and nicest people I know identify as progressive. They are good people. They want good things. Yet I think many have a naive worldview and as a consequence don't appreciate the practicalities of achieving their aims.
Dec 13, 2022 • 18 tweets • 7 min read
1/ Commendable effort by @AldReilly to try blocking this. Per a 2019 change in law spearheaded by @chicagosmayor, Chicago can raise property taxes annually up to the percentage increase in the consumer price index (inflation) or 5% (whichever is less).

cbsnews.com/amp/chicago/ne… 2/ Taxpayers don’t have unlimited $ to fund fiscal largesse and pensions. Raising taxes seems cruel to do during an inflationary spike that’s hitting many households hard. Of course, there’s no automatic adjustment mechanism down if we ever have deflation…chicagobusiness.com/economy/inflat…
Dec 12, 2022 • 25 tweets • 10 min read
1/ Ok, so not how I envisioned spending some free time on a Sunday night. But this camaign commercial for @chicagosmayor (Lori Lightfoot) is so ridiculous, frustrating and full of falsehoods as to warrant a few critical comments.

H/T: @CPD1617Scanner

2/ As I've said before, my criticism of the mayor is not personal. I appreciate public service. Mayor Lightfoot was dealt a tough hand of cards. Would've been a challenge for anyone, but that's not an excuse for playing the hand poorly (or dishonestly).

Dec 10, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/ Feel bad for the workers impacted by Stellantis closing this plant in Belvidere, Illinois - some 1,350 people. Official reason for closure is rising production costs for electric vehicles.

reuters.com/business/autos… 2/ There is some truth to that. Per @BloombergNEF, battery costs have risen for the first time since 2010, but not materially. Rising commodity costs (lithium, cobalt, nickel) have made the material components in batteries more expensive.
Dec 7, 2022 • 28 tweets • 12 min read
1/ This is so abysmal that I had to actually read the Illinois Teacher's Retirement System acturial and valuation reports for the pension's FY 2022 (ending June 30). #Illinois #Pension #Crisis

Summary Report: trsil.org/financial/fina…

Full Report: trsil.org/financial/actu… 2/ Before discussing the TRS pension shortfall, a few things to keep in mind: The TRS unfunded pension liabilities are only a part of the IL state total, and Chicago is in it's own separate pension nightmare. Here are the 2020 figures from Bond Buyer (bondbuyer.com) Image
Dec 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Op-ed in the @FT from the managing partner at Pictet about the benefits of alternative assets and private equity in particular. I get the benefits of the private equity model and the author fairly described them. Good alignment between LPs and GPs.
ft.com/content/07324c… 2/ But I very much disagree with the opening...