Folks, the last budget speech has some gems that reveal GoK's inability to present a coherent taxation policy. On the one hand, GoK is dedicating Kshs. 270M to expand sugar production 1/N #IEAKEBudget2023
And then claims later that sugar consumption is drivign up the pevalnece of diabetes in households and thereby justfoes imposition of an Excise tax equivalent to Kshs. 5 per kilogramme to cure this negative externality. #IEAKEBudget2023 2/N
Reading those two shows @IEAKenya realization that economic reasoning on tax policy has been abandoned for convenient use of instruments to achieve maximum revenue and even then they dont align objectives with the design. #IEAKEBudget2023 3/N
Example 2: In this excerpt, the cabinet secretary suggests that there is need to apply an excise tax on imports of fish products to protect Kenyan industry. This statement is staggeringly wrong both in principle and fact. #IEAKEBudget2023 4/N
Data from the Annual Report (2021) of the Kenya Fisheries Service shows that Kenya has a supply of 163,000 MT annually against a demand of ~500,000 MT. #IEAKEBudget2023 5/N
Imported fish accounts for 21000 MT and this is just about 5% of the deficit. Pray, what local production is the GoK proposing to protect through his measure? #IEAKEBudget2023 6/N
On principle, it is a statement of conceptual confusion (unbecoming of a professor of economics) to apply an excise tax as a trade protection measure. #IEAKEBudget2023 7/N
We think that @NAssemblyKE should fix this tendency to abuse the principles of taxation by applying Excise taxes liberally to items and services for which it is not suitable. #IEAKEBudget2023 8/N
🧵Folks, please stop saying that " We dont have a problem with any tax that government imposes". This may be politically correct, but it shows a concession that even the constitution does not allow. #IEAKEBudget2023 1/N
We should not have to live in poverty so that GoK becomes rich. That's a trade off that does not improve welfare. #IEAKEBudget2023 2/N
There is no clause in the Constitution of Kenya 2010 that proclaims that GoK may impose any taxes or rates as it wishes to. Article 210 allows parliament to impose, waive or vary in accordance with legsilation. #IEAKEBudget2023 3/N
🧵Folks, a fallacy that has taken strong foundation in Kenya's TV pundits is that countries are in an arms race to raise revenue as a share of GDP and that Kenya is doing badly by taking only 17% per annum. 1/N
This claim is nonsense for two reasons: 1. Government claims on your income has an opportunity cost which makes you have less resources an shrinks the size of markets 2/N
2. When GoK takes in 17% of GDP in today's revenues and supplements that with a fiscal deficit of 5% of GDP, then the real spending is at least > (17+5) because the interst ayments on debt add to the burden of government. 3/N
Folks, do you know that the Kenya Vision 2030 states that by the year 2030, 60% (sixty percent) of Kenya's population will reside in Kenya's urban areas. And has a chart with projections to support it (page 119). 1/N
That number will not be reached but it is part of the underlying claim supporting the drive for low-cost housing in urban areas. 2/N
Again, these long-term planning documents are based on fuzzy claims with the knowledge that in 2030, we will have forgotten how much we paid for the drafters of the plan and ended up with White Elephants like the SGR. 3/N
🧵 Folks, I have tried to understand where sacred estimates of the housing deficit in Kenya come from and I remain unconvinced that the numbers presented are defensible. 1/N
The Vision2030 (pp 119) started this claim of a serious housing deficit by arguing: " It is estimated that of a total of 150,000 housing units required annually in urban areas, only 35,000 units are produced". A bland claim with an unsupported source. 2/N
It continues same page: "The shortage of housing for low-income households is particularly acute in urban areas, since only an estimated 6000 units, or 20% of the total number of all houses produced, cater for this group". 3/N
Folks, there are 3 PAYE levels applicable to monthly income in Kenya. The proposed Finance Bill would mean an additional one at 35%) 🧵 1. 0- 24,000 - 10% 2. Any > 24001 & <32333- 25% 3. All additional >32333- 30%
1/N
So this means that there are 3 possible Marginal Tax Rates determined by the Income Tax Law. The MTR is the highest tax rate applicable to your income and these can only be the 3 above (10%, 25%, and 30%). 2/N
While there are only 3 MTR levels, the Average Tax Rate that an income earner faces defines what proportion of their total income is paid as the tax obligation and this varies. 3/N