Thread by @auonsson

Swedish prosecutor on Nord Stream:

"We know quite well what happened, how it was done, what equipment and type of large ship that presupposes. Explosives are unique. We can close some leads and confirm other leads. Hypothesis on state actor involvement is strengthening."

When asked about the Andromeda-lead (pro-Ukrainian group in sailboat) prosecutor Ljungquist gets very vague, confirms cooperation in some parts with German investigation but declines further comment.

State prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist said this in todays episode of "Gräns", radio show on national security on Swedish public service radio.

Full transcript in last tweets.

Full audio here.
sverigesradio.se/avsnitt/spelet…

Other tidbits from the show the includes:

A military teacher and previous combat diver questions the feasability of using a small sail boat, but believes it was a small group, for op sec reasons.

Phd of communication, specialized in RU media states how the general view in Russian regime-media is that the US/anglosaxians are behind the sabotage.

"The Ukraine-hypothesis is considered unserious. Russian media claims UA does not have competence, experience nor resources"

What i describe above is only part of the 29 minutes of content.

In coming tweets I have transcribed quotes by state prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist. In swedish.

"Analyserna av de beslag som har tagits upp från havsbotten och analyserna av vad som skett på platsen är i det närmaste klara. Det betyder ju också att vi utifrån det har en ganska god uppfattning om vad som har hänt och hur det här har gått till."

"Jag kan ju säga så mycket som att det där sprängämnet har en speciell sammansättning som det är möjligt att dra vissa slutsater ifrån."

"Utifrån vetskap om hur den här attacken bör ha gått till så säger det också någonting om hur utrustningen kan ha sett. Det vill säga vilken typ av utrustning, fartyg med mera som behövdes för att kunna genomföra det här. cont...

Det betyder ju att vi utifrån det både kan avföra vissa spår men också då på andra sät bekräfta andra delar."

Reporter nämner statlig aktör bakom.
"Ja, jag skulle vilja säga när det gäller den frågan så tycker jag snarast att den hypotesen har stärkts under resans gång. Men varför jag kan påstå det kan jag för närvarande inte säga någonting cont....

om för att det är en del av utredningen som är sekretessbelagd."

Reporter frågar om Andromeda-spår:
"Ja..., vi arbetar ju tillsammans med tyskarna, så mycket kan jag väl säga."

"Och jag har själv träffat den tyska åklagaren och den tyska utredningen tillsammans med min utredning. Men, mer än så kan jag kan inte säga. Vi arbetar tillsammans med det här ärendet just nu."

"Jag vill inte kommentera vad utredningen handlar om i grunden och jag vill inte heller kommentera den tyska utredningen, eeehh, av olika skäl. Jag kommenterar bara att vi jobbar tillsammans med tyskarna i delar och det är väl, ehm, så mycket man kan säga om det just nu."

My take: the words by prosecutor Ljungquist is about as vague on good grounds as yesterday's story pointing at Ukraine is concrete on loose grounds.

The difference: yesterdays story lacks public sources and a reasonable explanation (sail boat is not).
Todays story is from a named state representative, claiming that they can and will explain how.

The choice of words and avoidance of questions are also telling. Prosecutor Ljungquist uses the word "fartyg", see bing-search-pic for examples.
Further he confirms a state actor is the strong lead.
And he is very hesistant when asked about German investigation.

My guess: it is hard to comment when your German colleagues are barking up a dumb tree.

Most of you have never sailed on a sailboat. I'd like to continue this thread and try and illustrate the reality of "sail boat in the Baltics end of September 2022"

While the Baltics basically is a lake it is not that small, the wind is howling in Sep and waves are short period.

This is the wind speeds of Kökar Bogskär 18-28 Sep 2022. Location is not perfect, but close enough.

As you can see there was no storm, but plenty of wind.

In September South Baltics historically see waves of 3-8 meter maximum. I have not found exact stats for the period, but 10-20 m/s will produce significant waves.

helcom.fi/wp-content/upl…

So, what does this mean on a sailboat?

Let me illustrate it with this lady. She is preparing a baguette in calm conditions on a 40-foot sailboat. Boat is moving, which makes it more stable than than a stationary one.

Thanks youtube.com/@RyanSophieSai… for video. Heavily cut down.

Remember, the video above shows much better conditions than what a crew on Andromeda would have to endure in Sep 2022 outside Bornholm.

The conditions for Andromeda would be closer to what you see in this video

They would be handling hundreds (possibly tons?) of kg explosives, advanced heavy divers equipment etc.

Did you see the baguette fly? Replace with heavy equipment or explosives and you get the idea.

All the while trying to keep stationary in a boat that is not able to do so.

No, they can not anchor. They would need hundreds of meter of anchor chain, too much for the boat.

To get it up or down would require handling 80 m continually. 80 m of 8mm chain weighs about 150 kg.

Add the anchor, another 10-30 kg. Would you lift 175 kg of iron while your boat moves up and down in relation to anchor+chain 2-8 meter for each wave that passes? In the dark?

Without anchor? You could drive around maybe. Hoping you find your divers in between the waves.

And then the divers shall disembark a sailboat moving 2-8 meters up and down. With a bomb of x hundreds of kg.

Going up? Aim for the flimsy bathplatform moving 2-8 m in relation to your head. Embark on a ladder designed for sunbathing in flat seas. Easy peasy.

Any investigator who claims that the 50 foot sail boat Andromeda was the vessel central to the Nord Stream sabotage ops would have to explain away all of the above.

Maybe, maybe it could be used to ferry staff to a proper work boat, but even that would be sketchy in 10-20 m/s.

And yes, the German investigators are "certain" according to Spiegel. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord…

https://twitter.com/auonsson/status/1669244519529758720