There is an estimated 1 in 10k-100k years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks are coincidental.
Data is hard to get by but no matter which real data or reasonable assumption one picks it is very unlikely all 8 of them are explained by chance.
🧵 Illustration of a 1 in 108 908 years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks happens with present background levels. Above is 1 in 10 609 years illustrated.

Washington Post has again managed to find anon sources saying Russia is not doing bad things in the Baltic Sea.

They got the infographic quite wrong, so I fixed it.

They also have a named source, within mil intel, completely contradicting their headline.

Nice one WaPo!
Washington Post today presented a wholly incomplete infographics on Baltic Sea infrastructure incidents.

Actually damaged structures: 13, presented by WaPo as 4-5.

Actual # incidents: 4, WaPo found 3.

Here is the fix.

'If something were to happen Denmark might have to answer to why JAZZ was not boarded and inspected'

Experts agree: Denmark should inspect broken tanker JAZZ. No one thinks they will

Naval officer, maritime law scholar + analyst says 'Do it'

DK authorities: no reply. URL👇 Original link: danwatch.dk/skyggeskib-bro…
Archive-link: archive.is/0nGfY

Excited intel bots project:

Leading online authorities on shipping, @johnkonrad & @mercoglianos, are popular targets in the network of intel bots I am looking into.

Bots are mainly agreeing and praising, but sometimes seemingly nudging them in other direction. Hard to say from limited material. Some example posts:
1 Snarky
2 Strong agree
3 Poor bot cant sleep

In total the bots I found have posted or quoted John and Sal 69 times, but that is likely just a fraction of the total.

I have identified 28 bots targeting intel/mil/geopol/logistics/energy people. They reply, follow and quote and are most often very enthusiastic.

End game is unknown, but a guess is recruitment or information gathering. Maybe just influence.

Anyway, here they are, in network shape. Some of the texts the excited intel-bots produce and post to other users.

Will eventually be released in a more sane format.

This US Super Hercules transport landing in Denmark from US base Rota in Spain avoided French air space to Denmark. (But not *to* Rota)

Previous days it has visited among other places Rammstein, Aviano, Incirlik, Akrotiri.

What are you shipping around? Previous days, next tweet. 23 Rammstein, DE/US - Aviano, IT - Incirlik, TR
24 Incirlik, TR ? Akrotiri, CY ? Rammstein, DE/US
25 Rammstein, DE/US - Tartu, EE ? Vilnius, LV - Rammstein, DE/US MEDEVAC
26 Rammstein, DE/US - Rota, ES/US- Aalborg, DK

19-5945 / AE6960
globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae6960&l…

Russian underwater elite spy/sabotage division GUGI did an armed recon of Germany latest 266MW wind farm in October 2023.

They left after German coast guard ordered them to.

The ship in question, is the latest of GUGI and this was her maiden voyage.

This is one of the tidbits from a new documentary by @dwnews Shortly after sabotage ship Evgeniy Gorigledzhan surveyed a German submarine training area.

https://x.com/auonsson/status/1713878552456659194

Russian research vessel AKADEMIK MSTISLAV KELDYSH is on her way home to Kaliningrad.

Just as in Feb 24 she slowed down from her more common 9-10 knots to 5 as she passed the wind, power and submarine infrastrucure dense south Baltic Sea.

Speaking against shenanigans is the fact that no NATO vessel paid any interest. AIS-caveats apply. AKADEMIK MSTISLAV KELDYSH has managed some quite extensive miles of oceanography last year.

The Kaliningrad GPS/GNSS-jammer was likely fully turned off yesterday. That's a first since April -24.

Usually it starts each night, but since last Monday it ran 24/7. Then suddenly Sep 30 1300Z it got quiet.

Caveat: observations are few at night, still a completely new pattern Total number of observations. As you can see there are few during nights, but no change during the anomalous pattern.

Fertilizer ship RUBY is crossing into UK waters this second.

She is doing 7 knots towards Thames inlet. Bow in UK, stern on international waters!

After a lull since end of July the Kaliningrad GPS-jammer was tuned to a high power, 24/7 mode at the start of this work week.

Presumably RU Baltic forces judge drone attacks to be more probable. Or they want to annoy western aviation extra this week. The same effect, but illustrated by @lemonodor 's brilliant gpsjam.org

Sep 14 an attack on AIS caused the sanctioned Russian research vessel Akademik A Karpinskiy to briefly occur at port in Tallin, Estonia.

There is one faulty position displayed, indicating the attack was more likely radio-based or possibly on/from a single feeder. Vesselfinders view of the same data.

RUBY, infamous for repeating cycles of breaking down and working fine and ran out of Tromsö, NO on safety grounds, loaded with 20k tons ammonium nitrate is closing on heavily trafficked Dover Strait.

She has made good speed, straight course and precise turns last 36h.

Story is that her hull, rudder and propeller are broken to some extent and she needs repairs.

Her flag state is Malta and that is her stated destination. But Malta has signalled she wont even be allowed into territorial waters.

Estonian public service news @errnews claims that fertilizer ship RUBY is looking to dump its cargo of ammonium nitrate in the sea, citing NO maritime authority. @Sjofartsdir .

This is incorrect. RUBY is looking to unload. Src: direct contact.

err.ee/1609467730/nor… RUBY is still stationary at the entrance of Skagerak. Nothing is going on judging from AIS-replay. RUBY is drifting and assistant tug AMBER II is driving around, very slowly.

SE authorities are doing an inventory of which SE ports are able to unload fertilizer/bomb-ship RUBY.

Landskrona port of south Sweden have offered a ship to ship solution, ie away from populations.

Atm RUBY has no way to unload her 20k tons of NH4NO3, hence she is stationary. Pure guess work, but a ship to ship transfer would likely take place somewhere in Kattegatt, where it can happen in relatively calmer waters.

All info above is from direct contact with Landskrona port and article linked here.
sverigesradio.se/artikel/skadad…

Why do I care about bomb/fertilizer ship RUBY and why should you?

My profession is not shipping nor mil/intel. But my everyday work is doing risk-rewards analysis based on science and often incomplete data with high stakes cases.

Quite similar to RUBY-situation. Mini-thread. I find the likelyhood of RUBY being a Russian bomb plot very low and other risks (ecological, collision, etc) a bit higher.

But, the consequences if bomb plot is there and it went off in a city would be unfathomable. Including a large war.

Bomb/fertilizer ship RUBY look like she has lost propulsion. She broadcasts "Not under command" on AIS.

She is right outside Bergen, home to important naval base Haakonsvern and a large part of Norway's oil/marine/fishing industry. Very convenient.

Weather is super calm. Next to her is support tug AMBER II and a coast guard vessel KV BERGEN.

If engine is toast it is an excellent excuse to seek emergency shelter in another strategic hotspot.

RUBY, cargo ship loaded with 20k tons of potentially highly explosive ammonium nitrate, with a shady Russian backstory, is anchored on Norways northeast coast.

This is some of the surrounding installations around her. Positions appr.

Thought I'd illustrate list by @InaHPKvam

https://twitter.com/InaHPKvam/status/1834540774752481468

@InaHPKvam Damn, for being a gal making a few maps a day I really suck on east and west....

Fiction:

Things have gone south.

A 4 person Spetsnaz crew leave their cabin next to Ånderdalen national park, owned by a Cyprus LLC since 5 years. There is a convenient old harbour just below.

With a RIB it takes them only 20 min to meet up with "fertilizer ship" Ruby.



While "waiting for a storm" the crew of Ruby last days have been running the pumps to make ANFO, ammonium nitrate mixed with heavy fuel oil.

The detonators are in the RIB and Ruby is steaming north, destination Kiel where German govt has allowed repairs.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ANFO

Damaged fertilizer ship / floating bomb (depending on intentions) Ruby that got run out of Tromsø a week ago is:

A) Heading for Andöya military air/space base. ETA 5h

B) Have asked permission to go to Klaipėda, Lithuania for repairs.

From Russia with love.
WTH

https://twitter.com/auonsson/status/1831006384793522266

A: has no dry dock. Is maybe one of Norways most strategically important places. Also, 2500 inhabitants.

B: what? Was that the best option?

While, before and after unknown large drones were flying over special ops exercises and Swedens main airport yesterday the navigational aid SUOMEN LEIJONA had its AIS spoofed in an area 100 km to NW.

An area where drones been sighted before and ship-drone activity was suspected The nav aid is not spoofed perfectly, another MMSI is used and there is a typo in the name. Marinetraffic interprets both as "reference points" and "navaids". Usual AIS-caveats apply.