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Markus Jonsson Profile picture
Markus Jonsson
@auonsson
Pseudonymous osint. Every system is a sensor if you hold it right. Trying to limit myself to Baltics. https://t.co/dzlz8yLV6f backup 🇸🇪
A. T. ✙ 🇺🇦🇪🇺🇫🇮 Profile picture John Martin Profile picture 2 subscribed
Apr 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Confirmation bias beware, but with last weeks news on shadow fleets in Baltics and EU-level talks, I wonder if something is brewing...

Just now DE coastguard and DK navy has taken up shadowing of a tanker last seen in/next to naval docks of Baltiysk, Kaliningrad. Dest: Egypt en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmat…
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Apr 17 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The Latvian ship Zircone, suspected of breaking Russian sanction and posing an environmental threat to Baltic Sea has during last 36h been inspected by SE fighter jets, coast guard and navy.

All the while continuing her activities.

I suppose SE state is building a case.
Five days ago Greenpeace activists wrote

"OIL FUELS WAR PEOPLE WANT PEACE"

on the side of the tanker.

Some days before that the suspected sanctions rounding practice was big news in Sweden and ministers promised action.

greenpeace.org/sweden/artikla…
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Apr 6 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.

5th proof, 3rd method.

This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are. Surely over 9000.

@PajalaJussi computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, heatmapped. Image The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad. 5th proof, 3rd method.

This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are.

@PajalaJussi computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, all 10x10km cells. Image
Mar 30 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.

The Baltic Jammer is a Russian GPS jammer that since Dec -23 has affected the navigation of 1000's of civilian & military aircraft.

Old method, new dataset, even more obvious.

Finally, data to disprove me. Thread 🧵 Image These maps depict density of radio horizons calculated from the first positions where 11496 aircrafts lost navigation from Feb to now. Altitude based method.

Below more zoom levels. There is no longer any doubt in my mind. The Jammer is in Kaliningrad, I believe at the coast.
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Mar 24 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Baltic Jammer has been running for 47 consecutive hours making this the longest run ever.

Red dots show affected area. Yesterday at 22:00Z it changed into a new configuration, green dots.

1614 unique airplanes affected, most of them civilian airliners. Image Green dot map show the new configuration fully focused on almost exlusively Polish controlled airspace (Warzawa FIR), leaving a nice clear corridor for Kaliningrad-flights. Image
Mar 18 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Today the Baltic Jammer changed. Starting with normal characteristic yesterday, after running for ~11h 0720Z there was a sudden change in area affected.

A NW sector of about 140°-180° is spared from GPS-jamming since then. It has made the problem almost exclusively Polish. Still images of the periods before and after 0720 this morning. Each dot is a message of NIC 1-6 (low GPS quality).

The Estonia area is another jamming process, with other temporality/spatiality. It is almost always on.
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Image
Mar 16 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Last 46 hours Baltic Jammer has been running in south Baltics.

At least 873 unique aircrafts has had their navigation equipment jammed. Each one a passenger jet filled with civilians.

E.g. Ryanairs SP-RKS has been without GPS for at least 2 hours going in and out of Vilnius. Image SP-RKS's routes and top 43 planes with longest periods affected.
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Jan 29 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Baltic Jammer/strange phenomenon started.

Much stats for various regions, thread.

Count (last 36h) or percentage of aircrafts (last 76h) reporting low navigational accuracy (NIC 1-6) via their transponders.

First, a combined plot of counts, last 36 hours. Europe, top dog. Image For background, see previous posts.
Jan 17 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Baltic Jammer investigation: metrics.

Thread. Image To detect aircrafts having their GPS/GNSS jammed I have used the accuracy value NIC, and as a cutoff chosen 1-6 for individual flights. This has worked well and managed to find confirmed jammed flights.

But, the last days I have found suspiciously widespread results with this. Image
Jan 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Tonight the Baltic Jammer reaches in over Denmark and one of Northern Europes most busiest airpost, Kastrup.*

It turned on at 21:17Z today.

It took some warming up (literally maybe?) but after 36 minutes it was affecting about 40% of all flights. It might have had effects as far as Denmark before, but we have not had the data.

These are positions affected, in percent.
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Image
Jan 4 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
I found the location of the Baltic Jammer causing flights to lose position, again.

Kaliningrad, Poland (or Denmark). Pick your suspect.

With a new, larger dataset and more refined method I have replicated my results from yesterday.

Data only from when jammer has been active.
Image A kind anonymous follower gave me data from their own receiver for Dec 8 to Jan 3.
Coverage is still limited but a completely different source. 57'593 observations was included.
Jan 3 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
I think I found the location of the Baltic Jammer. In Kaliningrad, Russia.

Since Dec 15 aircrafts have suffered from navigation errors over south Baltic Sea, on and off.

By plotting an assumed max jamming-range for each bad position there is one area standing out: Kaliningrad. Image Looking at 6 hour periods of maximum intensity is showing very similar results as the whole period.

The aircrafts jammed on average have Kaliningrad in common spatially.

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Jan 1 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Baltic GPS-jam has continued with New Years eve showing the largest area so far caught by method.*

Dec 26 saw more numerous bad positions reported but the area yesterday was larger. @rundradion 's observations also indicate a larger area than known so far.

Video: hex's by count
The video shows 12 hour count of bad signals (NIC 1-6) for respective hexagon. More red corresponds roughly to more affected aircrafts.
Dec 27, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
South Baltic GNSS/GPS-interference got even worse.

40% of flights in area pictured report nav problems.

Possible xplanations:

Polish military exercise?

Solar effects? (I made a mistake the last two days)
Image John made todays discovery. He is the coder of the site and has not seen solar cause this before.
Dec 24, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
There are rumours/news about a nuclear icebreaker on fire in northern Russia.

In Murmansk nuclear icebreakers (sic) Sevmorput AND Sibir are docked abreast.

~30 minutes ago two small tugs arrived at high speed. They are pulling Sibir away.

This might be the fire. Image Senior reference for anything northern/hybrid/naval:

Dec 23, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Russian airline industry is collapsing because of sanctions, according to Ukrainian (and Russian) authorities.

Data from @adsbex supports this claim. Number of aircrafts in the air is slowly sinking, total flighthours is plummeting.

Dec 2023 vs Dec 2022: down to 1/3 activity Image Looking at the top 4 aircraft families (81% of all hours) is showing the same patterns. Similar amount of planes are flying much less.

Interestingly, also the Russian SU 95 is affected. Not only that, even though they are numerous they are not flying as much as west models. Image
Dec 19, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
CS Decisive of US Cable Security Fleet is operating from Djibouti and northeast-wards since Dec 11, presumably controlling or maintaining a submarine cable (or laying one?).

Area is very close to recent shipping attacks/piracy and concentration of naval forces. No cable in chart
Image
Image Chart view, with track. Image
Dec 5, 2023 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Russian state owned subsea work vessel Igor Ilyin is working above Nord Stream 2 since September.

She started working close to NS2 landing site south of Ust-Luga early September and has since generally moved outwards. A few days ago she started working outside the Russian EEZ. Image Close up of end points of tracks. Tracks presented in post above are from Sep 12 to Dec 5 2023.
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Nov 23, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I went through 1.7 million AIS-messages from a 2023 Danish data set. There were no signs of GPS-interference. (With this method.)

Yesterday a Polish virtual AtoN (nav-aid) "moved" outside Gdansk and reportedly it has moved twice last month, hence my interest. Image The AtoNs I analyzed were all at fixed positions and stated they used GPS for getting their position. The Polish one that moved is a virtual AtoN and as such does not get its position from GPS (I think).

This makes the irregularity more likely to be a software error (or attack).
Nov 12, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Nord Stream hypothesises

Russian state ships
Support: official statements by DK Armed forces, radiotraffic, AIS-data, satellite images, statements by named officers.

Sailboat
Support: anonymous sources, a few receipts and traces of explosives on a toilet.

Links👇🏻 Guardian article based on nordic sources placing Russian state-owned SS-750 subsurface work vessel at site 4 days before explosion. Confirmed by DK officials.

theguardian.com/world/2023/apr…
Nov 5, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Kaliningrad Express visualized.

Last week Russia has flown at least 28 (or 14 if you will) flights to/from Kaliningrad.

Jury is out on what's shipped, most think the cargo is outbound Kaliningrad. Troops and equipments or S-400 air defence has been suggested. Ukraine? (Syria?) No matter what or where, it is a lot of used capacity. About 1'500 tons.

And its many times over normal levels.