@pmolpmol lists three ships interesting as suspected drone carriers in last night attack on Copenhagen Airport.

In this thread, I will argue that Russian ship ASTROL 1 is an excellent fit.

Right time, right type, erratic track just before attack, highly suspicious background. Article that led me down this rabbit hole, by @pmolpmol nyheder.tv2.dk/live/krimi/202…

Copenhagen Airport is closed for operations because of drones in the air.

Northern Europes most busy airport. Plane diverting last minute.

A Russian brand new fishing boat is almost blocking Öresund strait.

They seemingly lost propulsion 4 hours ago, drifted north towards the very narrow channels (~300m) but seem to have anchored.

Swedish coast guard and police have been at scene.

AIS-caveats apply. A Russian brand new fishing boat is almost blocking Öresund strait.

They seemingly lost propulsion 4 hours ago, drifted north towards the very narrow channels (~300m) but seem to have anchored.

Swedish coast guard and police have been at scene.

AIS-caveats apply. Zoom in.

This is the main logistics hub for armaments into Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/chrisschmitz/status/1965542315696816398

Tanker (and hence fighters) inbound, Italian AEW&C inbound.

I thought I had found indications of a targeted GNSS jamming attack against president von der Leyen's aircraft this Sunday.

Then I disproved my own hypothesis. Here's how!

This is common for me, I usually don't show it because it takes a lot of effort to explain also 0-results Hypothesis: if vdLeyen-flight was jammed by a directional jammer other aircraft in the emission cone would also be affected

I got the idea upon looking at an animation by @lemonodor

Marked flight began reporting bad GPS-values just as the pilot of vdL reported issues over radio

Swedish island Gotland is completely without power, for the second time in two weeks.

Gotland is considered paramount to NATO control of Baltic Sea.

As far as I know last outage is still being analyzed and cause is not known.

svt.se/nyheter/lokalt… Power company now claims lightning strike as cause.

Article linked was updated.

Pilot of the aircraft carrying president von der Leyen experienced GPS issues as they approached Plovdiv airport, Bulgaria Sun Aug 31.

Recordings of tower and plane comms are clear.

Transponder reported good GPS-signal and is likely separate from the instrument pilots used. Half an hour after first reporting GPS-issues the aircraft of von der Leyen is taxiing on Plovdiv airport as the pilot repeats "we had GPS-issues" and thanks the flight controller for the support.

Full recordings with additional comms available at liveatc.net

The plane carrying EU top Ursula von der Leyen was forced to land manually after being hit by GPS/GNSS jamming.

News texts seem to indicate it was directed specifically at Von der Leyen and the airport Plovdiv.

"GPS around airport was knocked out for an hour."

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1962443585757831306

Stockholm-Helsinki ferry SILJA SERENADE made a sharp turn for unknown reasons night between Tu & We. Owner claims weather and collision avoidance. There were damages to loose items.

But there was no other ship on AIS, no sharp turn registered and weather was calm. Calm weather is substantiated by an anonymous maritime professional witness to YLE.

Heavy jamming? Malfunctions? Dark ship in the way? Submarine? Possible explanations are many but the one from the ferry company seem unfinished.

Tnx @akihheikkinen!

yle.fi/a/74-20178772

Russian destroyer Vice Admiral Kulakov fended of a drone threat Monday in Fehmarn Belt, Baltic Sea, Danish EEZ.

The large ship made evasive maneuvers, employed some anti-drone machine and manned and aimed lighter guns.

All according to local news: archive.is/G5kot DK Navy observed. Thanks anon follower.

Swedish maritime authority just posted maybe their most extensive interference warning to date.

Even radar is now seeing interference, besides more familiar GNSS, AIS and DGPS.

Radar is the single most important navigational aid on ships, particularly in cases of lost GPS/GNSS. Source:

And on the NAVTEX terminals. navvarn.sjofartsverket.se/Navigationsvar…

South Baltic sea is experiencing a newish type of GNSS-jamming. It is affecting units at sea level far and wide, much further than one ground based jammer can reach.

The most intense attack so far took place as the political elite of Denmark and 100k visitors met at Bornholm. Data for animation above is the signal levels that RINEX stations receive from various GNSS-constellations.
Last year a limited span of frequencies were affected. 2025 all frequencies/bands are affected. BeiDou, not illustrated (noisy).

The Bornholm station is used as example.

There is an estimated 1 in 10k-100k years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks are coincidental.
Data is hard to get by but no matter which real data or reasonable assumption one picks it is very unlikely all 8 of them are explained by chance.
🧵 Illustration of a 1 in 108 908 years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks happens with present background levels. Above is 1 in 10 609 years illustrated.

Washington Post has again managed to find anon sources saying Russia is not doing bad things in the Baltic Sea.

They got the infographic quite wrong, so I fixed it.

They also have a named source, within mil intel, completely contradicting their headline.

Nice one WaPo!
Washington Post today presented a wholly incomplete infographics on Baltic Sea infrastructure incidents.

Actually damaged structures: 13, presented by WaPo as 4-5.

Actual # incidents: 4, WaPo found 3.

Here is the fix.

'If something were to happen Denmark might have to answer to why JAZZ was not boarded and inspected'

Experts agree: Denmark should inspect broken tanker JAZZ. No one thinks they will

Naval officer, maritime law scholar + analyst says 'Do it'

DK authorities: no reply. URL👇 Original link: danwatch.dk/skyggeskib-bro…
Archive-link: archive.is/0nGfY

Excited intel bots project:

Leading online authorities on shipping, @johnkonrad & @mercoglianos, are popular targets in the network of intel bots I am looking into.

Bots are mainly agreeing and praising, but sometimes seemingly nudging them in other direction. Hard to say from limited material. Some example posts:
1 Snarky
2 Strong agree
3 Poor bot cant sleep

In total the bots I found have posted or quoted John and Sal 69 times, but that is likely just a fraction of the total.

I have identified 28 bots targeting intel/mil/geopol/logistics/energy people. They reply, follow and quote and are most often very enthusiastic.

End game is unknown, but a guess is recruitment or information gathering. Maybe just influence.

Anyway, here they are, in network shape. Some of the texts the excited intel-bots produce and post to other users.

Will eventually be released in a more sane format.

This US Super Hercules transport landing in Denmark from US base Rota in Spain avoided French air space to Denmark. (But not *to* Rota)

Previous days it has visited among other places Rammstein, Aviano, Incirlik, Akrotiri.

What are you shipping around? Previous days, next tweet. 23 Rammstein, DE/US - Aviano, IT - Incirlik, TR
24 Incirlik, TR ? Akrotiri, CY ? Rammstein, DE/US
25 Rammstein, DE/US - Tartu, EE ? Vilnius, LV - Rammstein, DE/US MEDEVAC
26 Rammstein, DE/US - Rota, ES/US- Aalborg, DK

19-5945 / AE6960
globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae6960&l…

Russian underwater elite spy/sabotage division GUGI did an armed recon of Germany latest 266MW wind farm in October 2023.

They left after German coast guard ordered them to.

The ship in question, is the latest of GUGI and this was her maiden voyage.

This is one of the tidbits from a new documentary by @dwnews Shortly after sabotage ship Evgeniy Gorigledzhan surveyed a German submarine training area.

https://x.com/auonsson/status/1713878552456659194

Russian research vessel AKADEMIK MSTISLAV KELDYSH is on her way home to Kaliningrad.

Just as in Feb 24 she slowed down from her more common 9-10 knots to 5 as she passed the wind, power and submarine infrastrucure dense south Baltic Sea.

Speaking against shenanigans is the fact that no NATO vessel paid any interest. AIS-caveats apply. AKADEMIK MSTISLAV KELDYSH has managed some quite extensive miles of oceanography last year.

Finnish MOD has signed a €48 million contract for resilient navigation systems (inertial nav it seems) with French company Safran.

The St Petersburg and Kaliningrad jammer comes to mind as likely reasons.

https://twitter.com/koskela_antti/status/1844010126153339088

Safran has coined the very fitting hashtag #navwar which I might introduce in my posts.