Florian Mueller Profile picture
Jun 16 5 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Saturday (6/17) at 12 noon Eastern Time / 9 AM Pacific Time / 5 PM UK Time / 6 PM Central European Time: analysis of #Microsoft and #Activision's opposition to the @FTC's motion for preliminary injunction. Their filings are due today (Friday) by midnight. twitter.com/i/spaces/1YqKD…
I will write a blog post about the same subject prior to that Twitter Space, but my blog's audience overwhelmingly has a professional background in this field. The purpose of the Twitter Space is to explain it in basic terms and make the whole topic more accessible.

#UnblockABK
Recording has been activated this time around.

I activated it last time, too, but then accidentally started a new Twitter Space instead of entering the one I had already created. Shouldn't happen tomorrow.
As for structure:

I'll be the only speaker because there'll be only about 9 hours between the court filings and the Twitter Space, part of which I need just for my own analysis.

I'll provide an overview at the beginning, so the structure will be clear.

Will try to answer Q's.
The focus will be exclusively on the FTC preliminary injunction process. I'll put it into the wider procedural context at the start, but only at a high level, not much detail. We'll need the time for the arguments raised by Microsoft and Activision, and for the legal standard.

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More from @FOSSpatents

Jun 17
I'll share some key quotes here.

"The U.S. antitrust agencies have rarely sought to enjoin
vertical mergers and have lost every recent case when they tried. Indeed, the FTC is asking this Court to be the first in decades to find a vertical merger unlawful."

🧵1/X
As for the foreclosure theory (withdrawing CoD from rival platforms): they say the court doesn't just have to take their word for it.

"This is the exceptional case where the Court can rely on actions rather than words."

🧵2/X
They point to commitment to bring ABK games to Game Pass; CoD deal with Nintendo; offer to Valve, and Valve said they could rely on Microsoft anyway; various cloud streaming agreements; commitment to EC (but valid worldwide) re. streaming rights; and parity offer to #Sony

🧵3/X
Read 45 tweets
Jun 17
Activision's stock closed at approx. $82 on Friday, still a huge get spread (offer is $95) and arguably driven in large part by commercial success rather than merger expectations.

It's important to understand the reasons why the spread doesn't reflect deal chances:

🧵1/4
The price is not due to total consensus but the mix of a diversity of views. A week ago large bets were actually being placed on the deal going through, apparently in response to the FTC's decision to schedule a meeting on short notice (to vote on the PI effort).

🧵2/4
Wall St. focuses very much on statistics from the past rather than uniqueness of unprecedented situation.

Had a call with a major fund (not the one who came to London) who believed a TRO would be needed for several months because they just saw that in a far smaller case.

🧵3/4
Read 5 tweets
Jun 15
ATM the @FTC has only one Administrative Law Judge (ALJ). Now they're going to hire another one. Looks like they're going to bring ever more litigation before their in-house court (despite post-Axon constitutionality challenges). And the commissioners just overrule them anyway!
So one could sum it up like this:
They need another ALJ so that their Office of ALJs can handle more cases -- but with a recent rule change they downgraded those ALJ decisions from "initial decision" to "recommended decision", making it automatic that the commissioners decide. twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This means they need another ALJ so the ALJ can write more "recommended decisions" that won't really matter because the commissioners have the final say.

It's farcical, frankly.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 14
Just updated my profile: "Due to the high volume of questions re. Microsoft-ABK, I can't answer individual questions anymore, especially repetitive ones. I offer my tweets and blog posts."

I'll read your questions and comments, and if I see that there's a lot of interest in… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
That said, I do appreciate it when people flag interesting news that I may not have seen yet. Quite often I found out about new developments that way. But please don't expect me to comment individually.
2 examples of tweets I did today because someone asked and I thought many more might be interested:

1. why Judge Corley didn't enter yesterday's order herself
2. whether MSFT-ABK can appeal should the FTC unexpectedly get a PI

Links:

1.

"I've been… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 6 tweets
Jun 12
Just returned from speakers' dinner and found a copy of the FTC's motion for a temporary restraining order (PO) and preliminary injunction (PI) against Microsoft and Activision Blizzard.

Obviously didn't discuss the Microsoft v. CMA appeal with the judge, but we did talk.

🧵1/X
His keynote tomorrow will be about AI as he told the organizer and me before that dinner, so I don't anticipate any reference to games industry mergers (and he wouldn't talk about a pending case anyway, obviously).

🧵2/X
FTC motion: "Both a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction are necessary because Microsoft and Activision have represented that they may consummate the Proposed Acquisition at any time [REDACTED] without any further notice to the Commission."

🧵3/X
Read 19 tweets
Jun 12
The @CATribunal 's president Mr Justice Marcus Smith has started the court session. He's now reminding everyone of restrictions concerning the livestream.

All three members of the CAT panel are here (last time the President was alone).

🧵1/X
Microsoft's counsel obviously wants everyone to respect the rules regarding streaming.

🧵2/X
Microsoft inquired about the hearing date. They would like to start the hearing on Friday, July 28.

🧵3/X
Read 40 tweets

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