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auonsson Profile picture
auonsson
@auonsson
Main account: https://t.co/TjSuNxrK31 Pseudonymous osint. Every system is a sensor if you hold it right. Trying to limit myself to Baltics. 🇸🇪
5 subscribers
Jul 2 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Swedish maritime authority just posted maybe their most extensive interference warning to date.

Even radar is now seeing interference, besides more familiar GNSS, AIS and DGPS.

Radar is the single most important navigational aid on ships, particularly in cases of lost GPS/GNSS. Image Source:

And on the NAVTEX terminals. navvarn.sjofartsverket.se/Navigationsvar…Image
Jun 29 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
South Baltic sea is experiencing a newish type of GNSS-jamming. It is affecting units at sea level far and wide, much further than one ground based jammer can reach.

The most intense attack so far took place as the political elite of Denmark and 100k visitors met at Bornholm. Data for animation above is the signal levels that RINEX stations receive from various GNSS-constellations.
Last year a limited span of frequencies were affected. 2025 all frequencies/bands are affected. BeiDou, not illustrated (noisy).

The Bornholm station is used as example. Image
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Feb 15 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
There is an estimated 1 in 10k-100k years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks are coincidental.
Data is hard to get by but no matter which real data or reasonable assumption one picks it is very unlikely all 8 of them are explained by chance.
🧵 Image Illustration of a 1 in 108 908 years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks happens with present background levels. Above is 1 in 10 609 years illustrated. Image
Jan 19 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Washington Post has again managed to find anon sources saying Russia is not doing bad things in the Baltic Sea.

They got the infographic quite wrong, so I fixed it.

They also have a named source, within mil intel, completely contradicting their headline.

Nice one WaPo! Image
Image Washington Post today presented a wholly incomplete infographics on Baltic Sea infrastructure incidents.

Actually damaged structures: 13, presented by WaPo as 4-5.

Actual # incidents: 4, WaPo found 3.

Here is the fix. Image
Jan 14 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
'If something were to happen Denmark might have to answer to why JAZZ was not boarded and inspected'

Experts agree: Denmark should inspect broken tanker JAZZ. No one thinks they will

Naval officer, maritime law scholar + analyst says 'Do it'

DK authorities: no reply. URL👇 Image Original link: danwatch.dk/skyggeskib-bro…
Archive-link: archive.is/0nGfY
Nov 4, 2024 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Excited intel bots project:

Leading online authorities on shipping, @johnkonrad & @mercoglianos, are popular targets in the network of intel bots I am looking into.

Bots are mainly agreeing and praising, but sometimes seemingly nudging them in other direction. Hard to say from limited material.Image Some example posts:
1 Snarky
2 Strong agree
3 Poor bot cant sleep

In total the bots I found have posted or quoted John and Sal 69 times, but that is likely just a fraction of the total. Image
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Nov 2, 2024 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
I have identified 28 bots targeting intel/mil/geopol/logistics/energy people. They reply, follow and quote and are most often very enthusiastic.

End game is unknown, but a guess is recruitment or information gathering. Maybe just influence.

Anyway, here they are, in network shape.Image Some of the texts the excited intel-bots produce and post to other users.

Will eventually be released in a more sane format.
Oct 26, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This US Super Hercules transport landing in Denmark from US base Rota in Spain avoided French air space to Denmark. (But not *to* Rota)

Previous days it has visited among other places Rammstein, Aviano, Incirlik, Akrotiri.

What are you shipping around? Previous days, next tweet.Image 23 Rammstein, DE/US - Aviano, IT - Incirlik, TR
24 Incirlik, TR ? Akrotiri, CY ? Rammstein, DE/US
25 Rammstein, DE/US - Tartu, EE ? Vilnius, LV - Rammstein, DE/US MEDEVAC
26 Rammstein, DE/US - Rota, ES/US- Aalborg, DK

19-5945 / AE6960
globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae6960&l…Image
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Oct 23, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Russian underwater elite spy/sabotage division GUGI did an armed recon of Germany latest 266MW wind farm in October 2023.

They left after German coast guard ordered them to.

The ship in question, is the latest of GUGI and this was her maiden voyage.

This is one of the tidbits from a new documentary by @dwnewsImage Shortly after sabotage ship Evgeniy Gorigledzhan surveyed a German submarine training area.

Oct 14, 2024 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Russian research vessel AKADEMIK MSTISLAV KELDYSH is on her way home to Kaliningrad.

Just as in Feb 24 she slowed down from her more common 9-10 knots to 5 as she passed the wind, power and submarine infrastrucure dense south Baltic Sea.

Speaking against shenanigans is the fact that no NATO vessel paid any interest. AIS-caveats apply.Image AKADEMIK MSTISLAV KELDYSH has managed some quite extensive miles of oceanography last year. Image
Oct 9, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Finnish MOD has signed a €48 million contract for resilient navigation systems (inertial nav it seems) with French company Safran.

The St Petersburg and Kaliningrad jammer comes to mind as likely reasons. Safran has coined the very fitting hashtag #navwar which I might introduce in my posts. Image
Image
Oct 2, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Kaliningrad GPS/GNSS-jammer was likely fully turned off yesterday. That's a first since April -24.

Usually it starts each night, but since last Monday it ran 24/7. Then suddenly Sep 30 1300Z it got quiet.

Caveat: observations are few at night, still a completely new pattern Image Total number of observations. As you can see there are few during nights, but no change during the anomalous pattern. Image
Oct 2, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Finlands institute of land survey was unable to do a yearly scanning of southeast Finland this summer, because of GPS/GNSS-jamming.

They use planes, GNSS-positioning and laser scanning to make an inventory and 3D-model of fields and forest. Losses are estimated to €-millions. Image The institute is looking to develop a real time system of GNSS-jamming in order to be able to continue their tasks.

I have offered my system, which can do that (for areas where there is air traffic + ADSB-coverage). Thanks to @live_airplanes <3

hs.fi/suomi/art-2000…
Sep 29, 2024 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Fertilizer ship RUBY is crossing into UK waters this second.

She is doing 7 knots towards Thames inlet. Image Bow in UK, stern on international waters! Image
Sep 29, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
After a lull since end of July the Kaliningrad GPS-jammer was tuned to a high power, 24/7 mode at the start of this work week.

Presumably RU Baltic forces judge drone attacks to be more probable. Or they want to annoy western aviation extra this week. Image The same effect, but illustrated by @lemonodor 's brilliant gpsjam.org

Image
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Sep 26, 2024 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
RUBY saga.

A collection of threads I made on damaged fertilizer ship RUBY. There are many. With many details. Enjoy!

First thread, made possible since the ever present keen eye of @BarentsNews and @NilsenThomas found out about it.

RUBY visiting the bay outside Andöya Air and Space base.
Sep 25, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Sep 14 an attack on AIS caused the sanctioned Russian research vessel Akademik A Karpinskiy to briefly occur at port in Tallin, Estonia.

There is one faulty position displayed, indicating the attack was more likely radio-based or possibly on/from a single feeder. Image Vesselfinders view of the same data. Image
Sep 25, 2024 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
RUBY, infamous for repeating cycles of breaking down and working fine and ran out of Tromsö, NO on safety grounds, loaded with 20k tons ammonium nitrate is closing on heavily trafficked Dover Strait.

She has made good speed, straight course and precise turns last 36h.
Image
Image Story is that her hull, rudder and propeller are broken to some extent and she needs repairs.

Her flag state is Malta and that is her stated destination. But Malta has signalled she wont even be allowed into territorial waters. Image
Sep 23, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Estonian public service news @errnews claims that fertilizer ship RUBY is looking to dump its cargo of ammonium nitrate in the sea, citing NO maritime authority. @Sjofartsdir .

This is incorrect. RUBY is looking to unload. Src: direct contact.

err.ee/1609467730/nor… RUBY is still stationary at the entrance of Skagerak. Nothing is going on judging from AIS-replay. RUBY is drifting and assistant tug AMBER II is driving around, very slowly. Image
Sep 21, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
SE authorities are doing an inventory of which SE ports are able to unload fertilizer/bomb-ship RUBY.

Landskrona port of south Sweden have offered a ship to ship solution, ie away from populations.

Atm RUBY has no way to unload her 20k tons of NH4NO3, hence she is stationary. Image Pure guess work, but a ship to ship transfer would likely take place somewhere in Kattegatt, where it can happen in relatively calmer waters.

All info above is from direct contact with Landskrona port and article linked here.
sverigesradio.se/artikel/skadad…
Sep 20, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Why do I care about bomb/fertilizer ship RUBY and why should you?

My profession is not shipping nor mil/intel. But my everyday work is doing risk-rewards analysis based on science and often incomplete data with high stakes cases.

Quite similar to RUBY-situation. Mini-thread. Image I find the likelyhood of RUBY being a Russian bomb plot very low and other risks (ecological, collision, etc) a bit higher.

But, the consequences if bomb plot is there and it went off in a city would be unfathomable. Including a large war. Image