4 days ago Baltic States + UK wrote a letter interpreted as "Baltic Sea closing for shadow fleet".

No sanctioned tanker has arrived since (unusual*) but coming 24-36h the claim will get its first test with 5 sanctioned tankers inbound.

https://twitter.com/auonsson/status/2016282879999836439

* It is unusual to not see daily sanctioned tanker arrive to Baltic Sea, usually a few each day.

But, the last 4 days lull ismight be explained by weather: Atlantic storms, low temperature and an increasingly frozen Gulf of Finland.

Underappreciated fact:

The paths and positions of the cable damages around New Years 2026 were to most of Estonia's internet backbone routes.

Had it fully succeeded/happened by accident (lol) Estonia would have been left with a crippled connectivity.

I just deleted a post where I had misread a press release.

5 cables have been damaged, but 3 of those from storm conditions. I might not have been that wrong.

There is a SE-EE incident and a FI-EE incident.

The SE-FI is described as two breaks on the same cable last I read.

As per usual the details, allusions and contexts are vague in news and statements.

Russian logistics ship ADLER is at anchor IN Sweden.

Possibly broken down. Usually runs heavy weapons to Russian bases in Africa / Middle East.

Was inspected by military aircraft 2h ago. Swedish Coast Guard just arrived to area.

Tnx @butafly over at the better site. @butafly Coast Guard patrol is about to dock in Höganäs, port a few kms south.

Here they will likely pick up more staff for whatever they plan.

Guess: Nationella Insatsstyrkan or something similar. NI are police, but carry proper guns. Or, a cadre of really nitpicky bureaucrats =)

@pmolpmol lists three ships interesting as suspected drone carriers in last night attack on Copenhagen Airport.

In this thread, I will argue that Russian ship ASTROL 1 is an excellent fit.

Right time, right type, erratic track just before attack, highly suspicious background. Article that led me down this rabbit hole, by @pmolpmol nyheder.tv2.dk/live/krimi/202…

Copenhagen Airport is closed for operations because of drones in the air.

Northern Europes most busy airport. Plane diverting last minute.

A Russian brand new fishing boat is almost blocking Öresund strait.

They seemingly lost propulsion 4 hours ago, drifted north towards the very narrow channels (~300m) but seem to have anchored.

Swedish coast guard and police have been at scene.

AIS-caveats apply. A Russian brand new fishing boat is almost blocking Öresund strait.

They seemingly lost propulsion 4 hours ago, drifted north towards the very narrow channels (~300m) but seem to have anchored.

Swedish coast guard and police have been at scene.

AIS-caveats apply. Zoom in.

This is the main logistics hub for armaments into Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/chrisschmitz/status/1965542315696816398

Tanker (and hence fighters) inbound, Italian AEW&C inbound.

I thought I had found indications of a targeted GNSS jamming attack against president von der Leyen's aircraft this Sunday.

Then I disproved my own hypothesis. Here's how!

This is common for me, I usually don't show it because it takes a lot of effort to explain also 0-results Hypothesis: if vdLeyen-flight was jammed by a directional jammer other aircraft in the emission cone would also be affected

I got the idea upon looking at an animation by @lemonodor

Marked flight began reporting bad GPS-values just as the pilot of vdL reported issues over radio

Swedish island Gotland is completely without power, for the second time in two weeks.

Gotland is considered paramount to NATO control of Baltic Sea.

As far as I know last outage is still being analyzed and cause is not known.

svt.se/nyheter/lokalt… Power company now claims lightning strike as cause.

Article linked was updated.

Pilot of the aircraft carrying president von der Leyen experienced GPS issues as they approached Plovdiv airport, Bulgaria Sun Aug 31.

Recordings of tower and plane comms are clear.

Transponder reported good GPS-signal and is likely separate from the instrument pilots used. Half an hour after first reporting GPS-issues the aircraft of von der Leyen is taxiing on Plovdiv airport as the pilot repeats "we had GPS-issues" and thanks the flight controller for the support.

Full recordings with additional comms available at liveatc.net

The plane carrying EU top Ursula von der Leyen was forced to land manually after being hit by GPS/GNSS jamming.

News texts seem to indicate it was directed specifically at Von der Leyen and the airport Plovdiv.

"GPS around airport was knocked out for an hour."

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1962443585757831306

Stockholm-Helsinki ferry SILJA SERENADE made a sharp turn for unknown reasons night between Tu & We. Owner claims weather and collision avoidance. There were damages to loose items.

But there was no other ship on AIS, no sharp turn registered and weather was calm. Calm weather is substantiated by an anonymous maritime professional witness to YLE.

Heavy jamming? Malfunctions? Dark ship in the way? Submarine? Possible explanations are many but the one from the ferry company seem unfinished.

Tnx @akihheikkinen!

yle.fi/a/74-20178772

Russian destroyer Vice Admiral Kulakov fended of a drone threat Monday in Fehmarn Belt, Baltic Sea, Danish EEZ.

The large ship made evasive maneuvers, employed some anti-drone machine and manned and aimed lighter guns.

All according to local news: archive.is/G5kot DK Navy observed. Thanks anon follower.

Swedish maritime authority just posted maybe their most extensive interference warning to date.

Even radar is now seeing interference, besides more familiar GNSS, AIS and DGPS.

Radar is the single most important navigational aid on ships, particularly in cases of lost GPS/GNSS. Source:

And on the NAVTEX terminals. navvarn.sjofartsverket.se/Navigationsvar…

South Baltic sea is experiencing a newish type of GNSS-jamming. It is affecting units at sea level far and wide, much further than one ground based jammer can reach.

The most intense attack so far took place as the political elite of Denmark and 100k visitors met at Bornholm. Data for animation above is the signal levels that RINEX stations receive from various GNSS-constellations.
Last year a limited span of frequencies were affected. 2025 all frequencies/bands are affected. BeiDou, not illustrated (noisy).

The Bornholm station is used as example.

There is an estimated 1 in 10k-100k years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks are coincidental.
Data is hard to get by but no matter which real data or reasonable assumption one picks it is very unlikely all 8 of them are explained by chance.
🧵 Illustration of a 1 in 108 908 years chance that all 8 of the Nov 2024 - Jan 2025 Baltic Sea cable breaks happens with present background levels. Above is 1 in 10 609 years illustrated.

Washington Post has again managed to find anon sources saying Russia is not doing bad things in the Baltic Sea.

They got the infographic quite wrong, so I fixed it.

They also have a named source, within mil intel, completely contradicting their headline.

Nice one WaPo!
Washington Post today presented a wholly incomplete infographics on Baltic Sea infrastructure incidents.

Actually damaged structures: 13, presented by WaPo as 4-5.

Actual # incidents: 4, WaPo found 3.

Here is the fix.

'If something were to happen Denmark might have to answer to why JAZZ was not boarded and inspected'

Experts agree: Denmark should inspect broken tanker JAZZ. No one thinks they will

Naval officer, maritime law scholar + analyst says 'Do it'

DK authorities: no reply. URL👇 Original link: danwatch.dk/skyggeskib-bro…
Archive-link: archive.is/0nGfY

Excited intel bots project:

Leading online authorities on shipping, @johnkonrad & @mercoglianos, are popular targets in the network of intel bots I am looking into.

Bots are mainly agreeing and praising, but sometimes seemingly nudging them in other direction. Hard to say from limited material. Some example posts:
1 Snarky
2 Strong agree
3 Poor bot cant sleep

In total the bots I found have posted or quoted John and Sal 69 times, but that is likely just a fraction of the total.

I have identified 28 bots targeting intel/mil/geopol/logistics/energy people. They reply, follow and quote and are most often very enthusiastic.

End game is unknown, but a guess is recruitment or information gathering. Maybe just influence.

Anyway, here they are, in network shape. Some of the texts the excited intel-bots produce and post to other users.

Will eventually be released in a more sane format.