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auonsson Profile picture
auonsson
@auonsson
Pseudonymous osint. Every system is a sensor if you hold it right. Trying to limit myself to Baltics. https://t.co/dzlz8yLV6f backup 🇸🇪
A. T. ✙ 🇺🇦🇪🇺🇫🇮 Profile picture Stephan Wienczny Profile picture John Martin Profile picture CRAlmanack Profile picture 5 subscribed
Sep 25 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Sep 14 an attack on AIS caused the sanctioned Russian research vessel Akademik A Karpinskiy to briefly occur at port in Tallin, Estonia.

There is one faulty position displayed, indicating the attack was more likely radio-based or possibly on/from a single feeder. Image Vesselfinders view of the same data. Image
Sep 25 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
RUBY, infamous for repeating cycles of breaking down and working fine and ran out of Tromsö, NO on safety grounds, loaded with 20k tons ammonium nitrate is closing on heavily trafficked Dover Strait.

She has made good speed, straight course and precise turns last 36h.
Image
Image Story is that her hull, rudder and propeller are broken to some extent and she needs repairs.

Her flag state is Malta and that is her stated destination. But Malta has signalled she wont even be allowed into territorial waters. Image
Sep 23 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Estonian public service news @errnews claims that fertilizer ship RUBY is looking to dump its cargo of ammonium nitrate in the sea, citing NO maritime authority. @Sjofartsdir .

This is incorrect. RUBY is looking to unload. Src: direct contact.

err.ee/1609467730/nor… RUBY is still stationary at the entrance of Skagerak. Nothing is going on judging from AIS-replay. RUBY is drifting and assistant tug AMBER II is driving around, very slowly. Image
Sep 21 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
SE authorities are doing an inventory of which SE ports are able to unload fertilizer/bomb-ship RUBY.

Landskrona port of south Sweden have offered a ship to ship solution, ie away from populations.

Atm RUBY has no way to unload her 20k tons of NH4NO3, hence she is stationary. Image Pure guess work, but a ship to ship transfer would likely take place somewhere in Kattegatt, where it can happen in relatively calmer waters.

All info above is from direct contact with Landskrona port and article linked here.
sverigesradio.se/artikel/skadad…
Sep 20 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Why do I care about bomb/fertilizer ship RUBY and why should you?

My profession is not shipping nor mil/intel. But my everyday work is doing risk-rewards analysis based on science and often incomplete data with high stakes cases.

Quite similar to RUBY-situation. Mini-thread. Image I find the likelyhood of RUBY being a Russian bomb plot very low and other risks (ecological, collision, etc) a bit higher.

But, the consequences if bomb plot is there and it went off in a city would be unfathomable. Including a large war. Image
Sep 18 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Bomb/fertilizer ship RUBY look like she has lost propulsion. She broadcasts "Not under command" on AIS.

She is right outside Bergen, home to important naval base Haakonsvern and a large part of Norway's oil/marine/fishing industry. Very convenient.

Weather is super calm. Image Next to her is support tug AMBER II and a coast guard vessel KV BERGEN.

If engine is toast it is an excellent excuse to seek emergency shelter in another strategic hotspot. Image
Sep 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
RUBY, cargo ship loaded with 20k tons of potentially highly explosive ammonium nitrate, with a shady Russian backstory, is anchored on Norways northeast coast.

This is some of the surrounding installations around her. Positions appr.

Thought I'd illustrate list by @InaHPKvam
Image @InaHPKvam Damn, for being a gal making a few maps a day I really suck on east and west....
Sep 12 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Fiction:

Things have gone south.

A 4 person Spetsnaz crew leave their cabin next to Ånderdalen national park, owned by a Cyprus LLC since 5 years. There is a convenient old harbour just below.

With a RIB it takes them only 20 min to meet up with "fertilizer ship" Ruby.

Image
Image
Image While "waiting for a storm" the crew of Ruby last days have been running the pumps to make ANFO, ammonium nitrate mixed with heavy fuel oil.

The detonators are in the RIB and Ruby is steaming north, destination Kiel where German govt has allowed repairs.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ANFO
Sep 11 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Damaged fertilizer ship / floating bomb (depending on intentions) Ruby that got run out of Tromsø a week ago is:

A) Heading for Andöya military air/space base. ETA 5h

B) Have asked permission to go to Klaipėda, Lithuania for repairs.

From Russia with love.
WTH
Image A: has no dry dock. Is maybe one of Norways most strategically important places. Also, 2500 inhabitants.

B: what? Was that the best option? Image
Sep 9 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
While, before and after unknown large drones were flying over special ops exercises and Swedens main airport yesterday the navigational aid SUOMEN LEIJONA had its AIS spoofed in an area 100 km to NW.

An area where drones been sighted before and ship-drone activity was suspected Image The nav aid is not spoofed perfectly, another MMSI is used and there is a typo in the name. Marinetraffic interprets both as "reference points" and "navaids". Usual AIS-caveats apply.
Sep 3 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
A cargo vessel carrying 20k tons of Russian ammonium nitrate (Beirut explosion was from 2.7kt) has sought refuge under unclear circumstances in Tromsø, N Norway.

Police is investigating and has ordered the ship to leave.
6 hours ago a navy frigate docked alongside the ship.
Image Looking at the track of Ruby they did experience a storm a week ago, found calmer waters and then moved into Tromsø port under own power.

Tromsø is the main arctic Norwegian town, housing a university, the only full hospital of the region and an important air port. Image
Aug 12 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
New Gulf of Finland spoofing detected.

As by a miracle the new spoofing location corresponds to where I found the jammer the other day.

And no, it is not trivial to say spoof or jam. See below for my localization. My method for finding jammed airplanes actually finds plane that state ”degraded navigation accuracy/integrity” which in reality also might be an effect of spoofing.

Anyway, my localization:

Jul 20 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
A few minutes ago two large warships escorted by a Danish Navy patrol boat entered Baltic Sea. Chinese?

Will try and id, happy for help! Closer photos below.

They are possibly in company with a Gabon-flagged tanker destined for Russia, started in India. 2 unknown warships entering Baltic Sea at the moment.
The second one looks especially interesting, and easy to ID because of its odd shapes.


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Jun 1 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Last month ships and ground stations in S Baltic Sea has been hit by at least 6 extensive GPS/GNSS-interference sessions, covering surface and ground.

Potentially much more serious than the jamming of planes, because our critical infrastructure depends on GPS-time.

🧵 Image This is Baltic Jamming S02E01

Above you can see the sofar worst hit week on a map. Here, the same data in plots.

First, all stations (selection), showing signal to noise ratio vs day. Low SNR is trouble. Numbers are verified with another source. Image
May 31 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Kaliningrad jammer (formerly known as Baltic Jammer) is off.

It is quite uncommon. It has been running like clockwork last 2 months, each night starting around 2030-2130Z. (except Apr 29 when it was late)

Pictured are plots of last 30 and 7 days activity: % bad nav values.
Image
Image For people new to the channel: Kaliningrad jammer is a Russian electronic warfare machine that since Dec 15 have interfered with navigation (GPS) of planes over South Baltics on an almost daily basis.
May 24 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
My account has been infested with some odd strategy/geopol/security/intel-bots. See below.

We shall: Image
May 22 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Russia wants Finland to say this:

"We stay calm"

At least if we look at the bots/operatives that have started commeting on my posts last days.

All registered around the same time, all praising me in AI-esque prose, all friends 2 pornbots

@akihheikkinen @kautoh @CorporalFrisk
Image
Image I have identified seven more. The bots/operatives have handles indicating strategy, osint and security-interest. They are propably a new but not very subtle strategy aimed at cosing up to accounts such as mine.
Apr 29 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.

This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.

Further, a drone-based method supports it.🧵 Image The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia.

This can be shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.

Further, a drone-based method supports it. Image
Apr 22 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Confirmation bias beware, but with last weeks news on shadow fleets in Baltics and EU-level talks, I wonder if something is brewing...

Just now DE coastguard and DK navy has taken up shadowing of a tanker last seen in/next to naval docks of Baltiysk, Kaliningrad. Dest: Egypt en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmat…
Image
Apr 17 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
The Latvian ship Zircone, suspected of breaking Russian sanction and posing an environmental threat to Baltic Sea has during last 36h been inspected by SE fighter jets, coast guard and navy.

All the while continuing her activities.

I suppose SE state is building a case.
Five days ago Greenpeace activists wrote

"OIL FUELS WAR PEOPLE WANT PEACE"

on the side of the tanker.

Some days before that the suspected sanctions rounding practice was big news in Sweden and ministers promised action.

greenpeace.org/sweden/artikla…
Image
Apr 6 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad.

5th proof, 3rd method.

This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are. Surely over 9000.

@PajalaJussi computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, heatmapped. Image The Baltic Jammer is in Kaliningrad. 5th proof, 3rd method.

This time with numbers on likelyhood. We just need a statistician to tell us how sure we are.

@PajalaJussi computed how many radio horizons of first jammed plane intersect. Here, all 10x10km cells. Image