Thread by @AfricaACSS

#Mali has a constitutional referendum on Sunday, June 18.

What you need to know 🧵⤵️

A lot has happened in Mali in the past three years.

And disinformation has constantly been used to distract and muddy the water. See:

https://twitter.com/AfricaACSS/status/1625275510937853958

But it’s important to keep an eye on two consistent throughlines 🔗🐍💥

1. a small cohort of Russian-backed military officers seized power and are seeking to maintain their authority at all costs 🐍

africacenter.org/spotlight/debu…

2. the security situation in the country has continually worsened under their rule 💥

africacenter.org/spotlight/mali…

These two threads are the backdrop of the upcoming constitutional referendum organized by the junta.

As Kalilou Sidibé, a Malian political scientist in Bamako, makes clear, this referendum is purely about the military’s objective to maintain power 🐍

lemonde.fr/afrique/articl…

The referendum aims to pave the way for the junta to retain power by:

🐍Providing amnesty for their coups

🐍Removing the current transitional legal framework to create a legal opening for Goïta to run for president, which was is currently prohibited

🐍Increasing the powers of the presidency over the government and over legislation

Knowing the referendum's outcomes would be unpopular and contradict their repeated promises to step aside and transition back to democratic rule, the junta has:

🐍Pushed it through w/o addressing concerns from civ society or civilian political actors

🐍Ignored issues raised by local elections observers

🐍Squashed or intimidated independent media from reporting on political events

🐍Moved the vote forward w/o involving int'l observers

Like each of the previous occasions in which the junta has extended the transition and thus their power, disinformation has been rampant and malicious in targeting those who criticize the ruling junta and their Wagner backers ahead of the referendum.

benbere.org/dossiers-benbe…

The junta’s goal of holding onto power is colliding with the country’s other recent throughline: deteriorating security💥

Despite basing claims to power on a promised capacity to improve security, the junta has been unable to provide security for much of the country, leaving large areas unable to vote in the referendum.

This particularly the case in central and parts of northern Mali:

💥In Central Mali Voters may only be able to cast ballots in the administrative capitals particularly in the region of Mopti.

💥Nearly the entire region of Menaka in northern Mali is outside of state control.

💥While the junta has been in power, insecurity has spread and worsened affecting communities in the south and around Bamako.

africacenter.org/spotlight/mali…

The results of the referendum should not be the story next week. The past three years and what they have cost Malian citizens in terms of security and the country's democracy should.

Finally, it is important to note that those in charge of tallying the vote are far from being independent. The administrators were selected by the junta to rubber stamp the electoral process.